At this point it seems like the first few states could go a number of ways, and while I do wonder if the British elections will have any affect (probably not, but it depends if Trump puts them front-and-center in the national conversation) or the rather mundane aspects of the impeachment hearing will change the race (I think Speaker Pelosi made a mistake only having two counts of impeachment rather than having a more sweeping indictment of the Trump administration by going after his tax returns, using at least one count from the Robert Mueller investigation, and the hush payments to Stormy Daniels & Karen McDougal before finalizing the impeachment inquiries), this is where I think we stand right now not only with the polls, but the trends of the polls. As a reminder, the #1 spot here is not my preferred candidate nor the person I think has the best chance of beating Trump (though on the latter count, I think that's become pretty apparent at this point that those two distinctions coincide), but whom I think is most likely to be the Democratic nominee.
Honorable Mention: While they occasionally make noise in the polls, I'm not ready to assume that Tom Steyer, Andrew Yang, or Michael Bloomberg should be taken seriously as anything other than distractions in the race. All three have the money at this point to stay in for a while, but we're getting close enough to Iowa that unless you're someone to take seriously (like the five candidates below), you're going to quickly lose oxygen in the race.
 |
| Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) |
How She Could Win: Based on what you're seeing in the polls, there seems to be three camps of voters-"people who like Bernie," "people who like Biden," and "people who don't want either but will pick Biden if forced." This was apparent after Elizabeth Warren started losing ground to Pete Buttigieg, even though the two have little similarity in terms of their voter profile. It's clear that this group is hungry for a third option, but that person needs to be a safe general election bet (i.e. can win MI/PA/WI), someone who isn't a septuagenerian, and someone who has government experience. That list is basically down to Klobuchar at this point if you don't go with a frontrunner. Her best bet would be able to peak as the "candidate of the moment" right before Iowa (entirely possible-Klobuchar polls well enough that she might be able to make it to a five-person debate), score a surprise over-performance (perhaps beating Biden and/or Sanders), and then use the media momentum to become a real candidate. In some ways, this is how Donald Trump ultimately became the nominee.
Why She Won't: Klobuchar isn't Trump in a variety of ways, but mostly in that she's never lead the national polling. If Harris, O'Rourke, Gillibrand, and inevitably Cory Booker can't make this stick, is it possible no one is going to please this voting group?
Previous Rank: N/A
 |
| Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) |
How He Could Win: Buttigieg's national standing has started to slide, but he's still polling well in Iowa. If he can maintain that (hard to do, but not impossible), he'd catch a second win after Iowa, especially if Warren wins New Hampshire. That'd set up a situation where both Biden & Sanders are vulnerable, and Buttigieg could swoop up moderates, as well as some of the "slim pickings" supporters who go after the likes of Castro, Booker, & Klobuchar (small, but meaningful in a tight race) to come ahead on Super Tuesday. If he's winning out of Super Tuesday, he'd probably be the nominee.
How He Won't: Buttigieg's numbers appear to be eroding, and built on something of a house of sand. Occasionally that can work (Donald Trump probably won in 2016 because the electorate voted at the right time-it's easy to see two weeks earlier or two weeks later Clinton scoring the victory as was the ebb-and-tide of that race), but it usually doesn't. It's probable that if Buttigieg falters as a top tier candidate his supporters will go to one of the three candidates who can win-people in early states don't like going for a lost cause.
Previous Rank: 3
 |
| Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) |
How She Could Win: We're now in the more plausible scenarios. Warren's path-to-victory is simple-don't get blown out of the water in Iowa (all the better for her if Sanders wins there), take New Hampshire from Bernie, and then hope that Biden can't be viable very long. Warren can then win the Biden voters, who are essentially Hillary voters who aren't going to fall behind Bernie, and take the nomination as the easier pill to swallow of the two for moderates and black voters.
How She Won't: Warren's plan is probably predicated on Biden faltering in both Iowa and South Carolina, and that seems unlikely to happen, especially if Buttigieg collapses. Biden is leading in national polling, and while Warren is a good enough pol she could rebound, she's got a finer path to walk here then Sanders or Biden.
Previous Ranking: 2
 |
| Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) |
How He Could Win: Sanders is arguably in a better place than people expect considering how so many have written him off, mostly because it's conceivable he wins three of the early four states, something that would make him, if not the nominee, a massive frontrunner on par with Trump in 2016. He does this by taking Iowa (with Buttigieg faltering, Biden or Warren need to come in and ensure that Sanders doesn't get this by default), besting Warren in New Hampshire (believable-he won it handily in 2016), and then taking Nevada on the strength of his support with Latino voters (where Sanders does well). This leaves Buttigieg & Warren rudderless, and Biden with just the gimme win he got in South Carolina. Sanders can then take his media status as the frontrunner to the nomination.
How He Won't: For all of the talk about Sanders' "Bernie Bros," one has to imagine that the biggest issue for him is that an equal (or larger) number of the Democratic electorate would only go to Bernie as a last resort because of their feelings about his race against Hillary Clinton (wounds that never really healed). Even in the above scenario, it's plausible to assume Warren & Buttigieg supporters migrate to Biden. Plus, the above scenario assumes that Warren & Buttigieg both falter AND Biden doesn't get some of the spoils as a result, which is tough to believe.
Previous Ranking: 4
 |
| Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
How He Could Win: If the race were held today, Biden would probably win. Buttigieg is technically leading in the aggregate for NH/IA and Biden is in SC/NV. That's not going to hold though-Buttigieg might win Iowa, but Warren or Sanders will take NH. Assuming that Biden's support among African-Americans holds, he can take both those hits and still come out with two decisive victories before Super Tuesday, where he can start scoring major points thanks in part to name recognition and his prevailing status as the national frontrunner. Plus, throw a few more points Biden's direction (say, from an Indiana mayor faltering) and he could regain the lead in Iowa, and then Biden has three early states locked up the way I referenced Sanders did up-top. In that case, Warren is on-paper his chief opponent, but it's difficult to imagine Sanders not staying in until Super Tuesday, surely sealing her fate.
How He Won't: No modern candidate has been able to take the nomination without at least Iowa or New Hampshire. That's history (and history is frequently broken), but it does put some pressure on Biden. If African-Americans were to go for Sanders or Warren (assuming that the New Hampshire victor was their only option to best Buttigieg), it could hurt Biden tremendously. But right now, Biden is in a pretty damn good position, one that could well improve if Buttigieg falters.
Previous Ranking: 2
No comments:
Post a Comment