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| Lauren Boebert (R-CO) |
The biggest upset on Tuesday was that Rep. Scott Tipton became the fifth incumbent congressman this cycle to lose (assuming that Eliot Engel does lose but Carolyn Maloney wins, as is currently what it's looking like in New York). Tipton was obviously caught by surprise-he wasn't even in his district when the results were called (he was in DC, voting on some bills, which is normally a good excuse but not when you're about to lose reelection). His opponent is Lauren Boebert, a local restauranteur, who challenged Tipton from the far-right.
Boebert is yet another person who has defended the QAnon conspiracy to run for office as a Republican this year (which I discussed more here) and is the first Republican who has espoused such beliefs to win the nomination in a district that the Republicans currently hold. As a result, as I had predicted, she got quick endorsements from President Trump and NRCC Chair Tom Emmer. However, while this is a conservative district, it isn't totally out-of-reach. It has a Cook PVI of R+6, which Democrats like Abigail Spanberger, Lucy McBath, and Kendra Horn all won in 2018, and the Democrats got a quality nominee in former State Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush. Democrats were quick to coalesce behind Mitsch Bush (she got an election night endorsement from Cheri Bustos, DCCC Chair), and appeared ready to go after Boebert hard on her QAnon beliefs. This is a seat the Republicans should hold, but like VA-5, they may have shot themselves in the foot here-it's possible that hard-right primaries cost the Republicans two seats when they don't have any to spare, particularly if Joe Biden over-performs in Colorado & Virginia.
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| Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) |
The big event in Colorado was supposed to be (before Scott Tipton's surprise defeat) the Senate primary between former Gov. John Hickenlooper and former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (both Democrats). Hickenlooper had been on a few people's radars despite leading most of the race after left-leaning challenges in New York caused several incumbents to have close races, but this wasn't the case in Colorado-Hickenlooper won in a blowout, giving Romanoff his third high-profile loss in the past ten years (after this loss, his CO-6 loss in 2014, and his Senate primary loss in 2010, it's become clear that he is never going to hold federal office in Colorado). Hickenlooper's win sets up one of the best opportunities for Democrats in November to pickup a Senate seat, and polls show he's the candidate-to-beat, frequently outmanning incumbent-Senator Cory Gardner by double digits. Democrats need to net three Senate seats (and the White House) to win back a majority in the Senate come November-Hickenlooper's home state popularity gets them a step closer after Tuesday.
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| Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT) |
The one major race I haven't seen called yet from Tuesday is in Utah, as the Republicans hosted a competitive contest to replace Gov. Gary Herbert. As of today, the contest is down to two candidates, but Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox is leading the race against former Gov. Jon Huntsman. Huntsman has had an unusual career: the son of Nixon Staff Secretary Jon Huntsman, he has served as Governor of Utah, as well as he was appointed to four of the last five presidential administrations (all but Clinton). Despite this, Hunstman didn't get an endorsement from President Trump, and both he and Cox have been publicly critical of the president during his political career. Should Huntsman lose (due to Covid, Utah has seen a very high number of absentee ballots that they're still counting so we may not know the results here for a week), he could be one of the few Republicans who served in the Trump administration that a President Biden might consider for a role in his administration.
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| Burgess Owens (R-UT) |
The two big races of 2020 in terms of November (which expanded into three when Boebert won) were in OK-5 and UT-4, both seats that Donald Trump won in 2016 that the Democrats picked up in 2018. Of the two only one got their opponent on Tuesday. Rep. Ben McAdams will face former New York Jets safety Burgess Owens in the general election. This is probably the best that McAdams could have hoped for, as Owens has a history of making bombastic statements on Fox News (someone like Jay McFarland probably would've been better for the GOP), and McAdams seems to have become one of the House's most prodigious fundraisers. That said, this is still a seat Donald Trump is probably going to win in November, so it should stay on everyone's radar.
In Oklahoma, State Sen. Stephanie Bice and longtime political candidate Terry Neese advanced to a runoff. Bice was seen as the heavy favorite for the nomination, and the best option to take on incumbent-Rep. Kendra Horn (D), who pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the 2018 cycle, but she will now have to spend two more months campaigning against Neese in what promises to be an ugly campaign. Horn is possibly the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat up in 2020, and is surely hoping to face Neese, but regardless this is a win for her-Bice will now have to waste precious cash reserves against Neese and will have a shorter window to rally Neese's supporters behind her candidacy with the runoff, while Horn can spend the next two months continuing to stockpile money.
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| Rep. Kendra Horn (D-OK) |
Horn also will be able to talk about Medicaid expansion in Oklahoma, which managed to pass despite the national Republican Party's opposition to the measure (with Oklahoma being a ruby red state). This has continued to be a challenge for the Democrats-they are oftentimes unable to convince voters to back their candidates, but can still get them to back their ideas. We saw this in 2018, when a Right-to-Work initiative failed that Claire McCaskill also opposed while McCaskill herself wasn't able to win (her opponent, Josh Hawley, supported the bill). Horn has to hope that this doesn't happen again in 2020-the ballot initiative passed by 25-points in her congressional district, so it is certainly popular there. Expect Horn, if she wins, to do so on these types of bread-and-butter issues rather than attacks against President Trump.
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