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| Can Nancy Pelosi get a fourth term as Speaker? |
So this is a reminder that this list is a snapshot, but a snapshot I wanted to have handy as we go into the new year. Our last look at the House took us in a slightly different direction than usual, examining the most vulnerable Republicans and Democrats up next year. This time, we'll return to our traditional format which we'll retain for the rest of the election cycle, with the #1 seat on this being the one most likely to flip next year to a different party. As a reminder, the House Republicans (provided they don't lose one of their upcoming special elections) need to pickup 19 seats next year to win the House majority, and that is assuming that they don't start out behind due to the North Carolina redistricting case (since these maps are not approved yet, they aren't included below but it's probable that the Democrats will net at least 2 seats when the Tarheel State is said-and-done). Nineteen is a lot of seats, and it's a good reminder that even though most of the below are Democratic-held, Nancy Pelosi likely has a solid grip on the Speaker's gavel as long as Donald Trump is president.
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| State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D-PA) |
One of four seats on this list currently held by a Republican, Pennsylvania's 10th is an interesting spot for the Democrats. This is a seat that Donald Trump won handily in 2016 (by 9-points), and actually went for Mitt Romney in 2012 (by a slimmer 6-points). However, in 2018 Democrats nearly won this seat with a largely unheralded challenger against incumbent-Rep. Scott Perry, with Perry winning by less than 3-points. Additionally, Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey both carried this district in 2020, with Wolf taking it by double-digits. The Democrats seem to smell the potential to flip another seat in the Keystone State, and have recruited arguably the best challenger of the cycle, State Auditor Eugene DePasquale. DePasquale has so far lived up to the hype against Perry, out-raising him in the third quarter, but it remains a question mark if Perry will be vulnerable with Donald Trump at the top of the ballot. Pennsylvania has shown the most "buyer's remorse" of any state since the 2016 elections, but that doesn't mean that this district will swing blue like it did for Wolf & Casey in 2018. Perry isn't a great campaigner, but in an era with limited coattails, Donald Trump might be his greatest ally on the ballot.
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| State Sen. Eric Brakey (R-ME) |
Maine's second went from being a longtime blue district to a Trump one in 2016, with Trump becoming the first Republican since George HW Bush to win one of Maine's electoral votes. This puts Rep. Jared Golden (D), one of the most conservative members of Nancy Pelosi's caucus, in a tough bind as he runs in 2020. While the district isn't a goner for Democrats (particularly with IRV, which is how Golden won in the first place), it's very white and much more rural than the rest of New England. Republicans could be shooting themselves in the foot in ME-2, though, if they go with former State Sen. Eric Brakey, who has gotten national headlines for running a fundraiser where he gave away an AR-15 as a prize. To that point, former Gov. Paul LePage endorsed one of Brakey's opponents, former State Rep. Dale Crafts, but Brakey has a decided fundraising advantage. Keep in mind that while Trump won here, so did Barack Obama, and it's a place that will go for a conservative Democrat if need be (Mike Michaud held this seat for years), so the Republicans can't get too creative with their nominee and expect to win again, especially with IRV.
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| State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) |
While all four of Iowa's congressional districts are, to some degree, competitive, it is the 1st that seems like the most likely flip of the cycle if there's going to be one. This is because the district, while historically kind to Democrats (Obama won it by 17-points in 2008), looks demographically like it'll be very friendly for Donald Trump. The district is over 90% white, and 34% rural, which is about as close as you can get to Trump's base, and unlike Cindy Axne in the 3rd congressional district, it doesn't have a major metropolitan base like Des Moines to help incumbent Democrat Abby Finkenauer out. Finkenauer is a rising talent in the Democratic Party, and a powerhouse fundraiser (she's been wisely using her position in the party to scoop up money from Democratic presidential candidates ahead of the Iowa caucuses), but the question here will be whether or not Trump will outrun her, and outrun her by how much. Republicans have an A+ recruit in State Rep. Ashley Hinson, who was also a local TV anchor, and this will be one of the more impressive contests on the ballot next year. Should Finkenauer win, she'll be toward the top of most Democrats' lists to run for governor or senator (if Chuck Grassley retires next year), but she'll need to win first.
