What Will Lisa Murkowski Do?

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

It's hard in July of an election year to talk about any elections beyond November, and as a general rule I don't.  I think it's impossible to understand what might impact an election in, say, 2024, and it sort of makes politics into a sport rather than something that should have a tangible consequence (i.e. actual legislation).  Also, it's stupid.  A year ago there would have been no way to understand that Donald Trump's popularity and approval would be imploding because of a pandemic he criminally bungled, from which over 140,000 Americans had died and tens of millions had retreated into their homes.  As a result, you will not hear a word about the 2024 race on here until A) a significant figure announces their candidacy or lack thereof or B) we're done with the 2022 midterms.

But I want to talk briefly about a politician who is up for reelection in 2022, as she is in the news right now: Senator Lisa Murkowski.  More than virtually any other Republican in the Senate (save, perhaps, for Mitt Romney), Murkowski is a proper rebel in the modern Republican Party.  While she didn't vote to impeach Donald Trump (an action I suspect she regrets at this point), she has made several key votes against the Trump administration, specifically against the confirmations of Betsy DeVos & Brett Kavanaugh, as well as against Trumpcare.  Unlike Susan Collins, she is the one Republican who genuinely feels like a swing vote these days, and not someone who is posturing.

As a result, her approval ratings in Alaska have dropped significantly.  A recent Public Policy Poll showed her approval rating at only 29%, a significant amount of that drop-in-support coming from the Republican Party.  Murkowski doesn't have to stand for reelection until 2022, so she has time to recover, but this begs the question-what exactly will Murkowski (who is only 63 and likely would want at least one more term) do in 2022?

There are, in my opinion, three options for Murkowski as she looks at her 2022 race.  The first, of course, is retirement.  Murkowski is not blind-she sees that a traditional reelection is not going to be afforded to her at this juncture, and as a result she's probably going to want to save her dignity.  She's had a twenty-year run in the Senate, one that is hallmarked by two really remarkable elections (her come-from-behind victory in 2004 against Tony Knowles and her write-in campaign in 2010), and has made a significant impact for her state (as one of the rare senators who genuinely wants to compromise with the other side, she's oftentimes the cosponsor on major legislation that actually passes).  She also knows that one of her longtime allies in the Senate, Susan Collins, is facing an increasingly likely defeat in November, and will thus have her legacy forever tarnished by her state rejecting her on her final go at the ballot.  Murkowski could just avoid that, potentially cashing in as a well-connected lobbyist for a few years before moving back to Anchorage.

Alyse Galvin (D-AK)

But if she does pursue, there are only two paths-hope for a change of opinion in the Republican Party, or forge on as an independent, possibly one that switches caucuses.  The first is one she's done well, even winning a write-in campaign when she lost the primary, but that was when she was supremely well-liked by the state (not the case anymore) and it required a pretty weak Democratic opponent.  Considering the Democrats' are doing well in Alaska in 2020, they might not be willing to throw in the towel on a three-way race against Murkowski unless there was incentive for them to do so...

Which makes me genuinely wonder if Lisa Murkowski would be willing to switch parties if the Democrats win the Senate.  It'd be a gamble-both decisions here are.  It's possible that the Republican Party forgets about Trump much faster than pundits assume they will, and that her votes against Trump won't matter as much as people busy themselves with a President Biden (I see no path for her to win, and she'd almost certainly retire, if Donald Trump was reelected).  But it's possible that she could win as an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats.  Both Al Gross & Alyse Galvin are running tight campaigns right now in Alaska where they could use that path to a victory in November, and if one of them does, Murkowski will have her proof that you can win that way.  And considering that the Republicans have a surprising amount of gadfly options here (both Sarah Palin & Laura Ingraham have insinuated they might run for the Republican nomination against the senator), Murkowski would have little trouble rallying skeptical Independents, Democrats, and moderate Republicans in such a situation (though she'd likely struggle against either woman in a Republican primary).

There's a lot unknown here.  Murkowski is smart, and unlike Gross or Galvin, would have at least two years of actual Senate tenure to offer Chuck Schumer, and she wouldn't do that for free.  While Murkowski would surely move to the left on issues that she hedges on a bit but clearly supports (abortion rights, gay rights, student loan reform), she'd likely get a free pass to vote as she wished on energy reform & gun control.  She'd want to maintain her chairmanship of the Senate Energy Committee, surely, but Schumer would be risking a lot by telling Joe Manchin (who can guarantee four years of Senate tenure) that he wouldn't get to Chair the committee, and thus would have to offer a fresher plum to Manchin or risk him bolting parties (or honestly just resigning out-of-the-blue...Joe Manchin clearly hates DC & I'm stunned he's still in office at this point).  Schumer, though, would likely be able to figure out something to appease both if this was an opportunity, and if Gross or Galvin win in November, I think it is.  It's always a fool's errand to bet on a party switch, but Murkowski clearly has a decision to make, and if Alaska proves with Gross/Galvin it can back someone who caucuses with the Democrats, that might be the easiest path for Murkowski to stay in the Senate.