Ranting On...the Myth of Amy McGrath

Amy McGrath (D-KY)

On Tuesday, voters in Kentucky, Virginia, and New York are headed to the polls, and we'll have more on the results of those races next Wednesday on the blog.  However, I want to discuss some of the movement we're seeing in one of the races today on the blog, as it's a fascinating microcosm of a race, and sort of a weird case study into how nationalizing races can have unintended consequence.

The Democratic Primary in Kentucky has been set for months.  Amy McGrath announced in July of 2019 that she was running for the Democrats, and this felt like a decent solution in taking on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.  McGrath lost in 2018, but she didn't lose by much and has a respectable resume, is a good fundraiser, and honestly, after multiple different Democrats turned down the opportunity, this was at least a non-embarrassing option for the Democrats.

But McGrath has run a pathetic campaign.  Yes she's raised gargantuan piles of money, but otherwise her campaign has been a joke.  She royally botched the initial question of whether she would have voted for Brett Kavanaugh or not (she initially said yes, then changed her answer to no, pleasing no one in the process).  She was nearly sued by Kentuckians for using their image without permission in an ad.  And she has not been able to figure out a a way to run on the same ballot as Donald Trump, not finding a strong balance between criticizing McConnell and not criticizing Trump.  The money has masked the fact that she's running one of the worst Senate campaigns in the country.

And now, she's going to be lucky to win her primary.  Despite having raised $41 million, out-raising McConnell by $9 million, she's in an increasingly tight contest with State Rep. Charles Booker, even though McGrath has 8x as much money.  Booker, a young African-American legislator, is running to McGrath's left, and has done better than either McGrath or McConnell in terms of fundraising from actually citizens in Kentucky.  He's stacked up endorsements from liberal leaders like Bernie Sanders & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as well as a more mainstream one from Alison Lundergan Grimes, a former Kentucky Secretary of State who was McConnell's last general election opponent.  Polls show the race closing, as local Democrats seem less enthused about McGrath as a candidate, and are excited for the prospect of Booker.

State Rep. Charles Booker (D-KY)

I'm pretty pragmatic, and so this would upset me in normal circumstances.  McGrath is the candidate that has raised the most money, is more moderate in a red state, and stands (on-paper) the best chance of winning.  But here's where I'm going to depart for a second-I am kind of hoping that Booker wins this, because McGrath has been running not just a shoddy campaign, but also one that has been dishonest about its chances.

One of the things that is fascinating about nationalizing fundraising is that it doesn't often mean smarter fundraising.  Democrats throw hundreds of thousands of dollars at the opponents of national figures like Jim Jordan & Kevin McCarthy, while Republicans are giving pointless amounts of cash to beat AOC or Nancy Pelosi.  This is all money that could actually make a difference in competitive, if less marquee, congressional campaigns.  And nowhere is this more evident than in Kentucky.

McGrath can't entirely be faulted for taking this money, but this is bordering on Jill Green campaigning to audit the election results in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (playing on people's emotions) rather than feeling practical.  McGrath knows she can't win, and any Democrat who trots out "we might be able to pull it off" is either an fool or charlatan.  McConnell can lose, but by making him stop being majority leader, or perhaps even have him lose so badly that the GOP throws him out of his leadership post, but ruby-red Kentucky is never, ever going to throw out McConnell while Trump is on the ballot.  Ain't gonna happen.  He's as safe as AOC or Jim Jordan.  I'm forgiving of a lot of wishful thinking donations (I wouldn't bat an eye over a Democrat donating to Al Gross or MJ Hegar or Barbara Bollier even though those seats are longshots), but this is basically burning your money.

So McGrath raising this money and not either giving it to more winnable candidates, or at least trying to build up some infrastructure for Kentucky Democrats makes me feel like this is a long con, and one that it'd be better to stop before it gets out-of-hand.  She's even worse than Jaime Harrison (another candidate who is never going to win), as Harrison doing better-than-expected might at least carry Joe Cunningham across-the-finish-line.  But McGrath didn't recruit an up-and-comer in Kentucky's 6th district, the only conceivably winnable pickup in the commonwealth, and so I would prefer us to stop wasting resources on this race.

Booker might just be another option for Democrats frustrated at McConnell.  People might throw their money at him the way they did McGrath.  But hopefully her losing will put some sort of sense into people's minds that all the money in the world can't get you a win if the dynamics of your race don't change.  And from there, prospective donors will instead shift to seats like Iowa or Georgia or North Carolina or Maine...seats that might actually defeat Mitch McConnell.