So with that, and knowing the importance of having conversations over the next year, I thought it'd be fun to write something a little provocative and out-of-character for our fact-based political articles today. In my opinion, next year we will see four different scenarios, in different levels of likelihood, when it comes to the White House, Senate, and House. As much as it would be fun to figure out, there's not really a way that the Democrats, say, win the House & Senate but lose the White House, or where the Democrats only win the Senate. But pretty much every other combination is possible, and I have decided to write what the morning after articles might look like for these four scenarios. I'm going to speculatively write what I think a newspaper article would look like the day after each of these circumstances. Hopefully this is fun (and potentially scary/motivating to read after the overwhelming Tory wins this week), and will incentivize you to start conversations with your family (and next year, all undecided, unmotivated, or persuadable voters) over the holiday.
(Because I believe in hope, I will start with most scary and go into least-this is not how I initially structured this article, but I didn't like it ranked by order of likelihood as it read oddly, but if you want my current guesses I'd say the following is most-to-least-likely: 1. D-WH/R-S/D-H, 2. R-WH/R-S/D-H, 3. D-WH/D-S/D-H, and 4. R-WH/R-S/R-H)
(Also, this is obviously speculative fiction-no quotes below are real, obviously; it's just based on what could happen if these scenarios played out)
Last night, Americans watched as once again Donald Trump proclaimed victory, this time by a stronger electoral margin than he did two years ago despite the Democrats looking to have won the popular vote by just under a million votes. Trump proclaimed he would "Keep American Great Again" during his victory speech after what onlookers described as a curt phone call with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who propelled big wins in early primary contests in New Hampshire & Nevada into a successful run for the Democratic nomination, only to see him stall out with most early swing states around Labor Day after mixed performances in the presidential debates.
Sanders had hoped that choosing New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham as his running-mate might make the difference in the race for the White House, making a play for states with larger Latino populations, but this didn't occur. Of the states that Sanders had visited during his sweep through the American South last week, he only held Nevada, watching Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina all go to the Republicans. Trump's final electoral push through the Great Lakes region was wholly successful, taking Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all states he barely held against Hillary Clinton four years ago, as well as becoming the first Republican since Richard Nixon to win Minnesota. Trump appears to have won a 318-220 electoral college victory, though recounts appear probable in Maine where he leads by just under 2000 votes.
Trump's win last night was enough to sweep in Republican victories across Congress, where House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was able to take a number of conservative districts across Oklahoma, Utah, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, as well as marginal suburban districts that had gone for President Obama but couldn't hold together for Sen. Sanders, to get a slim majority in the House. It appears that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will announce later today that she will step down as leader of the party; insiders have stated that Pelosi wasn't expecting the loss, and wants to get ahead of the losing Democrats who are already stating she didn't do enough to help stave off red-seat Democrats from losing their seats.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will add a net gain of one seat to his majority in the US Senate, as he picked up seats in both Alabama and Michigan last night, losing only one seat in Colorado. Democrats appeared worried late last night when Sen. Tina Smith, appointed to fill the seat of Al Franken, might lose to former Rep. Jason Lewis after Trump pulled ahead in Minnesota, but Smith was able to recover with strength from the Twin Cities to beat Lewis after being overwhelmed in the rural regions of the state. Calls this morning from Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kyrsten Sinema for Chuck Schumer to stand down after a third consecutive loss do not seem to have deterred Schumer from going for another term as leader, though rumors of an intra-party challenge from Sen. Kamala Harris were not denied by the California Democrat. McConnell appeared gleeful this morning about the prospect of restructuring healthcare, as he now appears to have the votes to end the Affordable Care Act, and about the prospect of another Supreme Court vacancy, as rumors of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg being in ill health have echoed in DC for weeks.
After four years of a president that dominated public opinion and the news cycle, with nearly $4 billion spent on the contest, it appears that America hasn't changed much other than holding its own opinions from 2016. While votes are still being counted in Maricopa County, Arizona, it appears Republican President Donald Trump has defeated South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg to win a second term in the White House. Trump achieved this largely by sticking to the plan the RNC laid out in strategy documents that were inadvertently leaked to the press Labor Day weekend-having Trump spend almost the entire last month of his campaign in the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, all of which had shown a statistical dead heat going into election day. While Buttigieg appears to have won all but Wisconsin of these contests, that wasn't enough as Trump held every state he won four years ago, giving him a 270-268 victory over Buttigieg, assuming Trump's lead holds in Arizona (which local Democrats privately admit is a near certainty considering where the outstanding votes lie).
