The battle for Senate control is probably more interesting than what you'd think if you just look at the rankings below, because on the surface not a lot has changed. The races that are competitive remain that way, and it's probable that we aren't going to see much change even a year from now. Yes, there's potential for one of the below races to move up in theory, but unlike 2018 (where there was a lot of red territory that could theoretically break blue) or 2022 (where Republicans will have 5 incumbents up in states Barack Obama won twice), 2020 doesn't, in theory invite a plethora of opportunity for movement or party-switching. I suspect next October when we do our final rundown of the fight for the Senate, this Top 10 could be filled with the same contests.
But what is interesting is how much more competitive these races have become. It's becoming increasingly clear that the impeachment hearings are having an effect not just on President Trump, but on the Republican brand as a whole. Most of the most vulnerable Republicans (Slots 2-6 on this list) are filled with people that are assuming they can outrun Trump, even if he's winning their state. If Trump is actually going to make the races toxic for the GOP, they could be put in a predicament as polling and fundraising in these contests indicate Democrats that are ready to take these contests if Trump continues to flounder. If Trump loses the White House, the Democratic VP would cast the tie-breaking vote (not Mike Pence), so the D's would need a net of 3, not 4 seats. Even 1-2 of the below seats moving into tossup territory makes a majority that much more likely. It's worth remembering that all of the last four presidents have started their time in the White House with a Senate majority held by their parties, though all (with the exception so far of Trump) lost that eventually. Could a President Biden or President Warren be so lucky? Let's find out (as a reminder, these are ranked by likelihood of the seat switching parties, with #1 being most likely)!
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| Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) |
10. Georgia-B
For the curious, this is the Johnny Isakson seat, and is our new entry on this list. I'm keeping this seat one behind the other Georgia contest because it has yet to attract a major candidate, and because of the blanket primary (where just the top two finishers regardless of party will advance to the runoff if no one gets to 50%), it's more likely to go to a runoff, which historically bodes poorly for Georgia Democrats (in the past 12 years, they've lost high-profile contests for the Senate and Secretary of State in such runoffs). The Democrats biffed badly when they couldn't get Stacey Abrams or Lucy McBath to run here, and I honestly don't know if they'll be able to find a candidate who could actually carry this without a clear-the-field candidate who also happens to be African-American (and there really isn't one if you can't convince Abrams or McBath to run). (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) |
This race will have a primary before the general, giving better credence to the idea that if someone like Joe Biden wins the state on a presidential level, the Democratic Senate candidate could too (though if a third party candidate prevents no one from hitting 50%, this would also go to a runoff). Democrats have former House candidate Jon Ossoff and Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson as their best chances to run against Sen. David Perdue, but neither have the immediate star power of Abrams or McBath (I argued before that having McBath and Tomlinson, two women from different backgrounds and geographic bases, was probably the only way the Democrats had a chance at either of these seats, and I stand behind that). Still, there's not a lot of options to fill out a Top 10, and Georgia has shown some trends toward the Democrats even though they have yet to actually win anything statewide. A strong showing here would at least give them a decent chance at another House seat. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| John James (R-MI) |
One could argue this should be in 7th, but I'm feeling that race at the moment, and honestly-Donald Trump seems to be giving up on Michigan even though he won it in 2016. The Trump nature of the seat, combined with the Democrats having a pretty vanilla candidate (Sen. Gary Peters is the sort of one-term incumbent who still has lower-than-it-should-be name recognition) leaves the Republicans with an opening, and they took it with John James, an Iraq War veteran who will probably be able to get some crossover support in 2020, though it's hard to say how much. Peters probably will still win this seat unless Trump can win statewide thanks to his ability to raise money and the fact that the Democratic nominee for president will be showering him with visits to avoid Hillary Clinton's hubris (unlike some of the next people on this list, Peters won't turn these opportunities down), but this will be a single-digit race, and Debbie Stabenow's unimpressive victory in 2018 should comfort no Democrats. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-KS) |
This race is moving up a few slots for a couple of different reasons. First, the Republicans will have a splintered primary, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo won't be running (and considering his involvement with the Ukraine scandal, he might not have been the silver bullet the GOP would have hoped for). The splintered primary leaves room for former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach to win on a plurality like he did in 2018 by just landing conservative hardliners. Secondly, Trump's job approval rating in this state hit a net negative for the first time ever in October; this isn't to say that Trump will lose Kansas (he won't), but it is to say that his margin-of-victory might be small enough that someone even more unpopular in the state like Kobach could under-run it enough to lose. And third, the Democrats cleared their field for their best candidate: Barbara Bollier. Bollier is a state senator, a former physician, a moderate, and a recent convert to the Democratic Party, who switched after the election of Laura Kelly as governor. I'm not usually an advocate for people who just switched parties, but in a state like Kansas, the nominee is going to need a lot of recent converts in Johnson, Sedgwick, and Wyandotte Counties to continue to vote against their own historical tendencies in order to win. Having someone whom it will be difficult to call a "career Democrat" should help, so Bollier is a solid recruit. (Previous Ranking: 10)
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| Theresa Greenfield (D-IA) |
