The State of the Senate

While the presidential race starts to winnow (our first "significant" drop out of the race, Eric Swalwell, was the first out of the race and likely won't be the last before summer's end), the Senate race is assembling faster than I think most people would have expected.  While there are still races that could be shaken up (and there is likely at least one or two major Senate candidates who will seriously contest races next year who haven't made themselves known), by-and-large a lot of the contests for this year have actually already been determined, and as a result I think it's time for us to check in with our second State of the Senate of the cycle.  Listed below are the ten most vulnerable seats on the map, with #1 being the seat most likely to switch sides.  As a reminder, the Democrats need a net gain of three seats (plus the vice presidency to win back the majority in the US Senate).

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)

Honorable Mention: There are about four seats right now that could conceivably go to the Democrats "in the right circumstances."  You'll find as we wade through this list that really only the Top 5-6 seats are what you'd consider properly competitive, and the rest are situated or poised for if Donald Trump or the Democratic nominee over-performs (or if a specific candidate enters the race and does oddly well).  #10 actually makes the list because the situations leading to it becoming competitive are the most plausible, but Texas, Montana, or Kentucky are within the realm of possibility of the right candidate gets into the race.  In Montana, former Governor Steve Bullock's quixotic run for president almost certainly needs to end and he needs to try for a different DC job if he wants any sort of say in public policy post his current run in Helena.  If Bullock enters, he would still be an underdog, but he is not a Bredesen, Bayh, or Strickland; as a sitting governor, he's got very recent proof that the state will elect him (twice) and he's relatively popular there.  Bullock enters this race, he'd make the list; without him in the contest, it's hard to see Steve Daines losing.  A similar sort of scenario is true for Beto O'Rourke.  Liberals on Twitter bemoan the fact that MJ Heger is being dismissed, but while she seems like a candidate with potential for when Texas is properly purple, Democrats would be fools to dismiss a man who came so close to glory last year just because he clearly shouldn't have run for president.  If O'Rourke gets into the race, I'd also add Texas to the below list, though like Bullock he'd be an underdog (both would need a Dem nominee that was playing for 350 at the presidential level, not 270).  The final contest I'm listing here is Kentucky.  Mitch McConnell, as a Republican, should be safe from losing by virtue of Donald Trump winning the race, but with Amy McGrath now in the race there's at least someone who will clearly be able to raise money in the race (though it'd be more promising fame if she'd won).  McConnell is consistently the least popular senator in Congress, and if McGrath were to frame herself as someone who wants to clean up DC and take down McConnell specifically (rather than the Republican Party), she could conceivably win if McConnell is just really, really hated (that happens on occasion in waves-see also Tim Hutchison in 2002 or Chuck Robb in 2000).  That said, Kentucky is one of the rare red states where Democrats consistently put up quality candidates (since their last Senate victory, they've run congressmen, state legislators, and statewide office-holders to no avail), so McGrath isn't some Beto O'Rourke situation where we don't know how putting up a top-tier candidate will turn out.

Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R-KS)

10. Kansas 

I don't know that I ever thought I'd see the day that Kansas would be on a list like this, but it is.  Republicans haven't lost a Senate contest in the Sunflower State since 1932, and honestly there's only been like one or two close calls in those 80+ years.  This year the GOP should be fine, unless two things happen.  One, the Republicans nominate former Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who entered the contest this week and recently lost the gubernatorial race.  It seems difficult to believe Kobach would win the nomination after the battering he received from now-Gov. Laura Kelly last year, but he just needs a plurality, and unless Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gets into the race, he's by far the biggest name and has a sizable conservative base in the primary.  If Kobach is the nominee, and the Democrats don't blow it in their own primary (as I've mentioned before, I think that State Sen. Barbara Bollier is a unique enough candidate to break through for Democrats) it's possible that the growing moderate-to-liberal wing of the state in the Kansas City suburbs could duplicate Kelly's victory and win the race for Bollier.  It's unlikely (this is still Kansas, after all, a state that will surely give Donald Trump a 20-point victory) but it's plausible enough that Republicans shouldn't dimiss the prospect.  (Previous Ranking: N/A)

