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| Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) |
This article is not going to focus on Beto O'Rourke's future, which has been hyperbolic (seriously, people, thinking he'd be a Democratic nominee in 2020 regardless of whether he wins is absurd-he needs to win in order to be taken seriously for 2020...this is not 1860 and he's not Abe Lincoln). Nor is it about his chances at winning (they're not great, but they're definitely there-the Democrats just need a bigger turnout and more crossover than they would normally get). It is instead, oddly enough, about his actual career so far, and how, if he wins in 18 days, he'll become an elite sixth member in a club of giant-slayers in the US Senate.
It is relatively common to go from the House to the Senate; other than perhaps a law degree or a 7-digit bank account, it's the thing most senators have in common. Currently, there are 49 members of the US Senate that previously served in the US House, and a number of candidates in 2018 (Martha McSally, Kyrsten Sinema, Jacky Rosen, Marsha Blackburn, & Kevin Cramer) come with the US House on their resumés. But O'Rourke (along with longshot candidates Jim Renacci and Lou Barletta) stand apart from these races because he actually defeated an incumbent to win his current seat, and is currently attempting to upset a sitting senator. It is rare for one single person to pull off this feat. In fact, of the 49 senators who served in the House, only five have won seats by taking out an incumbent in both the House and the Senate.
For those who don't know, O'Rourke's ascendancy to the US House was nearly as shocking as his potential move to the US Senate. An El Paso City Councilman, O'Rourke started what seemed like a quixotic bid for the US House in 2012 by challenging 8-term Congressman Silvestre Reyes. Reyes was considered an entrenched incumbent, and was endorsed by both Presidents Clinton & Obama. However, O'Rourke ran to Reyes' left on LGBT rights and drug policy, and managed to oust him without having to resort to a runoff (just a few hundred votes shy of such a scenario, where Reyes may have been favored because he was caught sleeping-at-the-wheel a bit by O'Rourke), and as a result O'Rourke won a safely blue seat.
No other serious candidate for the Senate this year can claim such an accomplishment. Cramer, Rosen, Blackburn, and Sinema all won open seats in their bids for the House, and while McSally bested an incumbent to win her House seat (Ron Barber), she's running for an open seat in the Senate. Two longshot candidates could theoretically make a play for the same title as O'Rourke, but neither looks particularly competitive to actually take a Senate seat. Rep. Jim Renacci of Ohio is running against Sen. Sherrod Brown, and bested Rep. John Boccieri in his bid for the House, but polling shows him severely behind Brown. Rep. Lou Barletta is also polling well behind Sen. Bob Casey, but like Renacci he also beat a Democratic incumbent (Paul Kanjorski) to win his seat. However, polls show only O'Rourke has an actual shot at winning. Because of this, I think it'd be fun to take a quick peak at the five other current senators who had to best incumbents in both their races to end up in the Senate. We'll go alphabetically, starting with...
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| Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) |
House Race: In 1982, Carper was the sitting State Treasurer of Delaware, then considerably more Republican that it is considered now (a very specific type of ultra-wealthy, white Republican was generally who was elected in the state). Rep. Thomas Evans (R) was such a man, and was in his third term in office when Democrats, particularly Sen. Joe Biden, pushed for Carper to run for the seat. Carper was leading in polls, but some dirty campaign tactics (Evans' starting a false abuse charge against Carper), threatened to derail him until it came out that Evans' campaign was one of the sources of the false charges, allowing Carper to win.
Senate Race: Carper ran against longtime incumbent Bill Roth in 2000, and probably would have struggled in most years. Delaware at the time liked both men, but Roth was getting on in years and stumbled during the race (literally), and was viewed as too old and frail to continue on in the seat, so Carper won relatively easily.
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: Evans lost by the closer margin (six points to Roth's 12), but it's hard to say. In a lot of ways Carper lucked out in 2000 as Roth's age gave voters in Delaware an easy out (Roth, would he have been elected, wouldn't have lived through his term as he died in 2003). Had he retired as many Republicans wanted him to do at the time and stepped aside for Rep. Mike Castle, another popular Republican closer to Carper's age, which would have been a truer battle.
