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| Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) |
In a night that saw our first incumbent governor go down (not because of a primary that happened on the 14th, but instead due to Kansas finishing its recount, where Kris Kobach heads into the general election as a great Democratic opportunity but also an intense nightmare for the party), we saw perhaps the highest-profile candidate for governor this cycle lose in one of the year's biggest upsets. Two-term Gov. Tim Pawlenty has become something of a national punching bag in recent years, what with his forgettable tenure as governor, his sad & underwhelming campaign for president in 2012, and his inability to make it on the 2012 ticket as VP despite making the shortlist, but most Republicans were ecstatic when he made a play for governor in Minnesota, assuming that he might be able to take on a weakened DFL ticket (someone far to the left of the moderate state like State Rep. Erin Murphy) and win it back before Trump made a play for the Gopher State in 2020. But Trump reared his head here, as Pawlenty had not endorsed him in 2016 and Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson made that a winning campaign issue, beating him despite Pawlenty leading in most of the polls. Republicans are now stuck with arguably their worst-case scenario in November for the governor's mansion, with Johnson, a two-time statewide loser, taking on Rep. Tim Walz (D). You can argue that Trump came close in 2016 in Minnesota, but he didn't win, and his popularity has waned in the state since...plus, Hillary Clinton was not an Army National guardsman & former teacher from Mankato so it'll be harder to paint Walz as out-of-touch with your average Minnesotan. All-in-all, we saw the end of Tim Pawlenty's career and possibly an easy set-up for a win for the Democrats, possibly even helping with coattails for the party.
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| Jahana Hayes (D-CT) |
The story of the year for Democratic primaries has been the impressive performance of women, but last night the real headline was an historic number of women-of-color who took major victories. State Rep. Ilhan Omar easily wpn in MN-5, a Minneapolis-based district and will join Rashida Tlaib this January as the first Muslim woman to serve in the US House (both of them are running in extremely safe districts). Omar has become a bit of a celebrity since she was elected to the State House just two years ago, appearing on the cover of Time Magazine and in a Maroon 5 music video, and will now have a national platform to go along with that celebrity. At only 36, she could have a long career ahead of her in the House. Meanwhile in CT-5, Jahana Hayes, a first-time candidate who was once chosen as a National Teacher of the Year Award winner by President Obama, won the Democratic Primary to succeed retiring Rep. Elizabeth Esty, becoming the first African-American woman to represent Connecticut in Congress. Both Omar and Hayes beat longtime political figures in their races (Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Mary Glassman, respectively), and are favorites to win in November (Omar heavily so, but Hayes likely as well considering the national environment though this seat is vulnerable if a Republican-leaning year). Topping this off, we have what might be the first statewide primary between two Native American women, as the nominees for lieutenant governor for Minnesota are Peggy Flanagan (D) and Donna Bergstrom (R).
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| Christine Hallquist (D-VT) |
History was also made in Vermont, where businesswoman Christine Hallquist became the first transgender-identifying person ever to be nominated for a major party for governor. Hallquist won the Vermont Democratic primary, and will take on incumbent Gov. Phil Scott. Scott has had an interesting year, seemingly impossible to beat earlier this year (likely why Hallquist, a political newcomer, didn't have political power players in the state like State Treasurer Beth Pearce or Rep. Peter Welch to compete with), but his approval ratings have taken a hit this year, toppling 18 points & pulling the governor below 50%. This might not help Hallquist (Scott's approval has gone down thanks to him signing gun control measures, and it's difficult to see a Democrat running to Scott's right on gun control without risking her own base), but it's not the "lost cause" one would have expected in January, and Hallquist has an opening. It's worth noting that with Hallquist's nomination, each letter of LGBT is now represented in the nominees for governor this year with L (Lupe Valdez of Texas), G (Jared Polis of Colorado), B (Kate Brown of Oregon) and now T (Hallquist) all represented among the nominees.
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| State Rep. Joe Radinovich (D-MN) |
For most of this cycle, the morning-after conversation about House races is whether "X-Democrat" can pick up the seat, but Minnesota is a bit different in that it's the only state where there are two clear seats where the Democrats are on the defense, and as a result the quest for 23 might get bigger if the D's lose either of these two seats (Minnesota Democrats also have two pickup opportunities, but those primaries were foregone conclusions last night). In the 8th district, arguably their hardest hold, the Democrats resisted the temptation of picking someone too-liberal for the district (Michelle Lee), instead picking a moderate young man (only 32-years-old), State Rep. Joe Radinovich, who served briefly in the State Legislature and was a crucial vote in favor of the same-sex marriage bill. Radinovich will have a tough race against County Commissioner Pete Stauber, who has enjoyed solid support from Donald Trump, but with Jeff Johnson potentially dragging down the ticket if he's too conservative, Radinovich has an opening in a district that is trending red but has an historically-blue streak running through it.
In the first district, Democrats got some lucky breaks last night. While Iraq War veteran Dan Feehan had already won the Democratic primary thanks to a decisive caucus victory (something that had alluded Radinovich), the Republican Primary was still a tough go between perennial candidate Jim Hagedorn and State Sen. Carla Nelson. Nelson was viewed as the better general election candidate, but Hagedorn had led in fundraising and name recognition, and emerged victorious. While he nearly won in 2016, Hagedorn won't be able to run an under-the-radar race in 2018 and doesn't have Donald Trump on the ballot to help him, while Feehan is a tough candidate who knows he's in a contest and will have Tim Walz (whose district this is) to help with coattails at the top of the ticket. This remains a tossup, but honestly this may end up being one of the luckiest cards Democrats pulled this cycle if Feehan pulls this out in November. It's worth noting that only once since its creation has the Republican Party not picked up a House seat (2006)-if Radinovich & Feehan both take these races, it's probable that that stat will need to be updated.
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| Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) |
Few political figures are more divergent than Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) and Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN), and yet both will face pretty big battles this fall to see if they can further their legacy and future, or whether their promising political careers die in 2018. Walker has been in this place before, of course. In 2010, he bested Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, and in 2012 he did again by an almost identical margin in a recall election that made Walker a national figure. He won again by yet another similar six-point margin in 2014, and was thought of as a frontrunner for the 2016 nomination for president, but he never caught on the way most pundits assumed he would. It seems foolish to say this in 2018 considering how often he has snatched victory from the Democrats, but his poll numbers have been middling, and he's been losing in several of them, and last night the Democrats picked their best option in State Superintendent Tony Evers, who can use education as a big pull against Walker. Counting out the Badger State governor would be foolish, and I personally won't believe Walker can actually be defeated until I see it with my own eyes, but those poll numbers indicate that he might be in a tougher spot than he ever has been, and he's never had to take on a quality Democrat in a left-leaning environment.
Ellison, as opposed to Walker, is not accustomed to tough races. After winning the Democratic Primary for his House seat in 2006, he has easily held his Minneapolis-based district, but this year he will be running statewide, trying to win an office the Democrats have kept since 1971. Ellison is far more liberal than the state itself, a state that has not elected an African-American to a non-judicial statewide office, and he will have a tough contest against State Rep. Doug Wardlow. Ellison also is facing accusations from his ex-girlfriend that he subjected her to domestic abuse, allegations Ellison denies but will surely become a major part of the conversation going forward. Republicans in the state loathe Ellison, and will likely try to link other Democrats to him in order to boost turnout. Ellison couldn't have picked a better cycle to win this seat, but it might be possible that between his politics, the likely dog-whistle campaigns that will emerge from the GOP, and these recent allegations that straight-ticket voting won't help him win even in the best of environments.
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