(Editor's Note: I wrote this article this morning, before the terrorist events at the US Capitol. This is a blog dedicated in part to elections coverage, so I felt remiss in not publishing my thoughts about such an important election night, but wanted to state in advance why there are no references to the incidents at the US Capitol in this article)
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| Senators-Elect Raphael Warnock & Jon Ossoff (D-GA) |
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| Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) |
If you were watching cable news this morning, it felt a bit odd. While they hadn't called the race for Jon Ossoff, and as a result they were officially supposed to be "both sides-ing" the results, it felt nothing like when Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump...but it probably should have. This, unlike the Biden victory, was not expected. Two months ago, when Democrats lost races in Maine, North Carolina, & Iowa (all of which were assumed to be easier targets than Georgia), few would've expected this result. While I officially posited that this would be a tossup, in my head I assumed that Perdue would win by 3-points, Loeffler by slightly less, but we'd be looking at a 52-48 Senate. If Sara Gideon couldn't win in much bluer Maine, how was it two men who'd never held political office would win?
Them doing so is a huge moment for the Democrats, and you could tell when Chuck Schumer did his press conference this morning that he didn't expect this outcome either. We'll talk about this in a different article (probably on Friday), but their win underlines the power of straight-ticket voting-with Loeffler & Perdue's defeats, only six senators represent states that didn't go for their party for the presidential election, and only one of those did so in the past two presidential cycles (Susan Collins of Maine). Biden had appeared poised to be the first president since George HW Bush to start his first term without full control of Congress-that's not happening now. Mitch McConnell seemed probable to win a fourth term as Senate Majority Leader-he will now be in the minority, and thus will have less say not only over what happens in the Senate, but will not be the obvious "de facto" leader of the Republican Party. And in what is likely to be her last term as Speaker, Nancy Pelosi will be able to craft a pretty impressive legacy to get legislation through. There are limits to what they can do (more in a second), but this is a very big deal, for my money just as important as winning back the White House.
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| Attorney General-Designate Merrick Garland |
With control of the Senate, a few things are going to become much easier for President-Elect Joe Biden when he takes office. Many assume that Biden will serve one term (I'm still undecided on that), but if he does, he'll want to craft a pretty lengthy legacy right away, and will be able to do so on a number of issues due to reconciliation. While the filibuster remains a thing (and several Democratic senators have expressed reluctance to eliminating it), climate bills, tax reform, stimulus payments, and some immigration reform can be done through reconciliation, which only requires a 51-50 vote (not sixty). Additionally, Mitch McConnell allowed a number of vulnerable Republicans (like Susan Collins & Marco Rubio) to not take tough votes on bills-that's no longer an option as while the filibuster can block some legislation, it can't block votes from being taken. It's possible that as a result something like the Equality Act will be able to pass through the Senate since McConnell was holding it up more than the lack of a majority to pass it, and the return of "pork" in bills will be used as a weapon to get certain senators in blue/purple states to vote for an issue or risk wrath from constituents.
Additionally, the biggest win here for Biden is that he's able to get confirmations through the Senate. There were members of Biden's cabinet (like OMB Director-designate Neera Tanden and HHS Secretary-designate Xavier Becerra) whom McConnell had publicly insinuated were DOA in his Senate. They are now guaranteed up-and-down votes, and are probably going to be confirmed. Democrats will talk about Joe Manchin, whose moderation will keep certain progressive items off-the-table (Medicare 4 All is still a pipe dream without more Dem senators), but Manchin is probably going to vote for most, if not all, of Biden's nominees unless there's a Betsy DeVos-level misstep, and it's probable that when it comes down to a vote that someone like Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski might also back them. The same goes for Biden's judicial nominations-while Kamala Harris may cast more tie-breaking votes than a VP normally does, Biden's nominees will now get hearings, and he'll have a say on the courts (it's possible McConnell would've just said "no" to every one of his nominations had he stayed in charge). Biden is already exercising this this morning by nominating Merrick Garland to be Supreme Court. It's clear that he was waiting to see if he could afford to vacate Garland's seat (an important federal court seat that McConnell surely wouldn't have filled), but with a Senate majority that seems certain now.
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| President Donald Trump (R-FL) |
We'll know more as the weeks go on and we learn about some of the internal polls & complaints that come out of these races, but it goes without saying that Donald Trump is the biggest problem for the Republicans, and much of the blame for them losing falls squarely on his shoulders. Two months ago, David Perdue beat Jon Ossoff (even if it was just with a plurality). In the jungle primary for the Loeffler seat, the Republicans had a majority of the votes. They just needed to sink that basket, and history was on their side. Democrats historically don't turn out for runoff races just after they won the White House (see 2008 in Georgia).