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)

9. New Hampshire 

Republicans probably lost their chance at this seat the day that Gov. Chris Sununu declined a run for Congress and instead wanted to make another reelection bid (it's likely Sununu saw 2022 as his best shot at following in his brother's footsteps into the Senate).  Republicans haven't been able to get a big name like former Sen. Kelly Ayotte into the race, and as a result they're likely going to have to settle for a political newcomer such as former Brigadier General Donald Bolduc.  Going with military figures was actually a strong ploy by Democrats last year, but Sen. Jeanne Shaheen has a heavy advantage against Bolduc, as she's a longtime player in the state, and while he can play the "new to DC" game, New Hampshire is a state that is much more inclined to the national mood and straight-ticket voting.  If Bolduc can't get Donald Trump to be competitive in New Hampshire, there's no dice, and it's likely he'd need Trump to win this state by a couple of points.  That's not out of the question, but Trump consistently has a double-digit net disapproval rating in the Granite State, so Shaheen is safe as long as he's not overcoming such a thing. (Previous Ranking: 8)

Mayor Teresa Tomlinson (D-GA)

8. Georgia 

There's been less movement on this list than you'd expect, mostly because while the Democrats have decent candidates in the races that were clearly competitive, they weren't able to land most of their "the state is only competitive if this person runs" candidates like Bullock & O'Rourke, and in the Peach State, former State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams.  Abrams refusal to run here (almost certainly forgoing this race in order to run for governor in 2022), is probably going to look like foolishness if the Democrats win the White House next year (in which case she'll be taking on an incumbent governor with a Democratic president in a red state, something most people can't come back from), but that's something we've discussed myriad times before and I'm getting bored with it.  The point is-Georgia might have gone down only one slot, but it's gone down significantly more than that in terms of competitiveness in this cycle.  The Democrats only hope is that someone like Mayor Teresa Tomlinson proves to A) be a Stacey Abrams or Beto O'Rourke herself and B) the Democrats are competitive enough on a presidential level to take her along on their coat strings.  Democrats in 2018 did quite well here, but none made it to actually win statewide, and no candidates came close in the runoff.  With that runoff law in place (where Democrats almost always forget to vote in great enough numbers the second time around), it's difficult to see a path for Tomlinson to win without a Democrat winning her state outright, and I just don't see that happening in the polls right now.  (Previous Ranking: 7)

John James (R-MI)

7. Michigan 

The one state where the Republicans did get their preferred candidate is Michigan.  Army veteran John James did surprisingly well last year in his race against Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and his recruitment to the 2020 Senate race was a big win for the NRSC.  He's facing Sen. Gary Peters, who while not unpopular, doesn't have the same sort of established presence that Stabenow had, though he'll also not be as complacent as she was (in hindsight, Stabenow's performance in the Michigan Senate race was pretty paltry).  What the Republicans need to prove that they can actually win here is two things.  One, they need to prove that it wasn't Stabenow who under-performed here, but instead that the state is just way redder than past contests (2016 excluded) have indicated.  Two, they need Donald Trump to win here.  I've said multiple times that if Michigan Democrats had known Donald Trump could win the state, he likely wouldn't have (it was his closest victory).  They won't be caught by surprise again, and it's hard to see a lot of, say, Biden/James voters in the state so I think the GOP needs this state in order for this to be an option.  But James's candidacy gives them an opening, and makes this the most vulnerable D-held seat outside of the Deep South. (Previous Ranking: 9)

Theresa Greenfield (D-IA)

