5 Thoughts On...Jon Kyl's Senate Appointment

Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl (both R-AZ)

There is a lot going on today in the news (the Kavanaugh hearing, Rahm Emanuel announcing he won't stand again for mayor, the juicy excerpts of Bob Woodward's book), but I'm going to focus on a headline that's going to be overlooked by most media outlets even though it's of significant importance: the announcement of former Sen. Jon Kyl as Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey's replacement for the late Sen. John McCain's seat.  Kyl's nomination is pretty generic-he's a former senator, well-liked by the establishment while not particularly offensive to the hard right (we'll get to that in a second).  It does, however, have a domino effect that could be felt immediately, but particularly in November and 2020 or beyond.  As a result, I want to share five thoughts I had about this announcement.

1. Jon Kyl Immediately Makes This Seat More Conservative

Sen. John McCain was, by-and-large, a pretty conservative senator who occasionally had a wild "maverick" streak in his voting, most recently in his decision to vote against the measure to replace Obamacare last July.  This won't be the case with Jon Kyl.  While he's not what one would consider a fire-breathing conservative, he'll be a more reliable voice for Mitch McConnell as we head into the fall, certainly falling behind Brett Kavanaugh (he was actually hired to shepherd the nomination of Kavanaugh by President Trump), and will be a solid vote for the conservative agenda for as long as he's in office.  This doesn't immediately put the ACA in jeopardy, though, since one of the senators who voted for that repeal last July (Luther Strange) was replaced by Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in December and both Sens. Collins & Murkowski seem unlikely to want to re-litigate that battle so soon before the midterms, so there will be an election before there's any further actions on healthcare.  But it does mean that the Democrats can't count on a potential swing vote here, particularly if they end up in a 51-49 or 50-50 minority, where they'd need someone like McCain to stop Republican measures in the Senate.

Cindy McCain (R-AZ)

2. The GOP isn't What It Used to Be

It has to be said-in a different era, Cindy McCain would be headed to the Senate right about now.  It's not just that we used to pick widows and now we don't (that'd be a weird tradition to mourn), but it's that McCain is clearly qualified and would like the job, but was considered political poison for Ducey considering she's pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and likely would focus on issues that aren't near-and-dear to the heart of conservative movement.  For example, Ms. McCain's longtime advocacy for human trafficking victims would surely be a place where Democrats like Amy Klobuchar or Catherine Cortez Masto (also big advocates for this cause), would be ecstatic to get a Republican cosponsor on their bills.  But McCain is too moderate for the modern-day GOP, and regardless of the fact that the Republicans just ten years ago wanted her to be their First Lady, Ducey would have been quickly criticized and risked alienating his base come November had he picked McCain.

3. It's Likely This Doesn't Help Ducey

Even though he didn't pick McCain, it's likely this still doesn't help Ducey.  I anticipate that the hard-right wing of the Republican Party (people like Joe Arpaio and Kelli Ward) will quickly come out of the woodwork condemning this pick as "backing the establishment."  Kyl, while very, very conservative, is hardly a firebrand like Ward or Arpaio, and was a US Senator for 18 years, so it's easy for them to brand him a member of "the swamp."  Ducey's polling numbers aren't great (three polls this year have actually shown Democratic nominee David Garcia beating him in the general election), so he can't really afford depressed turnout.  And it's not like Martha McSally, who just beat Ward & Arpaio, is going to compensate for these numbers in a race where she also looks like she's struggling with her right flank (she's been behind all year).  Arizona was one of the tighter states that Donald Trump won in 2016, and if the president has lost ground, it's probable that Ducey/McSally could be feeling a lack of voter enthusiasm from both ends.  Kyl was a good compromise choice, but it's likely that there was no good option for Ducey here, and as a result this probably doesn't help him.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ)

4. The 2020 Contest Just Began

Kyl might not stay through 2020 (more on that in a second), but for sure it feels like he won't stand for reelection in 2020.  This means that there will be an open seat in a state that Democrats are going to be targeting in a major way.  It is probable, for example, that the Republicans could see a repeat of their 2018 primaries, with multiple candidates entering into a competitive race.  Kelli Ward, for example, could be back (quite frankly, so could Martha McSally if she loses in a close way in November), while other Tea Party conservatives like Reps. Paul Gosar or John Shadegg could muck up this race.  A hard-right conservative (which really all of these would be save McSally), could leave a big opening for the Democrats to take this seat.  People like Rep. Ruben Gallego, potential upcoming Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick or Greg Stanton, or retired astronaut Mark Kelly are all decent candidates for the Democrats, and could be interested, particularly if Kyrsten Sinema proves that the Democrats can win statewide in Arizona this November.  And while we don't know what the makeup of the Senate will be (so we don't know how important Arizona will be for the math for the Senate majority), this seat going to the Democrats could make all-the-difference to a second Trump term or first-term of a new Democratic president (considering the strong likelihood that the next presidential term replaces Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, and/or Clarence Thomas).

5. Is Kyl Going to Fill This Term?

This last bit is based on more gossip or confusion over Kyl's announcement at the moment, but based on what I've heard, it's entirely possible that Kyl is just doing this as a favor to Ducey.  As I said above, this doesn't help Ducey, but it's arguably the best-case-scenario for the governor as he faces an increasingly tough reelection prospect in November.  Kyl, who is retired and 76, may have only agreed to do this through the end of this year, meaning that he won't serve until 2020.  If Ducey were to lose, he could appoint a lackey to the position and then run for this seat himself in 2020, hoping that his fate might be different.  He could also replace Kyl with someone like McSally to try and head off a challenge from the hard right in the form of Ward or Gosar.  And while I doubt Kyl, a partisan Republican, would want to do this, it's also possible that if he resigns he won't resign with a Republican in office.  After all, Arizona state law requires that McCain be replaced by a Republican, and the same would be true for Kyl.  As a result, Garcia would need to pick a Republican, though he could pick a moderate like former Attorney General Grant Woods, or perhaps even Cindy McCain herself.