5 Thoughts on Last Night's Primaries

Well, we officially did it gang-we made it long enough into Trump's tenure to see the kickoff of the Midterms!  Last night in Texas, the Midterms had their kickoff with the first primaries of the year, and while many of the races will end up with a sequel (Texas requires you to get 50% of the vote, which means a lot of the most competitive races will end up with a runoff that will be held in May), we're starting in on the home stretch.  Still, though, there's a lot to parse through and it's Wednesday during the elections, so it's time for our "Five Thoughts On Last Night's Primaries" Wednesday articles to begin.  Without further adieu...

Laura Moser (D-TX)

1. The Biggest Loser of the Night: The DCCC

Thanks to the runoff law, we didn't see a lot of outright losers last night (we'll end up with most of those happening in May), but it has to be said that the DCCC clearly had mud on its face after Tuesday.  The campaign arm of the House Democrats took an unusual move a few weeks ago when they decided to publicly deride Laura Moser, a candidate for the 7th Congressional District, an historically red seat that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, making some Democrats think it could be a solid pickup opportunity for the Democrats.  Moser, however, comes with a king's ransom of controversial quotes and hard-left political beliefs, most notably where she publicly derides her home city of Paris, TX, and praises living in DC.  This could be anathema to general election voters & easy picking for the GOP to exploit in a general election, and the DCCC decided to try and sink her campaign.  This obviously backfired, as Moser did well enough to advance to the primary against Lizzie Pannill Fletcher.

It has to be said that the DCCC, while perhaps in the right (I actually think targeting poor candidates in the primaries is a pretty solid tactic if it means us ultimately winning in the general, but I'm clearly in the minority on that one), couldn't have handled this worse.  Moser wore their dismissal as a badge-of-honor, and in an era of Bernie Bros, the hard-left (and the Pod Saves America guys, perhaps worried about their own cheeky comments impaling future runs for Congress in their home states), went in for Moser, who up until that point was just one of the many in the primary.  I'd argue that if they'd just shut up, Moser might not have gotten a boost and this wouldn't have been a problem.  Now the DCCC will either have to back Pannill Fletcher fully (potentially incurring further backlash), or risk Texas choosing someone whom the DCCC have publicly derided and is basically DOA when it comes to November.

It's also worth noting that with Moser winning, this should signal trouble to the DCCC about getting involved in other primaries, something they might really want to do in a more important state: California.  There, thanks to the top-two primary system, the Democrats run the real risk of letting vulnerable seats go by-the-wayside if the Republicans advance two candidates in a district that Hillary Clinton won (it happened in 2012 in CA-31).  In CA-39, CA-48, CA-49, and CA-50, all seats with some level of competition depending on who makes it to the general, both sides have at least two candidates, leaving the possibility that one party doesn't have any candidates in the general election.  The DCCC has already started to push certain candidates in these races out of the field (like Christina Prejean), but after Moser clobbered them last night, their sway might not be as strong as initially hoped for, which could result in them losing very winnable races in California.

Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)

2. Beto O'Rourke Wins...But Not Very Impressively

It of course needs to be said that Democrats came out, at least on a curve for Texas, in extraordinary numbers last night.  Over 1 million people voted in last night's statewide contests for Governor & Senator on the left, the first time that's happened in 2002, and the Democrats doubled their vote totals in 2010 and 2014.  Democratic enthusiasm was very real in the Lone Star State, with Rep. Beto O'Rourke winning the Democratic Primary easily, and Andrew White & Lupe Valdez advancing to the general election in the gubernatorial side.

