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| Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) |
Kamala Harris
Arguably the biggest story of the week is Kamala Harris announcing that she will not be running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. Harris’s campaign is one to study, as (if you recall way back in the day), she was once considered a frontrunner for the nomination), but now didn’t even make it to the Iowa caucuses. There’s a variety of factors at play here-I think people (unfairly) assumed she’d be the second coming of Barack Obama, which if you’d followed her career at all was not going to be the case (her bigger moments aren’t in speeches but in debates and in voter connections-her campaign ads were some of the more personal of the nominees this year). There’s also the reality that (as both the Castro and Warren campaigns have pointed out) Harris faced obstacles as a woman of color that, say, Tom Steyer never had to endure with his entry into the contest. Even Amy Klobuchar, another former prosecutor, has not faced the scrutiny on criminal justice issues that Harris did.
That said, for the political future I don’t think this is the last time you’ll hear Harris’s name this cycle. She’ll undoubtedly be a force during the impeachment trial, and it’s probable that she’ll show up on Buttigieg or Biden’s VP shortlist (she might well top Buttigieg’s list). Harris’s position as a woman of color in a Democratic Party with a limited number of high-ranking women of color could put her at an advantage for someone like Buttigieg who will need to make big moves to shore up his support amongst people of color considering that’s been his weak spot in the primaries. Plus, like Kirsten Gillibrand or (inevitably) Michael Bennet she has a secure Senate seat that will keep her in the national spotlight if she ever wants to run for president again.
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| Senator-Designate Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) |
Kelly Loeffler
Were it not for Harris, Kelly Loeffler would have been the biggest story of the week as it’s not every day that a new senator join Congress. Loeffler is a largely unknown quantity for the GOP-she’s never held political office, and her resume involves being CEO of Bakkt (a company focused on Bitcoin) & work as a GOP megadonor. Her nomination by Gov. Brian Kemp is a signal that the Republicans are aware that independent women are migrating away from their party (Stacey Abrams won them in Georgia in 2018), as Kemp clearly hopes that Loeffler’s gender will help the party to recover with moderate white women.
Loeffler has been opposed by pro-life groups, though. She sits on the board of Grady Memorial Hospital, which does provide abortions since it’s, well, a hospital (this seems like a pretty stupid objection in my opinion). Perhaps more objectionable is Loeffler’s past donations to Democrats (according to OpenSecrets, she’s made contributions to Debbie Stabenow, Tom Harkin, John Barrow, and David Scott in the past twelve years). These associations make her vulnerable to a primary challenge, and may in part be why Donald Trump preferred Rep. Doug Collins for the contest. Collins, an ardent Trump supporter and right-wing hardliner, has indicated he’d be willing to challenge any Kemp appointment from the right, and considering Trump’s devotion to him, the president may well be willing to go against an incumbent senator even if she has the approval of the NRSC. This all opens up the possibility that the Democrats could take on someone like Collins in a runoff (due to the special election aspect of the race, this will be a jungle primary where a failure of any candidate to hit 50% will result in a top-two runoff). So far, though, Democrats have not recruited a notable Democrat into the contest-one wonders if one of the candidates currently running for the other seat (Sarah Riggs Amico, Jon Ossoff, & Teresa Tomlinson) might jump into this contest with the vulnerability posed by an ugly Loeffler-Collins fight.
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| Garland Tucker (R-NC) |
Garland Tucker
Thom Tillis avoided what his future colleague might be enduring in 2020, at least for now. Tillis had been in arguably the most competitive primary campaign against an incumbent up until this week, when his hard-right challenger Garland Tucker dropped out of the contest. Tucker had not gotten much institutional support (pretty much everyone, including President Trump, got behind Tillis right away). This theoretically could be good news for Tillis, but it comes with a catch.
As we mentioned yesterday, North Carolina has seen some movement in their congressional races. With the redistricting map in place, Democrats are near-certain to gain two additional congressional seats next year, one of which will be in the 6th district, currently held by Rep. Mark Walker. Walker now has to face retirement, certain defeat in his district (Hillary won it by 22-points in 2016), a primary against someone from a neighboring district…or he could take on Tillis. Walker would have a higher profile than Tucker, and it’s not like Tillis isn’t vulnerable (he’s one of the least popular senators in the country). Tillis is most likely going to be the tipping point contest for control of the Senate, so any hit to him in a primary would be a big deal for who will have the majority in the next Congress.
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| Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R-KS) |
Mike Pompeo
Rumors abounded this week that Secretary of State Pompeo had been reaching out to GOP mega-donors Charles Koch & Sheldon Adelson to gage their interest in his running for the open Senate seat in Kansas. Pompeo has denied any interest in the contest, but the constant scuttle around his running has not dissipated, and it feels like he’s biding his time to see how the impeachment trial will turn out or to see if Trump will be able to secure a second term as president.
While Adelson & Koch were reportedly friendly to the idea, I can’t imagine a worst case scenario for Senate Republicans than Pompeo getting in. Pompeo would secure Trump’s support, and the establishment would have to follow along, but despite the red nature of Kansas, Trump isn’t particularly popular here (net positive, yes, but hardly what post Republican administrations would be), and Pompeo’s entrance is unlikely to deter Secretary of State Kris Kobach from running (even if he might get some of the other, less controversial candidates like Roger Marshall or Susan Wagle to exit). This would mean you’d have a recent statewide loser (Kobach) against a scandal-ridden Trump acolyte (Pompeo). State Sen. Barbara Bollier is poised as a moderate Democrat to take advantage of either of these if there is an actual opening where the Republicans could lose Kansas for the first time since 1932…Pompeo’s entry gives her a better chance.
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| Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) |
Beto O'Rourke
The last bit of news was a poll from Democratic Policy Institute about the Texas Senate race. The filing deadline is on Monday for the contest, and there are still persistent rumors that former Rep. Beto O’Rourke might enter the contest against Sen. John Cornyn at the last second. The poll shows that O’Rourke is the best candidate, though it’s hard to tell how much of that is a result of name recognition (Cornyn leads O’Rourke 46-42). The current leading contenders, 2018 House candidate MJ Heger and State Rep. Royce West were down to Cornyn 44-30 and 45-33, respectively, so O’Rourke would be a clear-the-field candidate.
Here’s the thing. I think Beto six months ago was a brilliant candidate for this seat. He was coming off of a boffo performance in 2018 against Ted Cruz, and could capitalize on that race in 2020, potentially getting to a lead by cobbling together a similar coalition with higher Latino turnout during a presidential election. However, his failed presidential race tarnished him, particularly his stances on gun control that wouldn’t play well in rural Texas (where he’d lose, but couldn’t lose by too much, against Cornyn). O’Rourke getting into the race would be a big deal, and I honestly don’t know what’s next for his career so I don’t think it’d hurt him that much because I don’t think he has that much of a political future past 2020. He’s not going to be the VP with Harris out of the race, Warren needing to find a way to shore up men-of-color, and Biden/Buttigieg/Sanders clearly going to pick a woman, and that sheen of being the handsome new thing that he got in 2018 will wear off eventually (especially with people like Colin Allred and Gina Ortiz Jones starting to populate the US House). But it’s hard to see him winning at this point. Democrats should still hope he’d run, if only because he might be able to get them the State House in Texas (and Hegar could pick up the 31st if she decided on a rematch rather than a futile Senate campaign), but it’s probably Beto screwed himself over by shooting for the presidency rather than a more traditional building block to the White House like a Senate seat.
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