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| State Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) |
The 11th district encompasses Staten Island (and a smattering of Brooklyn), and has historically been the only red patch in New York City's five boroughs. The district is less diverse than the rest of New York, and after going for Obama twice, went for Donald Trump by ten points. The Democrats have a decent candidate in incumbent Rep. Max Rose, an Afghanistan veteran who surprised a lot of people by beating Rep. Dan Donovan last year (most assumed that this seat would only be vulnerable if Donovan would lose the primary to former Rep. Michael Grimm, who recently got out of jail for tax evasion). While this district is prone to bizarre Republican primary results (Grimm could well run again and win, as could racist YouTube personality Joey Saladino), it's probable that Rose will face off against State Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, the only Republican woman representing New York City in Albany. Malliotakis is well-known in the district for her run for mayor in 2017 (she lost to Bill de Blasio), and is more moderate than you'd expect for someone that could be facing a challenge from the right (she's in the middle on social issues such as abortion and gay rights), but this election will come down to Trump. If Trump can't win this seat, he's unlikely to take Rose down with him (this district has split ballots in the past, but is unlikely to do so with an incumbent Democrat in office), and polls show his approval at only 47% in Staten Island (lukewarm considering that Rose will gain ground in the Brooklyn portion of the seat), but if Trump is able to take the seat by 10-points like he did in 2016, Malliotakis is certain to beat Rose. This makes NY-11 Exhibit A for Democrats arguing they need a moderate like Joe Biden leading the ticket in 2020 to maintain their down-ballot advantage.
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| Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) |
Pennsylvania's 1st is an odd district, and one that the Democrats screwed up in 2018. One of just three remaining districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 that the Democrats didn't pick up in 2018, it's certainly a seat that should be on the Democrats' minds for 2020, but recruitment issues appear to be holding Democrats back from pursuing this could-be-competitive seat. Both the DCCC and Emily's List have pushed hard for a better candidate than the current crew, none of which stands out as a solid fundraiser against incumbent-Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), but so far people like former Rep. Patrick Murphy and Bucks County Commissioner Diane Ellis-Marseglia have declined the race. It's possible that if the Democrats win this district by enough, they won't need a top-tier challenger against Fitzpatrick, but considering the bellwether status of this district and its Bucks County, I feel like the national Democrats need to try harder or risk the Keystone State having an enthusiasm gap in a critical district.
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| Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) |
I don't really know how to handle Utah's 4th congressional district. In some ways, it feels like the sort of district that the Republicans should easily be able to win back. It went to Trump by 7-points in 2016, but that's misleading-Trump did horribly in the district, and it's actually only 7 points mostly because a lot of conservative voters defected to Evan McMullin-for comparison's sake Mitt Romney won this by 38 points. It's possible the only reason that incumbent-Rep. Ben McAdams (D) won in 2018 was that former Rep. Mia Love was a black woman in a majority white district, a black woman who had historically struggled to gain a footing in the district despite the "R" behind her name. That being said, Trump is still unpopular in Utah, and while this is a very white district, it's also urban, wealthy, and highly-educated, all three trend lines that have gone further to the Democratic party in recent years. The Republicans have a number of major candidates that they can rely upon (and it doesn't appear Love will want a rematch, so they aren't going to lose due to racism), but the bigger question is just how badly has Trump hurt his standing with college-educated whites, and is it enough so that Ben McAdams can win a second term?
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| Rep. Kendra Horn (D-OK) |
A similar question is being asked by Rep. Kendra Horn (D) in Oklahoma's 5th congressional district. Horn pulled off one of the biggest upsets of 2018 when she won the race against incumbent-Rep. Steve Russell. Horn's victory was in part due to the unpopularity of local Republicans in Oklahoma after the teacher's strikes (not repeatable in 2020) and due to demographic shifts in the most diverse and most highly-educated district in the state, as well as one that is predominantly urban (it contains Oklahoma City)-these paths are repeatable for Horn, but she'll have a narrow margin-of-error to them at least through 2020, when redistricting might either gerrymander her out of the seat or allow her to stay in a safer seat (if the Oklahoma Republicans simply try to shore up the rest of the state-that'll depend on if Tulsa becomes more blue as it did in 2018). The GOP has a plethora of top-tier candidates vying to take on Horn, the first Democrat to represent Oklahoma in Congress since 2013, but the major question here is whether Oklahoma's demographics have shifted enough that Horn can outrun Trump (who will probably win this district), or whether she was a one-term wonder that took a victory in a series of extraordinary circumstances.
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| Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-SC) |
We'll conclude our trio of candidates who either are riding the beginning of a demographic wave or are about to become historical footnotes in the Palmetto State. Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) won this open seat in 2018 by defeating State Rep. Katie Arrington, after she ran to the right to defeat incumbent-Rep. Mark Sanford in the primary, a run that likely cost her when it came to the general. Cunningham faces a problem in an historically Republican district, but one that is also the most highly-educated and wealthiest district in the state, home to Charleston. This is a demographic group, as we've pointed out, that the Republicans have struggled to make up ground with during Trump's time in office, and could (again) be persuadable with the right kind of candidate at the top of the ticket. Cunningham, along with Horn & McAdams could be a mirage-the sort of candidate that could only win in a midterm and won't be able to stand up with a presidential turnout, but the demographics of these three districts make for intriguing study-if the Democrats can win here in 2020, will it show that the divide between urban/rural, college educated/non-college educated is growing?
