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| Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R-WV) |
In recent years, we've seen the GOP repeatedly see establishment politicians lose nominations, embarrassing leaders like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell (reference Roy Moore & Donald Trump for examples). Last night, though, there was a resounding victory for the Republican establishment as things more-or-less went the way they were expected to go, or at the very least there's no candidate the party is going to have to distance themselves toward immediately after the primary.
The big win for the GOP was that Don Blankenship, a man who recently served a jail sentence in connection with the deaths of 29 miners, and who has made repeated, racist attacks against McConnell's wife (Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao), lost in dubious fashion to Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Blankenship winning would have been a huge disaster for the Republicans, likely sacrificing a Trump-state seat and in the process embarrassing McConnell further by having to either denounce his nominee or side with the man who ruthlessly went after his wife (you'd think that'd be an easy choice, but McConnell was still hedging his bets earlier on Tuesday, so I suspect he'll rightfully be sleeping on the couch for a few weeks now). While Morrisey is hardly the best candidate the Republicans could have come up with (I think Evan Jenkins would have been the better general election candidate), he'll be competitive with Manchin & be someone the NRSC can happily get behind, so this is a victory for Republicans (albeit with the bar set impossibly low that you are now celebrating not nominating a convicted criminal).
It wasn't the only establishment win for the GOP, though. Two hard-right, Trump-inspired Republicans in Ohio (Melanie Leneghan & Christina Hagan) both lost to more general election-friendly candidates (Troy Balderson & Anthony Gonzalez, respectively), making the Democrats odds at two longshot bids in Ohio that much longer (in the case of Gonzalez, probably impossible). All-in-all, last night was the best night I can remember the GOP having at the ballot box in a long while.
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| State Rep. Mike Braun (R-IN) |
Perhaps the best news for the GOP came in Indiana, however. State Rep. Mike Braun, a very wealthy businessman, benefited greatly from the decades-long rivalry between Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messner, who split the vote in the GOP primary, allowing Braun to make it through. It's probable that Braun, without a long voting record for Donnelly to exploit (and unable to connect him to an unpopular GOP Congress), is the best candidate in this race, though it's worth noting he's still an unknown commodity.
In general, last night, members of the GOP Congress trying to get promotions fell flat. In addition to Messner & Rokita, we also had Evan Jenkins faltering. This could be a coincidence, but if it's part of a trend we'll find out soon enough. Next week Rep. Raul Labrador is in a tough fight against Lt. Gov. Brad Little in Idaho, and later in the year Reps. Kristi Noem, Diane Black, and Ron DeSantis are all running against local officeholders for governor. If Republican members of Congress are toxic, this could doom their chances in tough primaries. It's worth noting that no Democratic members of Congress running for promotions have stood up in a competitive primary, though Reps. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Jared Polis are both running for governor in tight races in June, so we'll also soon find out if this is a GOP-centered trend or perhaps a larger indictment against Congress.
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| Attorney General Richard Cordray (D-OH) |
The Republicans ultimately had the most on the line last night, with Blankenship and the two Ohio Republicans being a potential disaster for the party, but it's worth noting that Democrats took the election they needed to take as well. Former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray won the gubernatorial nomination with great ease over former Rep. Dennis Kucinich, a gadfly most known for his failed bids for president (and generally some iffy ties to questionable politicians/causes). Cordray now faces Attorney General Mike DeWine, a repeat of their battle for attorney general in 2010, which DeWine won by one point.
It's worth noting, of course, that things have changed a lot since 2010 (Ohio's arguably gotten redder, the environment's gotten bluer), so I'm curious to see how competitive Cordray will make this seat, as it's certain that DeWine has the upper-hand but it's not a particularly strong one. Some have made hay out of the under-performance of Democrats in the state (in terms of turnout) compared to Republicans (nearly 150,000 more people turned out for the Republican Primary than the Democratic one), but it's worth noting that DeWine/Taylor was a more contentious primary than Cordray/Kucinich, and that an isolated turnout is never a great harbinger of future support in November (though if this trend continues in other states, Democrats should start getting concerned). The Democrats arguably have their best down-ballot slate of candidates since at least 2006, so in a state where they've struggled with creating a bench, Cordray's success could matter greatly in terms of getting them a future for their party that gerrymandering might preclude...
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| Attorney General Mike DeWine (R-OH) |
...though after last night that might not have been as powerful as it once was. The Buckeye State had a ballot initiative last night that passed limiting the power of the state legislature to control the gerrymandering process. This is a big deal in Ohio, one of the more gerrymandered states on the map, both on a congressional level but possibly even more important here, in their battle for the state legislature.
The measure will require that if one party controls the governor's mansion and both houses of the legislature (like the GOP does now), they have to pass a map with a large bipartisan majority. If they don't, they have to redraw lines in four years, rather than in ten. This is hardly a paragon of gerrymandering legislation (California or Iowa have considerably higher standards for the process), but it does ensure that the voters don't have to wait a decade to punish legislators if they feel like they're being abused by the process. It also means that if Mike DeWine wins, his powers are going to be limited in comparison to Gov. John Kasich. Obviously, though, having Cordray at the table would be considerably better for the Democrats since they'd have a guarantee of not being able to pass under the four-year process without some compromise. This is a continued trend of Republican politicians continuing to do well under the systems, but not Republican politics (with DeWine overperforming at the same time as a more progressive ballot initiative), a problem Democrats have got to figure out soon if they want to capitalize on the midterms.
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| Rep. Robert Pittenger (R-NC) |
Last night, many thought longtime maverick Rep. Walter Jones would falter in North Carolina, but instead it was his colleague two-term Rep. Robert Pittenger who became the first sitting member of Congress to lose reelection in 2018. Pittenger fell to Baptist Pastor Mark Harris in NC-9, in a race that had looked tough but ultimately wasn't one that many people thought he'd lose since it was a rematch (and few thought he'd be the first member of Congress to go down, as Dan Lipinski had survived a few weeks ago).
With Pittenger's loss, there are now 60 open seats on the ballot for November, a seismic number, and this also is the only election of the night that likely decreased the Republicans' standing in the midterms. That's because the GOP has lost their power of incumbency, while the Democrats have brought a quality candidate to the table in the form of Iraq War veteran Dan McCready. McCready had $1.2 million in cash-on-hand as of last month, while Harris had just $70k. Harris should be able to make some of that up in the coming months, but McCready is in a similar profile to someone like Conor Lamb and has shown himself to be a quality candidate in a race that has proven winnable in special elections. Kyle Kondik already called the race a "Tossup" going forward, thus giving the Democrats just another nudge toward a House majority.
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