Electoral College Streaks

We are now less than 300 days away from the presidential election, and as a result you're going to continue hearing a lot more about the electoral college in the upcoming months.  We've discussed this a lot on this blog, with the big focus in recent months being on who is most likely to be the "most important state" (expect a follow-up on that article at some point in the near future, since there has been some rearranging on the list), but as we (read: me) also love political trivia on this blog, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the electoral college's elasticity in recent years.

We all know the concept of a swing state, places like Florida and Wisconsin that consistently decide our elections, but swing states are not a constant-they change over time (unless you're Pennsylvania, then you just always get to decide who wins, apparently).  I thought it might be interesting to take a look at current electoral-college streaks-which states are the most devoted to their parties, and which states might be more likely to go in a different direction in the near or far future.  Below we'll find every state that is looking at a 20+ year gap since they last voted for the other party.

Honorable Mention: This is focused on states, but it's worth noting the only place that has a "perfect" record of supporting only one party is the District of Columbia, and considering its strong left-leaning history, that may continue forever.

Worth Noting: All things considered, the electoral college has stayed relatively stagnant since 2000.  Only thirteen states have voted for two different parties statewide since the beginning of the millennium: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, & Wisconsin.  Not all of these states are considered "swing" states now (Indiana and New Mexico will not be on the table for the opposing party in 2020), but it does show a surprising inelasticity to the electoral college.

1996

Last Time States Voted Republican: None
Last Time States Voted Democrat: Arizona, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, West Virginia
Thoughts on These States: Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to be able to win even a chunk of the South, using his all-Southern ticket (he's from Arkansas, Gore's from Tennessee) to win the White House.  Gore's inability to translate at least a couple of these states (principally his home state of Tennessee and once-perennial swing state Missouri) was costly-if he'd won either of these states in 2000, we likely wouldn't have known anything about hanging chads and Katherine Harris, as he wouldn't have needed Florida to become president.  With the obvious exception of Arizona, none of these states look remotely competitive in 2020.

1992

Last Time States Voted Republican: None
Last Time States Voted Democrat: Georgia, Montana
Thoughts on These States: Clinton's two landslide victories are the last chances Democrats are going to have for a while to end some long streaks here.  Georgia is honestly surprising that he didn't win in it in 1996 (since we certainly think of that as a more achievable victory for the Democrats today than a state like Kentucky or West Virginia), but he got within two points of winning there in 1996.  Montana is a weird state in that it used to be much more progressive on the federal level (regularly sending Democrats to the Senate), but has been pretty red in years since despite the occasional close call (1996, 2008).

1988

Last Time States Voted Republican: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, Vermont
Last Time States Voted Democrat: None
Thoughts on These States: We're going to wipe out pretty much every state from a Democratic-winning streak in the next two elections, and this is one of the main reasons why Democrats get leery about nominating a Massachusetts Democrat to the White House-it tends to go horribly wrong.  Dukakis actually came relatively close in a few of these states (he lost Illinois, Vermont, Maryland, and California by less than 4-points), but this was a bloodbath for the Democrats.  After nominating liberals in two straight shut-outs, there was a reason the more moderate Bill Clinton was appealing in 1992.

1984

Last Time States Voted Republican: Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington
Last Time States Voted Democrat: None
Thoughts on These States: Mondale is one of only two politicians in the modern era to lose all-but-one state, and honestly it wasn't even that close in the states that he did win.  Massachusetts and Rhode Island are the only ones of these states he lost by less than 5-points, and the one state he did win he won by less-than-a-point.  Hawaii, now unthinkable as a red state, went to Reagan by 12-points.  While Oregon has occasionally been close since then, it's unlikely any of these are defecting any time soon.

1976

Last Time States Voted Republican: None
Last Time States Voted Democrat: Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas
Thoughts on These States: 1980 was another Democratic bloodbath, so we didn't see any switches there since we've only got one state left to track.  1976 proved the last moment the Democrats were able to rely upon the once solid-blue South to win an election, as Southerner Jimmy Carter was able to buck the sudden red wave that would sweep the region.  Texas is seen by some as going eventually blue, but these have been steadfast Republican states for over 40 years, so it'll be interesting to see what eventually makes them break the tide.

1972

Last Time States Voted Republican: Minnesota
Last Time States Voted Democrat: None
Thoughts on These States: Minnesota stands unique amongst all other states as the only state to never vote for a Reagan or a Bush.  It was, if you look at the margins in 1972, the closest state to flipping to the other side, though it wasn't that close (McGovern, looking at it, may have lost by a more damning electoral college landslide than even Mondale).  Minnesota occasionally flirts with going red (1984, 2004, & 2016 all came close), but has never gone GOP since, and if Trump's approval ratings stay where they are, it'll be a struggle to flip it in 2020, thanks in large part to the Twin Cities outweighing the increasingly dark red rural regions.

1964

Last Time States Voted Republican: None
Last Time States Voted Democrat: Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming
Thoughts on These States: These are the immobile nine, the Republican states that have not wavered since Barry Goldwater made it impossible for them to go red.  It's actually stunning to watch how consistently red these states are as only four of these states have been within 5-points since 1964.  Both North Dakota and Oklahoma were within 5-points during Carter's 1976 election (looking at that election, while it easily could have gone to Ford, it just as easily could have been a blowout for Carter).  Alaska was within reach for Hubert Humphrey in 1968, but only because George Wallace did so well as a third-party candidate that year.  The only state to flirt multiple times with switching is now-ruby red South Dakota, as it was within 5-points in 1976, 1992, and 1996.  Of the bunch, Kansas is probably most likely to be blue in an "Indiana in 2008" way, but otherwise it'll take a landslide like which we don't see anymore to turn any of these other states blue again.