But Trump dogged the elections process, falsely claiming fraud & that he'd actually won and likely alienated voters who went for Biden/Perdue in November (there appears to be some evidence those voters switched allegiance). He put Loeffler & Perdue in impossible situations, being forced to side with him on an unpopular challenge to the electoral college, and made them run hard right, embracing QAnon and racist dog-whistle politics (Loeffler's attacks on Warnock would've made George Wallace proud). This resulted in the Democrats gaining massive turnout, which Republicans couldn't match, and considering Trump saying their votes weren't going to be counted, it's not hard to see why so many didn't bother to show up in ice-cold January. It's hard to tell what this means for Trump. He clearly has power when he's off-the-ballot in primaries, but when he's not on the ballot his party doesn't have the kind of turnout he got from less-consistent voters, so his power largely results in him being a Republican kingmaker. If he can't actually win them general elections though, one wonders how long the GOP will allow him unchecked influence without criticism.
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| Sens-Elect Ossoff & Warnock |
While the majority is more key than any individuals here, it's impossible to deny that last night was a very, very big moment for Raphael Warnock & Jon Ossoff, particularly since neither of these men are what you picture as the kind of closers who would win an unlikely Senate majority. Part of Schumer's surprise had to stem from the fact that neither of these men were candidates the DSCC wanted in these races. Stacey Abrams said no, so did Lucy McBath, Michelle Nunn, & Jason Carter. Warnock endured months of criticism (including from me) for not being able to gain a foothold in the polls, to the point where at one point it looked like he'd miss the runoff entirely. Jon Ossoff had become something of an internet meme for his loss in 2017 (nicknamed by Republicans as "Lossoff" on right-wing social media sites), and at only 33 appeared to be headed to another slim loss, probably dooming his political future. Neither man had ever held political office before, something almost unheard of in the US Senate, where virtually all figures had been on a ballot (successfully) before.
That all changed last night. Kudos go out to both of them for running a significantly better runoff than they did a general election. While Republicans were hampered by catering to Trump, the Democrats were able to harness their message, putting out cute videos of the two men palling around Georgia, insisting that their supporters vote for them as a ticket. They also played to each other's strengths. Warnock's position as a prominent black preacher allowed him to campaign in rural Southwestern Georgia, where he saw strong numbers from the African-American communities in this region of the state (and where both men improved on Biden's numbers, and Ossoff's as well, from November). Ossoff in turn attacked Kelly Loeffler on the campaign trail frequently, particularly hounding her about her racist attacks on Warnock (and her being photographed by a member of the Klan), an attack that would've been harder for Warnock to levy at Loeffler (which was surely her hope in making the attacks). This worked. The two of them likely won because of these concerted efforts to win as a unit, and as a result they now become stars on the national stage. Warnock, who turned out to be the better candidate, will have to run again in 2022, but proved last night he has an enormous appeal in the Peach State's African-American communities, and as the only black Democrat ever elected to the Senate from the South, he'll have a wide platform. At 33, Jon Ossoff goes from a potential two-time loser, to a national star (he'll probably be on a Kamala Harris shortlist in 2024 if she's the nominee), and has six years to establish himself after a slim victory. These are big wins, and launched two brand new voices onto the national stage.
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| State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D-GA) |
Ossoff, Warnock, Biden, & Schumer were the big winners last night, but ask any Democrat worth their salt about Tuesday, and they'll tell you that that list is missing a name: Stacey Abrams. Abrams was criticized frequently (including, again, by me) for not running for one of these seats, striking while the iron was hot. She was right, we were wrong. Abrams was able to use her Fair Fight Georgia campaign to not only deliver the state for Ossoff, Warnock, and in November for Joe Biden, but to provide a template for the Democratic Party in other states with large communities of color (the State Chairs of Florida, North Carolina, & Texas had better be calling her). It's probable that she'd get the DNC Chairmanship if she wanted it, but she's obviously got her eyes on a different prize-being Georgia's Governor. And after last night, she proved she's got what it takes to give that race another go.
The bigger question about 2022 isn't about Abrams, but about her opponent. Gov. Brian Kemp likely saw any chances he had of rebounding in 2022 disappear last night as yet another staggering loss under his governance occurred, and Donald Trump will be more than happy to lay that loss at his feet. One wonders if Trump ally and former Rep. Doug Collins is considering a Kemp challenge or going after Warnock after last night, but even if he shifts away from the gubernatorial race, it's likely that Kemp is getting a challenge. We will save a conversation about Donald Trump's influence on Republican primaries for another day (a while away-I want to learn what his post-presidency is like), but I can say with confidence that Stacey Abrams is more likely to be her party's nominee in 2022 than the incumbent governor is.
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