How Democrats Lose With Their Heart

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)

There are few Republicans (that aren't in the Trump administration) that your rank-and-file Democrats dislike more than Ted Cruz.  From his eternally smug expression to his soulless campaign platform to the way that he doesn't seem to have even a semblance of a backbone (I'll tell you this-if some man ever insults both my father and my spouse, I can assure you that I won't be doing robocalls for his presidential campaign), it's hard to like Cruz if you even remotely have a "D" behind your name.  And thanks to his presidential campaign, Cruz is actually nationally known.  I don't know if they poll national name ID for every senator, but after John McCain, Mitch McConnell, and maybe Marco Rubio, you could make a sincere argument that Cruz is the most well-known Republican currently in the Senate.  As a result, it's easy to see why Democrats might hold out hope that he will suffer a massive defeat this November (it's the stuff of many a dream for me as well).

And Texas Democrats should be proud that they found a candidate that isn't, well, a guy with a generic name like Michael Smith or Jeff Green (this is oftentimes how this ends up working in ruby-red states).  Rep. Beto O'Rourke is the most serious candidate to run for the Senate in the Lone Star State since at least Ron Kirk in 2002, if not Bob Krueger in 1993.  In a cycle where miracles seem to be commonplace for Democrats (Doug Jones, Conor Lamb, etc), having a decent candidate is a great idea, and bravo to all involved for making it happen.

But now, it's time to stop giving Beto O'Rourke your money.  Because like it or not, he's not going to win.

This stings, and I'm sure a thousand Democrats just raised their finger in protest (okay, not a thousand, maybe a dozen-how many of you are going to read this?), but in the battle for the Senate, the Texas race is a side attraction, something that's fun to fantasize about but will never actually happen.  To put it into a metaphor I'm sure everyone can relate to, Texas is the hot, straight guy I inevitably develop a crush on every couple of years and dream I could convert, but in reality he's just going to end up dating some girl whom I will silently mumble about to myself, while I should have been pursuing the cute, slightly overweight but totally available gay guy in the corner wearing the giant "NEVADA" sweatshirt, that would totally flip for me if given the chance (that was belabored, but I found it funny, so whatever).

The point is, Democrats will need a miracle, an absolute miracle, to win the Texas Senate race, and Ted Cruz is neither Roy Moore nor Rick Saccone.  He's not going to be outed as a creepy pervert and he's not a poor campaigner.  He's a good enough campaigner, in fact, that he won six years ago in the state and surely will again even in this environment.  We saw that in the primaries-Ted Cruz did considerably better than Beto O'Rourke, even with huge swells in Democratic turnout across the state; Democrats at their best couldn't beat Republicans here even while the GOP seemed to be underperforming.  Other than fundraising, O'Rourke is not posting impressive enough numbers to show that he could be in for an upset, and as has already been pointed out multiple times this election cycle, fundraising does not equal a victory.

This phenomena is not limited to O'Rourke.  Last year, Jon Ossoff in Georgia's 6th congressional district raised over $23 million (which would be a lot even for a Senate race), despite the fact that it was always going to be an uphill climb to take that seat (which we ultimately lost).  Randy Bryce, who is fighting against Paul Ryan later this year, regularly posts million-dollar quarters against the Speaker, despite having no indication he will actually win.  This money might sound impressive, and you'd be right to argue "you can't win if you can't compete," but honestly there's a point where it feels like we're wasting money just to buy a lottery ticket.

Because the reality is that that money would be better spent going to races that the Democrats could actually take this November.  Paul Ryan and Ted Cruz might not be losing their seats this November, but they can be relegated to the minority if you give to candidates in races that will actually be consequential in determining the majority.  The Senate will likely be decided by whether Democrats can win 7 of the following 8 races: Arizona, Nevada, Missouri, Florida, North Dakota, Indiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia.  If you want to see Ted Cruz suffer a terrible defeat, donate to one of the D's in these states-your money will go further (and also weaken the likes of Mitch McConnell, Tom Cotton, and Donald Trump's hold on the judiciary).  If you want to best Paul Ryan, there are dozens of more promising challengers ranging from Anthony Brindisi in New York to Kim Schrier in Washington to a trio of Democrats running in TX-7, TX-23, and TX-32 that will pack a much bigger punch against Ryan & the Republican agenda than giving to Randy Bryce.  It's important to remember to not just vote & campaign, but also to donate with your heart.  It's going to feel pretty lousy in November if Ted Cruz & Paul Ryan win "by low double-digits" while we watch an underfunded Phil Bredesen or Abby Finkenauer cost us control of a house of Congress.