Buttigieg attempted in the fall to expand the map, but to no avail. The youngest presidential nominee for a major party since William Jennings Bryan in 1896, Buttigieg won early primary states in New Hampshire & Iowa, using that momentum to a decisive victory on Super Tuesday, but was never able to win over African-American voters, who led Joe Biden to a solid second place victory in the primaries before he dropped out of the race in May. Buttigieg continually made overtures to the African-American community, selecting Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams to be the first black woman on a major party's presidential ticket, but exit polls showing lower turnout among black communities attributed in part to Buttigieg's stances on criminal justice as South Bend mayor. As a result, Buttigieg saw larger margins of defeat in North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia than Hillary Clinton did two years ago, and wasn't able to make up for his losses in Wisconsin. This was despite the fact that he still won the popular vote by just over 2 million people, thanks to strong turnout in California & New York, as well as a closer-than-expected election in Texas.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi proclaimed that "Democrats will still be heard on Capitol Hill," though it wasn't clear if she would be holding the Speaker's gavel. While we can project that the Democrats will hold the House majority, recounts in close races in Michigan, New Jersey, and Virginia don't allow us to have exact numbers; most experts assume the House Democrats will hold a majority of 5-7 seats in the US House. Already this morning, we are hearing that there is pressure on Pelosi to step down as Speaker after the Democrats lost seats across the Midwest, though it's unclear who, if anyone, might ultimately step forward to challenge her, particularly considering all Democrats in California, her home state, won reelection.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will come to Washington with a slimmer majority than before, but will hold the Senate for the Republicans. Democratic Sen. Doug Jones lost to former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who has proclaimed himself a Trump loyalist despite a rocky tenure in the president's administration during his first term, but the left did pick up seats in Colorado, and most likely Arizona, as astronaut Mark Kelly (husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords) looks like he'll beat appointed-Sen. Martha McSally, a rare bright spot for the Democrats in Trump territory last night. Washington has been abreast of rumors that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas will retire shortly after the inauguration, although Thomas has publicly denied that he is leaving the court.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts made history last night to become the first female president of the United States, defeating Donald Trump after Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs announced this morning that Warren would be the eventual victor of the state's 11 electoral votes, making Warren the nation's 46th president. Warren's slim electoral college did not mirror her overwhelming popular vote success, where she's likely to hold a near 7 million vote advantage over the president. Trump refused to concede the election this morning, however, claiming that Warren had cheated and that Hobbs, a Democrat, had allowed "illegals" to vote. Trump has stated that he would pursue legal action if necessary to stop Warren from being certified the winner, though it wasn't entirely clear what recourse he would have as she looks to have secured 280 electoral votes after flipping Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district from Trump's column in 2016, enough to become the president.
Warren's campaign, started after she won a solid victory in New Hampshire over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sanders unexpectedly dropped out of the race to endorse her. Buoyed by a big win in California, she was able to overcome an underwhelming performance from former Vice President Joe Biden and a spirited underdog campaign from Mayor Pete Buttigieg to win the campaign. Democratic strategists worried that Trump's nicknaming Warren "Pocahontas" might overwhelm the campaign, with Democrats criticizing the media for focusing too much on Warren's ancestry over more serious issues, but Trump largely veered away from using the nickname after audio tape surfaced of Trump calling Warren derogatory slurs (that we cannot print in this newspaper) at a presidential fundraiser in early October. Warren was not able to win Florida, Wisconsin, or North Carolina despite repeated trips to the states, as her Medicare-4-All policy continued to show lukewarm approval in the states after Trump made it a centerpiece for his presidential campaign.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reportedly spoke with and congratulated the President-Elect this morning, and said that she looked forward to working with her, though both are at-odds over how to handle healthcare legislation, knowing it will be impossible to pass in the Senate. Pelosi saw only marginal losses in her caucus last night. Though the numbers will still be decided once recounts in Iowa and South Carolina are finished, Pelosi appears to have lost only a net of 1-3 seats, making up for Democratic losses in Minnesota, Oklahoma, and New York's more conservative districts with wins in suburban seats in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
Senate Leader Mitch McConnell held on to his majority last night, though he will not know for how long until a runoff election in Georgia is decided next month, a race which pits Rep. Doug Collins against Democratic State Sen. Jen Jordan (appointed incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler placed third in the open seat election, due to Collins' repeated attacks on her for not being loyal enough to Trump). Polling shows that Collins is poised to beat Jordan, though he does not poll as well against the Democrat as Loeffler did in head-to-head battles.