6. Iowa 

The biggest movement on this list is in Iowa, where the president's tariff wars are going to hit the local economy the hardest, and as a result might be making a seat that shouldn't be competitive an option for a DSCC in search of more opportunities.  Sen. Joni Ernst is popular, but she still has ties to the president, and while I'd wager Trump would win the state today, a lot can happen in the next year and his economic policies aren't going to endear him to many Iowa farmers and businesses reliant on a healthy agricultural field.  After several high-profile refusals (Tom Vilsack, Cindy Axne), the Democrats seem to have landed on businesswoman Theresa Greenfield as their nominee.  Greenfield is most well-known nationally for the signature-collecting error that prevented her from running for the House last year (Axne went on to win that seat), but she was running a solid campaign up until that point, and shouldn't be easily dismissed.  Ernst is the favorite, but Iowa is the state I'd keep an eye on, as 2018 proved they're more than willing to throw out well-liked Republican incumbents if they feel the national party abandoned them, and it's entirely possible it was 2016 that was the fluke year, and not 2008/2012/2018.  (Previous Ranking: 10)

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)

5. Maine 

We now reach a different echelon of races, ones that I anticipate to be properly competitive next year.  A lot of people seem to be dismissive of Democrats' chances in Maine.  They do have a point-Susan Collins hasn't struggled to win this seat in over 20 years, and still remains relatively popular in the Pine Tree State.  It's also a state that was marginally less blue in 2016 than it had been in years, and might be trending toward swing state status if Democrats aren't careful.  But I'll counter that every "totally impervious to straight-ticket voting" candidate has lost or seen their defenses severely weakened in recent years, and there's no reason to assume that Collins is impervious to such trends.  The Democrats recruited a star candidate in State House Speaker Sara Gideon (arguably their best recruit of the cycle if the DSCC can't convince Abrams, O'Rourke, or Bullock to change their minds), and she's proven to be a fundraising dynamo; in her first week, Gideon raised $1 million, and that's not counting the $4 million that's awaiting her if she wins the primary.  As a result of Collins's links to Donald Trump and specifically Brett Kavanaugh, it's clear that this will be the first campaign in a while where she won't have an obvious cash advantage over her opponent.  Collins is still favored, but an anti-Trump mood would cost her dearly, and while she'll outrun the president in the state, let's not assume it'll be by a huge margin.  If the Democratic nominee can approach something more akin to President Obama's 16-point win here (from 2012), Collins is likely in trouble.  (Previous Ranking: 4)

State Sen. Erica Smith (D-NC)

4. North Carolina 

I moved this seat up one slot not because the Democrats have gotten a star recruit (they haven't), but because the approval ratings of both Donald Trump and Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina are so sloppy, it's entirely possible they don't need one.  Tillis was not well-liked in 2014 (it's probable that had he run in 2012 or 2016 he would have lost to Sen. Kay Hagen), but he won in a wave election & it shows with him having anemic numbers in the state.  This is also a purple state where he's not necessarily guaranteed a Trump victory at the top of the ticket, a big deal for an incumbent that might not be able to outrun Trump even if he does get a victory.  If the Democrats can make this state competitive, that should help what is decidedly a B-slate of candidates in the primary, with the biggest names being State Sens. Erica Smith and Cal Cunningham.  Cunningham (a white man) seems to be the preferred candidate of the DSCC, though Smith (an African-American woman) has done well against Tillis in what limited polling of the race I've seen, and could be formidable in a primary where the bulk of the electorate will be African-Americans.  In a post-Stacey Abrams world, the "Bradley Effect" may be largely evaporated, but it's worth noting that no black woman has ever won a Senate or Governors race in the South.  Can Smith be the one to do it, or will Democrats push her out (and risk alienating the state's African-American base)?  Either way, North Carolina is a crucial cog in Chuck Schumer's plan, so expect him to pay pretty close attention to how this primary works out.  (Previous Ranking: 5)

Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ)