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| Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA) |
Were it not for the retirement of Rep. Will Hurd, GA-7 would be perched as the best shot the Democrats have of flipping a seat next year. Rep. Rob Woodall (R) is retiring, and probably for good reason-he only won by 319 votes in 2018, and his district is swiftly moving away from the GOP. Trump won this by 7-points in 2016, but Stacey Abrams won the district by a point for governor last year, and Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux delivered the closest result of the cycle. With Woodall out, both sides are stockpiling candidates, with the Republicans looking at State Sen. Renee Unterman and Afghan War veteran Rich McCormick as their best chances, while the Democrats have two state legislators and several prominent local recent (unsuccessful) candidates for office biding for what might be a seat that's migrating swiftly to the left. One of those candidates is Bourdeaux, who probably benefits from name recognition & her near victory in 2018 in a fractured primary (though she'd have to win a majority in a runoff). The district is only 45% white, which could hurt Bourdeaux in a runoff where she's likely to face a person-of-color, but this district is plum for the Democrats, and Bourdeaux would start out as the favorite considering her performance last year if she can make it through to the general.
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| State Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM) |
GA-7/NM-2 are the spot on this list where I would wager the incumbent party might be the underdog. The Top 5 are still achievable for the incumbent party (well, #1 is getting out-of-range), but they're tough holds. Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) was one of the bigger surprise victories of 2018, winning in large part due to incredibly high turnout for a midterm, an open seat, and a blowout gubernatorial race; only the open seat aspect of that contest will get better for Torres Small, who will be the incumbent in 2020. Torres Small has struggled slightly to be able to gain a foothold with fundraising (she's one of the few Democrats running in competitive races in 2020 who has been out-raised by the Republican field), and while this is a seat with a high minority population, it still heartily backed Donald Trump in 2016, and probably will again in 2020. The district has a history of going to the Democrats under the right circumstances, but they generally aren't able to hold the seat for very long (look to one-term wonder Harry Teague who rode the Obama wave in 2008 only to be crushed two years later by Steve Pearce). Republicans appear to be going for a rematch with former State Rep. Yvette Herrell taking on Torres Small (a risky endeavor-it's always possible it was a case where the voters simply didn't like the other candidate rather than extenuating circumstances causing the loss), but Torres Small will need another perfect storm in 2020, and it'll be harder to reach that with Donald Trump mandating major turnout among Republicans.
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| Rep. Jeff van Drew (D-NJ) |
Rep. Jeff van Drew (D) is surely the least popular freshman Democrat in the House among progressives. He is one of only two Democrats in the House who didn't back the impeachment inquiry, hurting his chances at fundraising, but there's a reason for that-his seat is red, and probably getting redder. The district was won twice by President Obama, but it has a large population of non-college educated whites, Trump's base and a demographic group that Democrats have struggled to convert back to their side since he became president. Van Drew is undoubtedly helped by lackluster recruitment efforts (so far the Republicans have two recent congressional losers and a venture capitalist, a profession that would be easy for van Drew to demonize), but he's also running in a district that could be becoming out-of-reach for a Democrat even against weak opponents. Honestly, if Kevin McCarthy hasn't called van Drew to see if he'd be willing to switch parties, I don't know what he's doing as I'd wager that he's a prime candidate for such a flip, but until he does, van Drew seems to be in a Joe Manchin holding pattern-he's probably going to lose at some point, even if it isn't necessarily the next election on the ballot...
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| Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN) |
...which is a position that Collin Peterson knows by heart. Peterson has been in the US House since 1991, and is the most conservative member of the House Democratic caucus. He has won reelection repeatedly in the past thirty years, but with decreasing margins, despite lackluster opponents. His district went to Donald Trump by 30-points in 2016, making Peterson something of a wizard by hanging on, and while Democrats were dominating statewide in 2018, only Amy Klobuchar was able to win this district (people like Tim Walz & Tina Smith got bested here even as they were taking blowouts statewide). Peterson won by less than 5-points in 2018, and the Republicans have a solid recruit in former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach, the best opponent that Peterson has faced in years. Fischbach has a few deficits (she's from the southern tip of the district, so she doesn't threaten Peterson's bluest bases up north, and I would assume that her being female isn't going to help much in this rural district against a longtime, gruff conservative white man, but that might just be me projecting since I grew up here). However, she's a formidable opponent, and Peterson could well retire to avoid having to beat her (though he clearly likes being Ag Chair, a position that he'll get to keep as long as the Democrats maintain their majority, which feels probable in 2020). Peterson is so personally popular he, like Joe Manchin, could defy his district's natural inclinations for one more cycle and bow out after redistricting will make this seat unwinnable for him, but in an era of ticket-splitting, can the last man standing stay aloft?