Here's where the big jump happens, though, and I am as surprised as you that Iowa doesn't feel so much a "could be competitive" as it does a race that genuinely has potential to go to the Democrats. Sen. Joni Ernst has struggled in recent weeks to explain to Iowa voters why Trump shouldn't be impeached, and it shows. Combined with an unpopular trade war that disproportionately targets farmers and a rapidly nose-diving approval rating (which shows her underwater for the first time since she was elected), Ernst is in trouble. The first-term senator was out-raised this past quarter by her chief Democratic rival Theresa Greenfield, an Iowa businesswoman. I'd still bet on Ernst-she's a savvy politician who knows there's a lot of length between now and next November, but if Trump loses Iowa (and I see no reason not to label it a swing state at this point), Ernst isn't Chuck Grassley where she's guaranteed decades of goodwill with the voters. Instead she's a first-term senator in a purple(?) state that enjoyed having a senator of each party. That doesn't spell loss, but Greenfield is clearly positioning herself to be the beneficiary of any Trump hatred in the state. (Previous Ranking: 6)
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| Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) |
This race is moving down one mostly because Seat #4 is becoming more competitive, because make no mistake-Sen. Thom Tillis is in trouble (from all angles). A first-term senator in a state that likes to throw out senators with a shocking frequency (In the past 40 years, I don't think there's a single state that more enjoyed their senators being replaced than North Carolina), he struggles to go against his presumed Democratic nominee (who nearly out-raised him, despite State Sen. Cal Cunningham having a contested primary ahead of him), and is also polling with lukewarm numbers against Garland Tucker, a venture capitalist running to Tillis's right in the primary. Tillis has been hugging Donald Trump closely, assuming that Tucker is the bigger threat, but considering Trump's approval rating in the state (and that Tillis's is even lower), he should be more worried about the general in my opinion. There's a decent possibility that Trump loses the state, or wins it by a slim enough margin that Republicans sick of Tillis would be willing to split their ballots, giving Cunningham a victory. For those doing the math, I'm currently predicting this state as the tipping point, so a loss for Tillis would be a big loss for Mitch McConnell as well. (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-ME) |
Sen. Susan Collins has not yet announced if she's going to run for reelection, though most indications are that she will. If she doesn't, it might be because she saw the writing on the wall. While Maine wasn't a particularly strong victory for Hillary Clinton, she still won the state, and it's likely Biden/Warren will do better here given Trump's anemic approval ratings. Combined with a challenger who is printing money on the fundraising circuit (State House Speaker Sara Gideon out-raised Collins even though she's got a primary challenger and Collins so far doesn't), and the Brett Kavanaugh vote that she can't shake, Collins is in a lose-lose position on impeachment. It's clear she can't support impeachment and survive a Republican Primary, but despite her longtime success at crossing the aisle, one wonders if the Democrats would ever forgive her for backing Trump in such a public way. Collins is only 66-she'd easily be able to make a play for governor in the next decade (a job she has long flirted with) if she retired now and went out a championed hero (the likes of people like Joe Manchin & Dianne Feinstein already sing her praises...they'd do it more so if there wasn't any political risk of it)-could she call it up, giving the Democrats a free seat, or will she risk the increasing likelihood that she'll go out the way of her hero Margaret Chase Smith, too out-of-touch with local voters to win a fifth term? (Previous Ranking: 5)
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| Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) |
I know it's not a popular sentiment, but I'd bet on Susan Collins losing at this point, which means that I also am betting on all of the Top 3 losing as well. Sen. Martha McSally is about as good as the Arizona GOP should be able to expect-a fighter pilot, she's a pragmatic conservative in the mold of John McCain. But Arizona is shifting blue fast, and unlike places like Arizona & Texas, in 2018 actual victories showed the way with four Democratic women winning statewide office, including now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who beat McSally for that seat before McSally was appointed to this seat after the resignation of Sen. Jon Kyl. Democrats scored a home run in Mark Kelly, an astronaut who is the husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. Kelly has obliterated McSally on the fundraising trail (and that's a key strength of the senator's), and polls better than her. It's entirely possible he'll beat her by more than Sinema at this rate, and unlike 2018, where McSally had Gov. Doug Ducey taking a strong victory, there's no guarantee that Donald Trump can still win the state he barely took in 2016. Without Trump helping at the top of the ticket, McSally's short tenure in the Senate (and likely her political career) would be over. (Previous Ranking: 3)
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| Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) |
The DSCC got what it wanted when former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) got into this race, and he has done what he was recruited to do, taking up a huge fundraising balance and slowly picking off primary opponents who once looked like they might rise-up and become stars in the party. It's possible that Hickenlooper could still lose if say the progressive wing of the party were to settle on just one person (like former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff), but I think that might be a lost cause at this point-Hickenlooper is too big of a giant to best. Regardless, the Democrats have a huge advantage here. Sen. Cory Gardner is one of only two Republican senators left who represents a Hillary Clinton state, and seems destined to join his former colleague Dean Heller as someone who lost the day that Donald Trump was elected. It's hard to find a scenario where he can gain a second term. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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| Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) |
Alabama continues to be the one clear victory for the Republicans, as it's impossible to see a way for the Democrats to hold this seat. Despite being relatively popular, Sen. Doug Jones is still a Democrat in a state that Donald Trump will be winning by 25 points-even Joe Manchin couldn't beat that (Collin Peterson has but in 2020 even that feels like a lost cause). Jones's best play would be to run a respectable campaign, not embarrass himself by doing something idiotic like refusing to endorse any candidate in the general, and then being picked as Attorney General during the next administration, following oddly in the footsteps of Jeff Sessions, the reason he became a senator in the first place. Jones's bizarre victory protected healthcare for twelve million Americans and he became the first Democrat in a generation to win in the Yellowhammer State-that's an impressive enough political career to not worry too much about a double-digit loss next year. (Previous Ranking: 1)
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