The Political Savvy of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)

No surprise from 2018's primary season was bigger than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beating Joe Crowley, a bartender who beat the man-who-could-be-Speaker.  Since she won office, Ocasio-Cortez has been a fascinating conundrum for followers of politics, as I am wont to be.  Unlike other members of her "Squad," like Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, her headlines are rarely (if ever) for personal comments or for moments due to her "notoriety."  Instead, Ocasio-Cortez is a deeply savvy politician, someone who might have "seemingly" gotten to where she was by luck, but is not a fluke politician.  Yes, she's very progressive (she's pushing hard, and I might add, successfully, for Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic nominee), but she's also pragmatic.  When she introduced her Green New Deal, for example, instead of having someone like Sanders be her Senate cosponsor, she picked Ed Markey, a DC-fixture for decades who is the complete antithesis of Ocasio-Cortez's career, having waited nearly forty years before finally getting promoted into the Senate.

So it should surprise no one who is actually paying attention that when Ocasio-Cortez was going to announce the people she's endorsing for Congress this year as part of her "Courage to Change" program, that the women she selected are, well, smart choices.  The organization, announced this past week, is focused on electing progressive women to the next Congress, and its endorsements fulfill such a mission statement.  Ocasio-Cortez selected seven women that by pretty much any definition of the term would be considered liberal, likely votes for things like DACA, the Equality Act, Medicare-4-All, and other major pieces of legislation that a Sanders' administration would push.  But she also did so in a way that is incredibly savvy, building on her clout (and support for future bids) in Washington while not ticking off the powers-that-be that, like Markey, want to trade in on her cool factor and will give her access to their long-term credibility.

Let's investigate how she did this by looking at the seven women she endorsed.  Kara Eastman is one of them.  Eastman you've heard me talk (and complain) about here because she was one of the more successful Bernie Sanders' endorsed candidates in 2018, beating a DCCC-backed favorite in the primary (former Rep. Brad Ashford), but ultimately not winning the seat (which I maintain Ashford would have done).  However, in 2020, things are different and Ocasio-Cortez getting a quick endorsement for Eastman makes sense.  The DCCC struggled to get a strong nominee here (though it's worth noting that Ashford's wife Ann is one of the leading contenders), and Eastman, who actually got close (losing by just 2-points) is arguably the best prepared candidate in the bunch to run again.  One could make a sincere argument that NE-2 is one of the truest tossups (Nebraska splits its electoral votes by congressional district) in the 2020 presidential election, and considering that in encompasses most of the Omaha metropolitan area, Eastman, even with her liberal background, is going to be coming in strong here in the same way pretty much every Democrat would.  Ocasio-Cortez is thus endorsing someone who has A) a decent chance of winning, even if they are more progressive than the district and B) she's not going against the powers-that-be so much as rushing to fill a hole that the DCCC has failed to fill.

Kara Eastman (D-NE)

This is true with her other endorsements as well.  Georgette Gomez (CA), Teresa Fernandez (NM), and Samelys Lopez (NY) are some of several candidates running for safely blue seats where she's endorsing a qualified candidate, trying to give them a slight leg-up in a similar fashion to Emily's List or other major PAC's, but ultimately not putting anything at risk for the seat.  Unlike Eastman's race, these seats are solid blue and whomever gets through is going to win the general.  But in giving them an advantage in a crowded field (something that the Nancy Pelosi or DCCC generally avoid doing for safely-blue seats), she's gaining political allies with long-term potential if they win.  It's smart politics.

Even the bolder endorsements have a safety net surrounding them.  In my opinion the oddest endorsement is Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez, who is running for the Senate from Texas.  The Texas Democratic Senate primary seems certain to head to a runoff, but most people assume that MJ Hegar, who is the only candidate raising serious money, is destined to be the nominee (though it's worth noting that Emily's List has still not gotten into what seems like a no-brainer race for them).  I'm not sure what Ocasio-Cortez is getting at here.  It's probably that she doesn't have a lot of options.  It's not entirely clear if her PAC will endorse men, which might preclude her getting into some of the primaries in New Mexico, Massachusetts, & Colorado, and it's possible that the two women in the Georgia Senate race don't want her endorsement.  Betsy Sweet in Maine probably would have taken it, and seems the most logical option, but Sweet is also a long-shot against an Emily's List-endorsed candidate (Sara Gideon), and Gideon is considered an even-odds favorite to win the Senate race by many (I rate this contest a Tossup).  It's therefore a race where Ocasio-Cortez could not only lose hard, but also have a future senator who will remember that she went against her.  Hegar is a long-odds candidate in Texas, unlikely to win this seat unless the best of scenarios takes place-going against her carries less risk, and honestly if Tzintzum Ramirez gets through to even the runoff, you could argue that's a win for Ocasio-Cortez in flexing her strength.

Ocasio-Cortez is endorsing two challengers to incumbents-Marie Newman & Jessica Cisneros (both of whom we talked about quite a bit here if you want more background).  However, these are challengers against conservative Democrats, and she's not the only big name backing these candidates.  Elizabeth Warren & Bernie Sanders have both endorsed these women, as have people like HUD Secretary Julian Castro & Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, so there's a good deal of cover in endorsing these candidates.  Plus, they aren't primarying a Collin Peterson or Tom O'Halleran, where a liberal candidate would mean a lost seat-both of these women could hold these seats if they win the contest.  As a result, Ocasio-Cortez is waging primaries against incumbents who are not well-liked by the party rank-and-file, rather than targeting an older, liberal incumbent, like, say, a Joe Crowley.  Ocasio-Cortez is not trying to repeat the success of how she got there, going after figures that might marginalize her power in DC, but instead is using her following & celebrity to win the game, rather than change it.