25 Random Thoughts about the Oscars

All right, here they are...it was a bit of a day today so I didn't get the opportunity to post this over lunch, but luckily texts & messages are enough that I can piece together my initial thoughts.  As you all know, this year's nominees for the Academy Awards came out today, and as that is always a joyous occasion, I thought I'd indulge in our annual tradition of sharing my "train of thought" takes on this year nominees below.  Enjoy!

1. Don't Look Up becomes the first Best Picture nominee to feature five Oscar-winning actors in the cast (DiCaprio, Lawrence, Rylance, Streep, & Blanchett) and not get a single acting nomination since How the West Was Won in 1963.

2. I have to assume the frontrunner is The Power of the Dog followed by Belfast, right?  You could make an argument for other films, but these are the ones that clearly hold water.

3. Drive My Car owes a debt of gratitude to the near uniform support it received from critics groups that kept it alive all season.

4. Spielberg didn't drop out like so many thought-instead it was Denis Villeneuve, who somehow missed despite a daunting ten nominations overall.

5. Javier Bardem is giving such a boring performance...seriously, I cannot believe that if Oscar was going to go the route of a former winner they didn't go with Nic Cage.

6. Will Smith is winning Best Actor.  Cumberbatch might be getting credit for a future win, but Smith is a Grade-A movie star without an Oscar in an era where Grade-A movie stars are incredibly rare.  The Oscars are going to want to give him this in the same way they did John Wayne, Paul Newman, & Leonardo DiCaprio.  Take it to the bank.

7. On the flip side, no one has a clue who is winning Best Actress.  Kidman makes the most sense since she has a Globe, I guess, but you could make a legitimate argument for any of the five nominees (honestly, this would be the perfect time to give it Chastain if they're planning on doing it).

8. There's probably more to be said for it another day, but the biggest miss of the day was House of Gucci, which considering that movie was generally terrible is a happy ending for all involved.  You have to wonder if Lady Gaga's ridiculous press tour was enough to sink her this season-in a digital age with a younger Academy that might have been the death knell of what otherwise could've been an Oscar win.

9. Trading Gaga for Penelope Cruz and Jared Leto for Jesse Plemons is a win-win-win-win situation.

10. JK Simmons getting in for a nothing role makes both total sense & seems like such a waste (Mike Faist is literally right there in a Best Picture nominee elevating a role that's usually a nothing part...come on, Academy, do better).

11. Judi Dench gets her first nomination in a decade and ties to become the fourth most-nominated actress in Oscar history.  Also, you have to wonder if Belfast had marketed Catriona Balfe as Best Actress instead of supporting if this would've been a happier morning for her.

12. Flee making it in all three categories is a lesson to International Feature contenders-submit documentaries & animated movies.

13. Also, note to Spain-submit Pedro films always.  You would've gotten in this year if you had (and Pedro probably would've gotten in for writing).

14. We kind of just ignored that Nightmare Alley was crushing the tech awards all season...this Best Picture nomination was probably something we should've seen coming.

15. How did Disney get three nominations for Best Animated Feature Film & none for Animated Short?

16. I am genuinely concerned for the health of the Best Animated Feature Film category-this is the second year in a row where Disney squeezed it for all of its juice AND all of the nominees were the same five you could've picked out months ago...part of the fun here has always been that it's an unexpected category...what gives?

17. Why couldn't Don't Look Up have suffered a similar fate to House of Gucci?

18. Beyonce, Billie Eilish, Van Morrison, Reba McEntire...the performances should be great (I still haven't given up the idea that Beyonce is going to win this in an upset).

19. The devil works hard, but Diane Warren works harder.

20. Belfast missing in Editing & Cinematography makes The Power of the Dog not just a favorite, but a strong one.

21. Coming 2 America is the sequel that succeeds where The Suicide Squad failed in Makeup.

22. West Side Story had a good morning, but misses in Adapted Screenplay & Editing mean it will need to settle for Supporting Actress as its big win.

23. Cyrano is definitely the film that got dealt the worst hand this morning due to its release date (which other films like Worst Person in the World didn't struggle with), but still managed to pick up something...Peter Dinklage should be pissed though, as he could've gotten Bardem's nod if they'd released in November.

24. Denzel Washington getting to nine nominations further cements how ridiculous it is that he's never been cited for a BAFTA...also, who is winning the BAFTA for Best Actress now?  Reinsve, Haim, or Gaga?

25. Spider-Man and Shang-Chi get Visual Effects nods proving that my double Marvel theory was right...they will not, however, end the Marvel drought as Dune is a guaranteed winner here.