5 Thoughts On Rob Portman's Retirement

Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)

Occasionally politics throws you a curveball, and this morning we got an announcement I did not expect.  Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), a two-term, conservative but mild-mannered senator from the Buckeye State, has announced he will not seek reelection in 2022.  This was not expected.  Portman was a prodigious fundraiser, and quite popular in his home state.  As you'll see below, he might've been the target of a rightwing challenger, but there are better options both in Ohio and in the Senate if the GOP wanted to go that route, so I doubt a fear-of-losing was the reason he left.  At 65, Portman has left office before (one could've seen a world where he was Secretary of State or Treasury in 2016 had it been Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio who were the Republican president rather than Donald Trump), and it's possible he'll come back in the executive branch, but this likely means the end of his elected political career.  Let's take a look at five thoughts I had as a result of this news.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)

1. The Republican Field is a Free-for-All

Ohio Republicans have a wide bench of potential challengers to go after this seat, and considering that there is a slow list of spots for them to advance statewide (and all of the House R's are in the minority, which is pretty dull), I suspect we'll see a bonanza of Republicans get into this race.  Already Reps. Mike Turner & Steve Stivers are publicly musing about a run, and it's probable we'll see other names like former State Treasurer Josh Mandel (who has $4.3 million left in his campaign coffers that he could use for such a run), former Rep. Jim Renacci, and Lt. Gov. Jon Husted consider their options.  In 2018 Mitch McConnell tried publicly to woo author JD Vance into the race against Sen. Sherrod Brown, and he could run this time (which I suspect would complicate Amy Adams & Glenn Close's bids for awards glory this year as they starred in Vance's Hillbilly Elegy adaptation, and will now be in the awkward position of thanking a man who would need to hug Donald Trump pretty hard to win a seat).

And of course, it needs to be mentioned that Rep. Jim Jordan will give this race a serious look after Portman's retirement.  Jordan is a Trump die-hard whose involvement in the Ohio State University abuse scandal makes him a difficult sell in a general election (but his Trump allegiance's would help in a primary).  Ohio is a red state now (at its most charitable, it's pink), but it did elect a Democrat in 2018, and Jordan would be uniquely vulnerable in a primary (think Kris Kobach in Kansas) in a way none of these other men would be, so his entry into this race will be closely-watched.

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH)

2. Does Tim Ryan Finally Make His Move?

This race likely moves from "Safe R" to either "Likely" or "Leans R" depending on how you consider Jordan's chances.  That being said, at this juncture this is not a lost cause like Kentucky or South Carolina were in 2020, as Ohio is more marginal at the presidential level than either of those two states, and Jordan's potential entry is enough to give one pause.  The big question for the Democrats will be if Joe Biden's handling of the Covid virus is A) competent & considered so by the populace and B) if that has enough hold that Biden might be able to duplicate a scenario similar to George W. Bush in 2002 where Democrats could gain seats in a midterm.

In order to do that, they'll need to recruit a Tier 1 candidate who has to know that they might be entering a race that they have no way of winning without someone like Jordan on the ballot.  The best candidate I can think of (other than LeBron James, who probably isn't going to cut his lucrative basketball career short for a tossup Senate race) is Rep. Tim Ryan.  Ryan has forgone runs for statewide office repeatedly, but 2022 gives him the opportunity to pursue an open seat race and he might have to if he wants to stay in Congress.  Ryan's seat is a potential redistricting opportunity, as it's already shifting red & could go further in that direction after congressional reapportionment.  In 2012, Rep. Joe Donnelly was in a similar scenario, and managed to luck into a general election he would win, getting the Democrats a Senate seat that they couldn't hold, but at least got to occupy for six years.  Ryan could be in a similar scenario, though like the Republicans, there is a risk that the Democrats also screw up in the primary (nominating State Sen. Nina Turner would ensure the Democrats lose against any candidate, and it's not out-of-the-question she runs).  Ryan vs. Jordan would probably be a Slight R, but it has enough question marks that this would be a race worth watching.  It's worth noting that if Ryan won this race in an upset, it'd give the Democrats a seat not just in 2022, but also 2024/2026, and in some ways would counteract the loss of Susan Collins' seat last year until the Democrats have a chance to beat her again in five years (it'd also give Ryan, who clearly has designs on the presidency after 2020, a more traditional perch to pursue that office).

Sen. Portman with former President Trump

3. Does Portman Now Support Conviction?

The more immediate question for Portman is not who will replace him, but instead how does this impact the math on Portman's decision on impeachment.  Portman has been vocal about some of his frustrations with Trump, and while he has stated publicly that he doesn't know if you can constitutionally impeach a person who is no longer in office, this opens him up to voting against impeachment in a way he didn't have before.  A good corollary would be Sen. Pat Toomey, who after he announced he was not seeking office in 2022, seemed considerably more open to fighting against Trump.  Both men, it's worth noting, were not part of the Hawley/Cruz movement to decertify the election results in Arizona & Pennsylvania.  While it's unlikely that there will be enough Republicans to convict Trump, Portman does have a considerably larger berth to go against Trump without having to worry about his reelection after today.

Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH)

4. Can Mike DeWine Breathe a Sigh of Relief?

Up until this morning, it was not Portman's seat that many ambitious Trump acolytes were looking at, but Gov. Mike DeWine's.  DeWine is unusual in that he has generally high approval ratings (he is well-liked on both sides for his approach to fighting the Covid-19 pandemic), but because of his outspoken attitude toward former President Trump, many in the GOP assumed that he was going to get a primary challenge, likely from either Renacci or Jordan.  DeWine was one of several Republicans (along with Doug Ducey & Brian Kemp) that Trump seemed intent on focusing in on in the coming year, and as a result was vulnerable despite being a sure-thing for the general election.  While he could still get challenged, all of those Republicans have a much better shot at winning higher office by pursuing the Senate, and without those Republicans running against DeWine, ambitious Democrats (like Ryan or Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley) are going to go after the Senate seat as well, since they know they can't beat DeWine in the general.  No one wins more than Mike DeWine with this retirement announcement.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI)

5. Will There Be More Retirements to Come from the Republicans?

Portman's retirement, as I stated above, gives the Democrats an opportunity, even if it doesn't give them a tossup or even a "Leans R" right out-of-the-gate.  That being said, you have to wonder if being stuck in the minority for the first time in six years might make some Republican senators reconsider staying in the US Senate.  Portman's announcement makes it three Republicans (along with Sens. Richard Burr & Pat Toomey) already who have retired, and it's only January 2021.

Some of the potential retirements (like Richard Shelby in Alabama) wouldn't matter in terms of partisan balance, but two senators to focus on are Iowa's Chuck Grassley & Wisconsin's Ron Johnson.  Grassley would be a similar scenario to Portman's-a seat where the Republicans might screw up, and the Democrats have a plausibly good bench (State Auditor Rob Sand being their best option, though Rep. Abby Finkenauer might also be competitive) that could take advantage.  Grassley is 87-years-old and a longtime creature of the Senate who seems intent on running again, but if he doesn't see a feasible path to the majority, it's possible he calls it quits.

Johnson, one could argue, might actually help the Senate Republicans if he retired (since he tends to be a lightning rod), but Wisconsin Republicans would need to find someone who plays well in the suburbs and can turn out Trump-level rural voters without Trump on the ticket (a recipe they couldn't make happen in 2018).  Wisconsin is one of the best shots the Democrats have at a pickup in 2022-a retirement from Johnson might indicate that he thinks that that shot isn't worth adding an "L" to his record.