Where the Democratic Primary Stands

Sens. Elizabeth Warren & Kamala Harris had to
be all smiles after this week

I think the most surprising thing people find about me when they know I'm a political fan is that, the morning after debates, I have to confess-I don't watch debates live.  When it comes to general elections, I get too nervous.  I want to show support, and will tweet or crow about it, but I wait until it's done, assessing the morning after quarterbacking and watching clips from the debates.  Because ultimately what people write about the debates is what is ultimately going to shape the public opinion of the debates, particularly early conversations about candidates.  As a result, I'm going to give my assessment on the race based on now watching myriad clips and trying to parcel through what is clearly filler in the morning after recaps, and what is not.  Here's my advice for the candidates:

Kamala Harris & Elizabeth Warren: Did what they needed to earn their spots in the running.  Warren needs an answer for what she's going to do to ensure her Senate seat stays blue (veto proof Massachusetts legislature, hint HINT) and both would do well to show how they'll win places like Arizona & Wisconsin, but well-done, they've earned their post-debate bumps.

Joe Biden & Bernie Sanders: They didn't wow, but they're poll leaders and the most well-known of the candidates.  They stay in, and if Harris or Warren start to skyrocket (likely one or both will), the "how to handle the young-uns" strategy will finally be put to the test.  At this point it seems probable that Biden, Harris, Warren, or Sanders will be the Democratic nominee in 2020, possibly in that order.

Pete Buttigieg & Julian Castro: Both are positioned as the likely running-mates of the two female candidates.  Buttigieg is in a considerably better position than Castro considering where he was coming from in the polls, and would be a good counter to Harris (she's a woman of color from a coastal state, he's a white male from the Midwest who still somehow carries a bucket of supporters in the primary).  Honestly, while Biden/Harris might be the ticket with the most obvious general election appeal, Harris/Buttigieg might be the ticket that is the easiest to see happening and getting over the 270 electoral vote threshold.

Warren/Castro is also an option.  Warren's options are limited (the idea of an all-female ticket is cool, but it's literally never worked even on a state level, and I doubt any Democrat running is going to take the risk), as she'll need to pick a man of color that isn't from her region of the country (ruling out Cory Booker & Deval Patrick)-Castro fits that bill and did well at the debates.  Both of these men should continue running if only to gain more fans/delegates to barter with to get onto the ticket, but it's worth noting they're probably just running for VP right now (considering one's a small city mayor and the other is a former HUD Secretary, this is still a big promotion, so well done to both in their races so far).

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)

Beto O'Rourke: Needs to run for the Senate.  At this point, based on public polling in Texas (showing it a lighter red than imagined), and given that his campaign (which most needed the boost of pretty much any high-profile candidate this week) needed a win this week, it's clear he's running a losing battle for president.  The appetite for a candidate like him isn't there, and if it is it's probably going to go with someone like Pete Buttigieg or Kamala Harris instead.  O'Rourke will be only 48-years-old in 2020.  Running against and beating John Cornyn (an entirely plausible scenario) would ensure his political survival for another decade.  2024, 2028, & 2032 are all possibilities for him, particularly as a statewide winner in an increasingly important state for Democrats as the decade continues, and he'd have a national platform as a US Senator.  If he wants a political career, he needs to find a way to bow out gracefully, as being Secretary of Labor is not going to be a strong enough platform for him to launch another campaign down the road, and flavors of the month eventually become sour (I mean-look how quickly Pete Buttigieg became the new Beto O'Rourke).

Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Michael Bennet, & Cory Booker: None of them can do better in a different office, none are really hurting their careers by running for president, and none can aspire to a different higher office, so I say stay in, but don't hurt your chances in your home state too much-you'll be returning to their relatively soon.

Bill de Blasio: Umm, I never got who the audience was for this campaign in the first place, but I suspect he's running for some sort of cabinet position, so I'd avoid bad-mouthing any of the four frontrunners.  But really, drop out because literally no one wants this.

Jay Inslee: Inslee is less running for president and more running to give climate change more dialogue in the race, which is extremely noble & worthwhile, so he should stay in, and hopefully will be on any candidates shortlist for Interior Secretary.

Marianne Williamson: Hopefully you can re-negotiate your book deal to capitalize on your fifteen minutes.

Andrew Yang: Thirty years from now, waiters in Silicon Valley are going to know Yang's anecdote about the one time he was on the same stage as Kamala Harris & Joe Biden by heart.

Steve Bullock: Yes, I get that it sucks that Williamson and Yang were included while a two-term sitting governor who fought for Medicare expansion wasn't included, and yes, the DNC probably should have figured out how to bend the rules a little for Bullock to get one of their spots, but dude-you're never going to be president, and with Inslee getting this kind of traction, your best shot at a cabinet position is out.  You aren't quite as much of an open-and-shut case as O'Rourke (your state is redder, and your opponent is better), but it's pretty clear that if you want to be one of the most powerful people in the country, you should translate your popularity into a Senate run in Montana, as if you won you'd essentially be the Democratic Susan Collins, a critical blessing to every piece of legislation that went to a President Harris or President Biden's desk.  Susan Collins is arguably the country's most powerful woman outside of Nancy Pelosi, so this is nothing to sneeze at.  Run for the Senate and help save the Republic, dude.

John Hickenlooper-I know people frequently group Hickenlooper with Bullock & O'Rourke on the "run for Senate, damn it!" train, but honestly we can beat Gardner with someone like Alice Madden, who doesn't have the environmental baggage that Hickenlooper does.  I'd be fine with him dropping out and just becoming a high-priced lobbyist, as we don't really need him in any race in 2020.

Eric Swalwell & Tim Ryan: Don't quit your day job...maybe come back when you've been willing to risk it in a statewide primary & won the governor's or Senate races (Feinstein can't stick around forever, and DeWine & Portman will need opponents come 2022).

Joe Sestak & John Delaney: Don't quit your day...oh wait, you already did.  Why, exactly, are you running for president again?

Tulsi Gabbard & Seth Moulton: Honestly, these two might be Exhibit A in my counter to the conventional wisdom that "it can't hurt to run for president," as both could well see House primary challenges even if they return to their races (and they surely will).  Both are running to the center but come from left-leaning districts, which might leave them without an office if they're not careful as both have attracted interested parties to their seats that could stay in even if they return after humiliating election losses.

Mike Gravel: Sure, stick it out buddy.  Every generation needs its Harold Stassen.