3. Arizona 

Arizona is perhaps the only state on this list that I'd consider a proper, true tossup.  Every state after it, to varying degrees, is one that I'd consider leaning in some capacity to the incumbent party, and every seat above it I'd argue is headed toward the challenger's party.  Arizona, though, is the race with the most doubt.  This is because the Republicans have a solid candidate, incumbent Sen. Martha McSally, who is yet a proven loser at the ballot box, having lost last year to now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and then afterward was quickly appointed to the other seat with the resignation of Jon Kyl.  McSally is still formidable, as she's a proven fundraiser in a state that (before Sinema) hadn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1980's, but it wasn't just Sinema that won statewide last year-three other Democratic women did, in a state that increasingly looks to be purple.  That leaves astronaut Mark Kelly, the husband of beloved former-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, an opening to win the state's other Senate seat.  Kelly is a political newcomer (though obviously he's seen campaigns firsthand through his wife), which is always a risky game (only 9 current senators have won their seats without previously being elected to public office), but he's already proven an adept fundraiser and seems to be doing what he needs to be doing to win this race.  If you're someone who wants to invest in the most competitive race on the map, you could do a lot worse than Arizona. (Previous Ranking: 3)

Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D-CO)

2. Colorado 

For all of the talk about John Hickenlooper being a burden in the presidential race, costing the Democrats an easy victory in Colorado, it's worth noting that Hickenlooper is hardly the silver bullet that a Beto O'Rourke or Steve Bullock might prove to be.  After all, it looks like Colorado Democrats could take this seat without any help from him, and he might be the only Democrat in the state not running for this seat by the end of the primary.  Right now, Democrats have 4 current or former state legislators in the contest (Mike Johnston, Alice Madden, Andrew Romanoff, & Angela Williams) , while Democrats also have former Ambassador Dan Baer and former US Attorney John Walsh as options in the race.  And this is just counting candidates that are running as of today-there are still just as many that are still considering a run, including candidates like Rep. Joe Neguse and Secretary of State Jena Griswold, both of whom (on paper) would become the "highest-profile" contenders without Hickenlooper in the race.  Johnston & Baer both have over $1 million on-hand already, and Romanoff & Griswold led a recent poll of the primary (though with a lot of people undecided).  Considering Hickenlooper's environmental record, which would be easy for the most liberal candidates to exploit, it's entirely possible he'd struggle in this primary in the same way he has in the presidential.  All of this activity is an indication that the Democrats know what's probably inevitable: incumbent-Sen. Cory Gardner is in deep trouble.  Elected (barely) in an enormous Republican wave a few years back against an incumbent Mark Udall who didn't seem prepared to handle attacks on his stance on abortion (something that would be easier in a post-Brett Kavanaugh world that proved that Udall was right that reproductive rights were on the line in his contest), Gardner is now in a state that went hard blue last year, and where he is now the only statewide-elected Republican in a state that, while once swing, is definitely "Lean D" on a presidential level.  It's entirely possible considering he's the only Republican statewide that the Democrats are lining up because they know this might be their last shot at a promotion in a while, and that it's a very good shot if they win the nomination.  (Previous Ranking: 2)

Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL)

1. Alabama 

The same can obviously be said for Republicans in Alabama.  Doug Jones's election in 2017 was almost certainly a fluke, a combination of a truly abysmal opponent, high African-American turnout, and a general antipathy toward Donald Trump even in a solidly red state that won't be achievable in a presidential year.  Jones will stand for reelection, and will put up a respectable showing for a Democrat in Alabama, but this is almost certainly a goner for the Democrats unless something bizarre happens.  Democrats crow quite a bit about a potential rematch against former Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, but Moore isn't polling well and Alabama's runoff elections make it unlikely he'd win the nomination again, unless he faced disgraced former Gov. Robert Bentley (who isn't even in the race yet)...and even then I'd wager Moore or Bentley would have the upper-hand against Jones.  More likely, Jones will end up fighting someone like Rep. Bradley Byrne or Secretary of State John Merrill, and will lose by double digits.  The Democrats still got a very good run out of Jones's short tenure in the Senate (it's entirely possible that Obamacare would be a goner at this point were it not for Jones replacing John McCain's vote to protect it), but if Jones is still in the public eye in 2021, it's more likely he'll be doing as US Attorney General, not as a US Senator.  (Previous Ranking: 1)