Any Other Giant-Slaying?: No. Carper was also the Governor of Delaware in addition to the offices listed above, but I can't find any other incumbents he's defeated. Still, he's one of the most successful politicians in the country, having held public office continuously for over 40 years without a single electoral defeat.
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| Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) |
House Race: One of the things that sort of sets you apart as being a two-time giant slayer is there has to actually be beatable incumbents two cycles in a row. It's worth noting that none of the sitting senators who have pulled off this dual accomplishment did it with a primary (like O'Rourke would), and so some of these states it's perhaps more interesting in hindsight that there were incumbents of the other party to defeat in the first place. This is certainly true of Louisiana, a state we think of as ruby red but once had a relatively vibrant Democratic bench. Bill Cassidy was one of the main guys to take down the last legs of that bench, starting with Don Cazayoux in 2008. Cazayoux had grabbed a surprise special election win in 2008 (a harbinger of the coming wave for the Democrats), and probably would have been fine in 2010 were it not for State Rep. Michael Jackson running as an independent, in the race. Jackson ran to Cazayoux's left, and his 36,000 votes were more than enough to make up the difference in the race even in 2010, but with him in the contest Cassidy pulled off the win over Cazayoux.
Senate Race: Louisiana's last major Democrat in federal office was Sen. Mary Landrieu (yes, yes, Cedric Richmond, but call me when he actually makes headlines for literally anything). Landrieu had managed to make it through a multitude of scrapes before, but in 2014 she had to deal with Obamacare at the ballot, which was wildly unpopular in her home state and which she had voted to approve. Landrieu managed to at least make it to a runoff in 2014, but when December came, she (like so many Democratic incumbents in 2014) got ousted by a Republican. Amusingly enough, Cassidy had been (like many Republicans in Louisiana) a former Democrat and even contributed to Landrieu's 2002 campaign (something he likened to a "youthful indiscretion" in his campaign).
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: The Cazayoux election was closer (8-points to Landrieu's 11), and probably the bigger accomplishment. Like Carper, Cassidy got in in part because of luck; subtract Jackson from that race, and it's possible that even in the 2010 landslides he loses to Cazayoux as Louisiana likes their incumbents, however short-lived they may be. Landrieu was a major player while Cazayoux was an asterisk by comparison, but Cazayoux probably could have survived at least until 2014/2016 if it weren't for Jackson.
Any Other Giant Slaying?: No. While Cassidy served in the State Senate prior to his tenure in the House, he didn't have to defeat an incumbent to get there.
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| Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) |
House Race: Duckworth, quite frankly, is that rare class of politician who is better at the job than being an actual candidate. That was clear in 2006 when she actually lost what is (to date) the closest race of her career. Six years later, she was taking no chances when she challenged Rep. Joe Walsh in the newly redrawn 8th district, which was considerably bluer than her initial run in 2006. She easily dispatched Walsh, one of the more bombastic members of the 2010 and someone who only beat Melissa Bean two years earlier thanks to the presence of a Green Party candidate on the ballot. Still, though, a win's a win, and Duckworth used the position as a quick springboard to...
Senate Race: ...a race against Mark Kirk. Kirk's initial presence in the Senate was due to a variety of factors-Alexi Giannoulias (whom I recently rediscovered) had underperformed on the trail, the ACA was wildly unpopular, and Democrats got a tad complacent during the Obama midterms. In 2016, though, Kirk was running against Duckworth in an environment that made ticket-splitting increasingly rare (no state split its ticket between Senate and POTUS's parties in 2016), and had to deal with Donald Trump losing badly in Illinois. There was no way he'd win, and with Dick Durbin clearing the way for his protégée, arguably the biggest accomplishment for Duckworth in 2016 was not having a tough primary against Robin Kelly.
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: Duckworth's an impressive senator and has done well with her time in office so far, but let's be clear here-while beating sitting members of the House & Senate are impressive tasks, Walsh & Kirk were about as vulnerable as you can get for an elected incumbent in Congress, and neither was a "big" accomplishment. That said, she beat Walsh by less, so let's go with that.
Any Other Giant Slaying?: Like I said, Duckworth's only truly tough race was 2006, which she lost to Peter Roskam. However, it appears she'll get the last laugh there, as Duckworth is now a sitting US Senator, and Roskam is very vulnerable in his reelection bid this year against Sean Casten.