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| Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-NY) |
While Ben McAdams is the Democrat that represents the district that has the most Republican tilt and Collin Peterson has the district Trump won by the most, of the first-term Democrats, no incumbent has a district Trump won a larger percentage of the vote in than Anthony Brindisi. In upstate New York, this is a district that Obama nearly won in both 2008 & 2012 (the Republicans took it by less than a point both times), but slammed hard right in 2016 with Trump winning by 15-points. Brindisi likely only won because of his opponent's (Rep. Claudia Tenney) oftentimes bombastic public statements (she took up Michele Bachmann's crown in the GOP caucus), and for a truly ugly campaign (which involved Tenney's campaign literally accusing Brindisi of employing mob-style tactics, despite no evidence to prove such a thing, and in the process getting accused of anti-Italian bigotry). Brindisi may luck out with his opponent a bit-Tenney is running again, and while Steve Cornwell (a local district attorney) out-raised her in Q3 & is the preferred candidate of the GOP, she does come in with a lot of name recognition that may be tough for anyone else to beat, especially considering there are two other lesser-known Republicans in the race to split Cornwell's anti-Tenney position. However, if Trump is posting numbers like he did in 2016, it'll be next-to-impossible for Brindisi to beat any Republican. He's not a goner (mostly because it's possible the district reverts at least a little bit to its 2012 stances, and Tenney is a terrible opponent), but I'd be surprised if Brindisi still sits in the House come 2021.
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| Peter Meijer (R-MI) |
2. Michigan-3
This seat is a weird one, because it is (as of now) the only contest on the map that could go to three different parties. This is because Rep. Justin Amash (I) switched from the GOP to Independent in July due to his party's attitude toward Donald Trump, and considering his incumbency (and the fact that he still seems likely to run for reelection), he has a decent chance of holding this seat, despite its solid Republican lean (it went for Trump by 10-points in 2016, and thous she won a 10-point victory statewide, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer still fell 0.4 points short of taking this district in 2018). The problem for the GOP will be if Amash splits the vote in a way that hurts them. If anti-Trump Republicans give Amash, whom they've elected for 5 terms, enough of the vote, pretty much anything could happen. Republicans are piling in in to take on Amash, though Peter Meijer (heir to a grocery store fortune), has emerged as the fundraising frontrunner and prohibitive favorite for the nomination. Unlike independents like Angus King & Bernie Sanders, Amash doesn't caucus with Nancy Pelosi, so there's no incentive for the Democrats to sit this race out, and so we're looking at a competitive primary for the Democrats as well, though attorney Hillary Scholten blew past her closest competition (former Obama aide Nick Colvin) in fundraising this past quarter, and is starting to earn the kinds of endorsements (local Democratic leaders, Emily's List) that usually indicate an edge in the primary. Scholten wouldn't be able to hold this seat for very long under the current lines, but it's worth remembering with Amash in the race, she doesn't need a majority-40% (a more achievable goal) could be enough to take the election. And as I mentioned above, Republicans need 19 more seats for the majority-if Scholten wins in a fluke here, even if she's a one-term wonder, that's another seat they have to find on the map to make up for this missed opportunity. This race could be off the list if Amash declines to pursue another term (or runs for president as an independent, as he's been rumored to be considering), but until then it's enough of a wild card to deserve a spot on this list.
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| Gina Ortiz Jones (D-TX) |
The top seat on this list is going to be situated at the top until either Collin Peterson retires or we get into the heat of next year and we find one of last year's freshmen Democrats simply cannot overcome the nature of their district. That's because this is about as perfectly-positioned of a pickup as you can get. In 2018, despite polls showing he was safe, Rep. Will Hurd (R) won by less than a 1000 votes, and as this is one of only three GOP-held seats that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, it already started in a precarious position before Hurd's retirement completely upended the GOP's chances. This isn't a guaranteed victory for the Democrats (Clinton only won the district by 3 points, let's remember), but it's one that the Republicans are going to have to search to find any hope. Democrats have a crowded primary, but there's little indication that 2018 nominee Gina Ortiz Jones won't be their standard-bearer considering how she close was to dispatching Hurd last time and her fundraising since then, and the GOP has struggled to find a candidate who could equal Hurd's ability to win crossover voters in this sprawling district. With the 2020 nominee (probably) headed to victory here against Trump, Ortiz Jones simply has to win over the same voters, and considering Beto O'Rourke also won this district last year (by 5-points), 2020 might prove whether this seat is simply too-blue for any Republican to retain.
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