But that being said, this still doesn't look promising for O'Rourke.  I will dismiss for the moment that he still missed 1/3 of the vote despite clearly being the frontrunner for the Democrats (his other opponents were basically non-entities), and look more at the fact that Texas Republicans, despite arguably having less reason to get out (their sides with Greg Abbott & Ted Cruz were basically set) still clobbered the Democrats in terms of overall vote totals (500,000 more even with the record Democratic turnout), and stronger numbers than most midterm primaries in the past on their side as well.  This doesn't necessarily mean anything (primary turnout isn't always a strong indicator of general election enthusiasm), but it does call-into-question whether or not O'Rourke (or any Democrat) can really take on an incumbent senator in Texas without a massive scandal to aid them.  O'Rourke's fundraising prowess aside, this is still Texas and I left this more skeptical about the left's ability to pull off the miracle here than I started.

County Judge Veronica Escobar (D-TX)

3. Emily's List Had a Great Night

This is all beginning to sound like a terrible night for the Democrats, but at least one wing of the party had a fantastic start to their season: Emily's List.  The organization dedicated to backing pro-choice, female Democrats for public office had made five endorsements in House races in Texas, and all five of the women they backed either won their primaries outright last night or advanced to the runoff.

This included Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, a coup for the DCCC in a night with a lot of losses, since Emily's List can back Pannill Fletcher without too much worry from it rubbing off on the DCCC.  It also includes Gina Ortiz Jones, who could become the first Filipina-American woman to ever serve in Congress were she to win the very competitive TX-23 (one of the few swing districts where the Democratic vote total actually exceeded the Republicans).  And of course their biggest win was getting State Sen. Sylvia Garcia and County Judge Veronica Escobar through without a runoff in TX-29 and TX-16, respectively.  Garcia & Escobar are running in safely blue seats where Democrats are retiring from the House, meaning that they are near-certain to be joining Congress in January, and will become the first Latina women to represent Texas in Congress (yeah, I also think it's ridiculous that it took this long).  Considering how much of a play Emily's List has made into what some have dubbed the "Year of the Woman" because of the spike in female candidates for public office, this was a great start to their year, and should aid in their fundraising.

Kathleen Wall (R-TX)

4. Self-Funders Flop in Texas

On the opposite end of the spectrum, it was clear that no one on either side of the aisle was having the self-funders.  Candidates who largely bankrolled their campaigns watched as their congressional dreams went up in smoke, and proved that ability to raise money is not always correlative to actually winning an election.  This was proven specifically in Texas-29, where Tahir Javed failed to even advance to a runoff against Sylvia Garcia, despite donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to his own campaign.  This wasn't a partisan issue, though, as Kathleen Wall spent $2.7 million of her own money (what?!?) to try and win Texas's 2nd GOP congressional district, but couldn't even manage to make it to a runoff (where the cutoff to make the runoff was just 27% of the vote).

This could pose an interesting dilemma for upcoming self-funders like Dave Trone in Maryland or, especially, JB Pritzker in Illinois (who has his primary in two weeks).  If this is a turnoff across-the-board (and not just a Texas thing), we could be in for some interesting races as Pritzker has largely led his primary thanks in no small part to his nearly $1 million-a-day campaign to be governor of Illinois.

Jay Gonzales (D-TX)

5. That Said, Money Still Matters

While fundraising leaders and self-funders took a bath last night (we haven't even mentioned Ed Meier's unceremonious flop in TX-32, but it should be noted), money still mattered, particularly in the little-noticed Bexar County District Attorney's race (Bexar County is basically San Antonio, for the uninitiated).  In this district, incumbent Democrat Nico LaHood gained some national notoriety for comments that were deemed anti-Islamic and for supporting the debunked claim that vaccines cause autism.  LaHood was challenged by a virtual unknown named Jay Gonzales who ran to his left (they apparently used to be business associates), and probably wouldn't have made it through the contest had it not attracted the attention of billionaire liberal George Soros, who reportedly sank $1 million into the race on Gonzales's behalf.  While the race now advances to the general, it's probable that this is tantamount to electing Gonzales, and as a result is a big win for Soros as well.  It also continues a trend of the very wealthy investing (overwhelmingly so) in small races to try and get their preferred candidate through the door, potentially setting them up for bigger things down the road.