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| Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) |
House Race: If changing demographics in the state made Duckworth & Cassidy's wins inevitable, and Tom Carper managed to run against candidates who screwed up on the trail, Cory Gardner's on this list due to waves, big red waves that helped him win in races that might not have gone his way in a more neutral environment. His first victory was in 2010, against Rep. Betsy Markey, a candidate who won in a landslide victory in 2008 in part because of Barack Obama but mostly because she was running against arch-conservative Marilyn Musgrave (remember how Michele Bachmann would constantly have close races in a district that Tom Emmer holds with ease?...think that sort of situation but Musgrave actually lost). With a sharp red tide and Markey running in a district that more voted against Musgrave than for her, it was easy for the innocuous Gardner to take out Markey (Markey would four years later also make an ill-timed return to politics by running for State Treasurer during another Republican wave).
Senate Race: The Senate race was a closer affair, and one that wasn't guaranteed victory. Gardner waited late into the cycle (the only recent candidate to successfully mirror such a late Senate entry was Heidi Heitkamp in 2012), as it looked like the GOP was headed to major victories in November, and basically swapped races with Ken Buck (who won Gardner's House seat). This was a close race considering that Mark Udall wasn't a fluke (though he was surely helped by 2008 as much as Markey was), and was more established in Colorado politics, but Democratic turnout sank in 2014, costing the Democrats five incumbents that cycle, including Udall.
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: Easily this was Udall. Markey was a competent candidate who got lucky and was on borrowed time, while Udall was a skilled politician in a seat that would probably be an easy hold for him in 2020 (honestly I could see him wanting a rematch), and 2014 was the only year he could lose such a race. Gardner ran a pretty much perfect campaign, branding Udall "Mark Uterus" (a nickname that stings quite a bit in hindsight considering Udall would have almost certainly voted against Gorsuch & Kavanaugh, and as a result was right that Gardner could doom Roe) to make a mockery of him, and it worked with a depressed Democratic turnout.
Any Other Giant Slaying?: No, actually. Gardner was appointed to the state legislature, and therefore never bested another incumbent prior to his time in Congress. The better question is can he hold on in 2020? There will likely be no Republican that Democrats will go after harder in 2020 to try to win the Senate (or expand their majority, depending on how this year goes).
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| Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) |
House Race: Two years after two brutal defeats (first in the Democratic Primary for governor, then as the general election lieutenant governor candidate), Stabenow saw an opportunity to rebound politically by making a play against Rep. Dick Chrysler, one of the dozens of Republicans who won blue seats during the Republican Revolution of 1994. Stabenow was successful (Chrysler had held longtime Rep. Bob Carr to a tight race in 1992, so it's not really fair to call him a one-term wonder, but his shellacking from Stabenow proves he wasn't going to last long), and quickly regained her status as a "rising star" in the Michigan Democratic Party.
Senate Race: She cemented her place as a star four years later when she bested Sen. Spencer Abraham in the 2000 elections, which while remembered as being close for the Senate, were blowouts when it came to the actual Senate (five incumbent Republicans lost reelection that year, as well as one Democrat, making it one of the worst years for incumbents in recent memory for the Senate).
Which Race was the Bigger Accomplishment?: Abraham for sure. While neither of these were walks in the park, Abraham was a Republican fixture that would go on to serve as Secretary of Energy under President Bush, while Chrysler was largely forgettable as a candidate.
Any Other Giant Slaying?: I think so. Data this far back is hard to find for state legislative races, but it looks like Stabenow did defeat Tom Holcomb in 1978 in a primary for the State House according to Political Graveyard. I can't find any data regarding her time on the Ingham County Board of Commissioners, but she definitely was running for an open seat when she was elected to the State Senate. Stabenow is one of only two women (the other being Olympia Snowe) to have been elected to serve in both houses of the state legislatures, as well as both houses of Congress. Interestingly enough, Stabenow's protégée (State Sen. Dianne Byrum) would lose her House seat in 2000 to Rep. Mike Bishop by only 111 votes. Were she to have won, it's entirely possible that Byrum, rather than Gary Peters, would be serving alongside Stabenow right now in Congress, and could be the third woman on that list.
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