What Would It Take for the Democrats to Hold the House?

Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV), one of the Dem incumbents most
helped by redistricting

Politics is a series of patterns, but it is never a foregone conclusion.  Take 2002, for example.  By virtually any definition, 2002 should've gone differently for the Democrats.  The party out-of-power in the White House had always lost seats-the last time it hadn't happened was 1934.  With Democrats just inches from a majority (in 2000 they'd won 212 seats, just six seats short of a majority), Rep. Dick Gephardt seemed near certain to get his long desire of becoming the House Speaker.  But Gephardt ended up having massive egg on his face.  The Missouri Democrat did not account for the fact that Republicans, in the wake of 9/11, would be able to ride the coattails of George W. Bush's popularity to gain seats in the House, and hold the House for another two years (it would actually be four years before that would happen, by which point Gephardt's years of trying to get two of DC's top jobs would be over).

Twenty years later, Joe Biden is nowhere near as popular as George W. Bush, despite having to guide the country through two "9/11-level" tragedies (the Covid pandemic and the January 6th terrorist attacks at the Capitol).  As a result, the Republicans are heavily favored to take back the House (and have at worst a 50/50 shot at taking the Senate).  But in a deeply polarized country (and considering we're still 11 months out from the election), I thought it would be worth asking the question of what a Democratic hold would look like (if it was possible), and in particular take a look at how well the Democrats have done in redistricting in 2022.

Obviously, in 2022 in order for that to happen, a few things need to occur.  One, the Democrats need better numbers.  This isn't just to do with legislation, but also that Joe Biden's approval rating needs to go up.  The two ways that would happen are if the Covid pandemic were to subside and if the economy rebounded.  It's not out-of-the-question that both of these things happen, albeit they need to happen before Independence Day for Biden to be able to recover (based on historical trends).  Omicron has become so universal across the country that some Democrats have started to even treat it like an after-thought, something that will happen & will largely impact Republicans, who are disproportionately unvaccinated compared to their voters.  It's not clear if this will work, but it's also clear that mask mandates or quarantine restrictions are all that popular either.  Look at the way that Jared Polis, who has largely taken on a "either get vaccinated or get Covid" approach, has seen his approval ratings jump in comparison to Joe Biden's in Colorado.  Biden taking this approach, particularly with Omicron (which if South Africa is any indication, could peak as early as mid-to-late-January), might pay off with his base, even if it's questionable how good this strategy is for the larger health of the country (particularly the country's Republicans).

Almost all of the economic indicators are on Biden's side as well.  Unemployment is at record lows right now & it's clear that Biden avoided a catastrophe by largely keeping the supply chains going (the administration is going so far as to say that Biden "saved Christmas").  It's clear that inflation (specifically gas & milk prices) need to find a way to center out, but if Biden can do that, the economy could be in spectacular shape for much of 2022.  Combined with a waning pandemic, and throw in some red meat for the Democrats in the form of a pared-down BBB bill (for all of the grumbling about Joe Manchin, the Manchin bill would be crazy popular if it passed with much of America), and you have the recipe for Biden to be considerably more popular in 2022.

The third leg of this was always going to be redistricting, which is where I think the biggest question mark lies.  The Democrats did very, very well so far in redistricting.  While this isn't done yet, it appears probable that the party largely avoided catastrophe.  Almost no incumbent Democrats were left in districts that were totally DOA-so far only three incumbent Democrats are competing in the same district (in Michigan, Illinois, & Georgia), but only Georgia is a total wash.  In Michigan & Illinois those primaries can be offset by other, bluer districts on the maps that happened as a result (in Michigan, I still expect Nancy Pelosi to try & convince either Andy Levin or Haley Stevens to run in the 10th, which is a marginal district but not impossible, and even if they forfeit the 10th the likely-open 3rd district would be a worthy consolation prize).

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA)

Democrats, meanwhile shored up a lot of support and were far more aggressive in redistricting than the Republicans were.  In Nevada, they gave all three of their incumbents "Lean Democrat" seats that might go down in a solid red wave, but in a marginal year or a neutral one (which is what Biden would need in November to hold the House), they could all three hold (had they not redistricted, we'd be seeing Rep. Susie Lee going down in November for sure-now she has a shot).  In New Mexico, Oregon, & Illinois, Democrats drew multiple new Biden districts that they could potentially pick up in November (Oregon & Illinois seem certain to give Democrats another seat, the latter potentially two more).  The Democrats have at worst "lost" four seats this cycle (Georgia, Arizona, New Jersey, & Texas seem near-certain to have had a lost this cycle), but gained them all back in IL/OR/CA.  It is possible that by the end of this redistricting cycle, there were will be more Biden 2020 districts than there currently are, not less, which seemed unthinkable just a few months ago (there are a half dozen states left that will dictate whether this is the case).

The big question for November is whether or not Democrats can carry districts that Biden won by 0.1-5 points, as there are a lot of these.  A good example would be sophomore Rep. Elaine Luria, who is, after redistricting, in a seat that Biden won by 2-points.  Listen to virtually any armchair elections expert on Twitter, and they'll tell you she's doomed in 2022, but that's not necessarily the case.  Luria just needs a popular Biden, and to get the same voters who voted for her in 2020.  There was a different situation where Luria might've been in a district that went for Trump in 2020, but that's not the case.  At least two Democrats (outgoing Rep. Cheri Bustos & Elissa Slotkin) are now representing Biden districts after representing Trump districts.

The success of Democratic incumbents & challengers in seats that Joe Biden won by less than 5-points is going to largely dictate what Kevin McCarthy's majority looks like, or if he'll have one at all.  Democrats are favored to lose the House based on public polling & on historical precedence.  If they somehow manage to stop that, it will not just be because of Joe Biden's recovering poll numbers; it will be because redistricting gave them room in a larger-than-expected number of seats to play with a neutral environment.