Republicans saw their ranks shrink last night with losses in Colorado, Arizona, and Maine, where longtime Sen. Susan Collins lost by a slim margin to former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon. Gideon hammered Collins for her votes to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, as well as her vote to acquit President Trump on both of his counts of impeachment. Democrats' only Senate loss last night was in Alabama, so if they do win in Georgia, they would have netted three seats, enough to give them the majority in the Senate with a tie-breaking vote cast by Vice President-Elect Julian Castro, but not until at least after an April special election, as Warren will have to resign her Senate seat to become president, and Republican Gov. Charlie Baker has publicly stated he will choose a member of his own party to succeed Warren. Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito is the early favorite for the seat, according to those close to Baker.
DC insiders speculate that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, who was spotted dining with Sen. McConnell and his wife a few weeks ago, may be exploring resigning in the coming weeks so that President Trump can quickly appoint his successor during the Senate recess. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who appears to have staved off a challenge to his position after an endorsement this morning from President-Elect Warren, has been meeting with constitutional lawyers to find ways to delay the confirmation until Warren takes office.
Former Vice President Joe Biden delivered a crushing defeat to President Donald Trump last night, winning the popular vote by nearly 10 million votes and taking what appears to be a 375-163 vote margin in the electoral college, though elections in Ohio and Georgia could lead to recounts.
Though Biden's victory appears sweeping, President Donald Trump still had not called to concede to the president-elect, and refused to give a concession speech last night, instead according to sources in the campaign he's been consulting close aides while staying at his Mar-a-Lago resort. However, it does appear that Vice President Mike Pence did call to congratulate his successor, California Sen. Kamala Harris, and the two are expected to meet at the vice president's residence later this week.
Biden's victory matched with public polling, despite many political pundits assuming that his strong early numbers would close as the election approached. After a primary campaign that saw him win most of the early states, he was able to solidify his standing with progressives through his choice of Harris as his running-mate, as well as giving defeated rivals Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders prime time positions at the DNC. Trump's chief attacks on Biden were regarding the vice president's age, but Biden was able to deflect some of these attacks throughout the fall with a variety of comedic appearances on talk shows. The former vice president memorably beat Tonight Show host Jimmy Fallon in a pushup contest in late September, and went through an "obstacle course" on The Ellen Degeneres Show.
Though we don't know the final numbers, Biden's victory, particularly his strong support across the Midwest, helped deliver his party victory in both houses of Congress. Nancy Pelosi, who stated that she has the votes needed for a fourth term as Speaker, gained seats despite her party's strong midterms two years ago, completing her party's transformation of America's suburbs into "blue territory" with pickup victories in Georgia, Missouri, New York, and Texas. Pelosi reportedly spoke with Biden this morning, and the two discussed a robust slate of legislation addressing maternity leave, immigration, climate change, and student loan reform during the first 100 days of the president's term in office.
New York Sen. Chuck Schumer will assume the position of Majority Leader for the first time since he took over the Democratic caucus in 2016. Schumer's wins were driven by Biden's strength across the Midwest and East Coast, picking up seats in Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Iowa, and North Carolina. At least one of the Georgia Senate contests appears headed to a runoff election, between Republican Rep. Doug Collins and Democratic State Sen. Jen Jordan (incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler placed a distant third), but it does appear that Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson may have reached 50% of the vote in the other contest, which would mean that she had secured the pickup and would mean another victory for Schumer. Sen. Harris is expected to step down from her seat in mid-December, though Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom will appoint a member of her party to hold the seat, so there will be no partisan change as a result of the resignation.
Democrats' biggest victory, however, came in the red state of Kansas. While President Trump beat Vice President Biden in the state, strength in the Kansas City suburbs was enough for State Sen. Barbara Bollier to become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1932, defeating controversial former Secretary of State Kris Kobach by a small margin. Democrats' only loss appears to be in Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones has lost to former Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Sessions and Jones appear headed on another collision course in the comings weeks, though, as Jones is considered the favorite to be Biden's Attorney General, where Sessions will have to vote on his confirmation.
Mitch McConnell will run for another term as leader, though his fellow Kentucky senator Rand Paul stated in an interview this morning that the Republicans should "explore new leadership" after their defeats Tuesday. With the Democrats now in control of the White House and the Senate, it appears probable that the Supreme Court could see some changes in the coming months. Indeed, 82-year-old Associate Justice Stephen Breyer insinuated in an interview with Harvard (his alma mater) that his "legacy on the Court was not done, but was starting to close."
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