Firsts for Women in 2018?

Front: Sens. Carol Moseley-Braun, & Dianne Feinstein
Back: Sens. Patty Murray, Barbara Mikulski, & Barbara Boxer

In 1991, Anita Hill testified in front of a Senate Judiciary panel about sexual harassment she had endured under Clarence Thomas, with his Supreme Court nomination hanging in the balance over whether or not the panel would believe that Hill's testimony had discredited him to the point where he was an unacceptable nominee to one of our nation's highest offices.  Hill was hammered by senators, particularly attacked by Sens. Orrin Hatch and Arlen Specter, but one thing was apparent to millions of women in the United States-that Hill was being questioned by a panel filled with men.  In 1991, 98% of the senators in Congress's Upper House were men, with the only two female senators at the time (Barbara Mikulski and Nancy Kassebaum) not sitting on the Senate Judiciary Committee.  One of the women that saw the hearings was a young state senator by the name of Patty Murray.  Murray would later describe watching the incident, "It was so stark, watching these men grill this woman in their big chairs and looking down at her.  And I just said, I am going to run for the US Senate.  Because they need somebody there who is going to say what I would say if I was there," implying that she would have questioned Thomas, not Hill, with the fervor many senators were exhibiting in the hearings.

Murray would go on the following year to become the first woman ever elected to the US Senate from the state of Washington.  In fact, for the first time in American history, four freshman senators (Murray, Dianne Feinstein, Barbara Boxer, and Carol Moseley-Braun) were elected to the US Senate that year, and two of them (Feinstein and Moseley-Braun) were seated on the Senate Judiciary Committee.  In fact, so great was the impact of 1992 that there has never been a Senate Judiciary Committee without a woman on it since.  While many women (chiefly Sen. Mikulski) criticized the moniker "Year of the Woman" as being insulting (women are not a fad), it cannot be denied that the Hill testimonies had an enormous impact on the movement to have more women serve at the highest levels of government.

Which brings us to today.  The Time Magazine Person of the Year this year was "The Silence Breakers," people (but disproportionately women) who stood forward in telling their stories of sexual harassment and assault.  Powerful men such as Al Franken, John Conyers, Harvey Weinstein, Kevin Spacey, Bill O'Reilly, and dozens more have finally been taken to task for decades of inappropriate sexual behavior, and on Tuesday (god-willing) we'll see another go down in the form of Roy Moore (this is me trying "The Secret").  On-top of this, we have a president who is a reminder of what happens when you ignore the voices of women, in the same way that Clarence Thomas served as a reminder to women that they need to have their voices heard.  This has resulted in an enormous outpouring of women running for public office.  Organizations like She Should Run and Emily's List have heard from thousands upon thousands of women making the plunge into running for public office or pursuing higher office.  Already in 2017, we've seen female politicians like Vi Lyles, Danica Roem, and Ashley Bennett make national headlines for besting male politicians (in the case of the latter two, famously bigoted politicians), and I thought it would be interesting to look at some of the firsts that could be achieved in 2018 by examining which states, like Washington in 1992, not only had no women representing women in the Senate, but also had never had a woman represent them in the Senate.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)

States Without Female Senators

Currently, there are 21 states that have never elected a female senator, as well as two more (Alabama & Georgia) that have never elected a woman (the two women who have represented those states, Dixie Graves and Rebecca Felton, were appointed to those seats).  That's nearly half the country, which is pretty pathetic if you really think about it considering we're not talking about the current Senate (which has 21 female senators, though my gut says that we'll have 22 relatively quickly thanks to Minnesota), but all of American history.

It's worth noting that only three seats are currently scheduled to be open in 2018 (Franken's seat in Minnesota, as well as seats in Arizona and Tennessee).  While Minnesota has elected a female senator previously, neither of the other two states have, and right now both are poised to have female senators, albeit ones of completely different ilks.  In Arizona, the three leading candidates for both the GOP (Kelli Ward, Martha McSally) and the Democrats (Kyrsten Sinema) are women, while the Republican nominee in Tennessee (Marsha Blackburn) is a woman whereas the likely Democratic nominee (Phil Bredesen) isn't.  In both these states, one could argue that the presumed outcome will be that they will elect a female senator.  In order for more states to be on this list, you'd have to assume a challenger broke through.  The best shot of this happening, however, would be in states where they have already had female senators (Nevada's Jacky Rosen being the only first-tier challenger of either party that is also a woman, and the Silver State has elected a female senator before).  Perhaps more impressive is that women could well hit 25 senators in 2018, provided no incumbent woman loses reelection (Sens. Baldwin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp all have tough reelections ahead of them), and 75% of MN/AZ/NV/TN go to the female candidate (as a Democrat, I must admit I'm hoping for the first three if we can only have a trio).  This would be the first time in American history that the Senate will have a quarter of its members be women.

State Auditor Rebecca Otto (D-MN)

States Without Female Governors

This is perhaps the more impressive opportunity for growth in the United States.  22 states have never had a female governor, and currently only six women serve as governor of their state (with two, Susana Martinez of New Mexico and Mary Fallin of Oklahoma, both term-limited in 2018).  This is almost certain to change in 2018, almost exclusively thanks to Democratic women.  States that have never had a female governor that have a top-tier Democratic challenger (either presumed to be the nominee or very-much-in-the-hunt for the nomination) include: Colorado (Lt. Gov. Donna Lyman, State Treas. Cara Kennedy), Florida (Rep. Gwen Graham), Georgia (State Reps. Stacey Abrams & Stacey Evans), Maine (AG Janet Mills), Minnesota (State Auditor Rebecca Otto, potentially AG Lori Swanson), and Wisconsin (State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout).  There are two states that have top Republican women in states-that-have-never-had-female-governors: South Dakota (Rep. Kristi Noem) and Tennessee (Rep. Diane Black).  Finally, there are also major Democratic female candidates in states that have had female Democratic governors in the past but either don't currently or not represented by Democrats currently: Connecticut (potentially SoS Susan Bysiewicz), Hawaii (Rep. Colleen Hanabusa), Michigan (State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer), New Mexico (Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham), and Ohio (Rep. Betty Sutton, State Rep. Connie Pillich, Mayor Nan Whaley).

This could have a pronounced impact on the future of the country, as state governments have taken a much more active approach than the federal government in passing major legislation in recent years.  It could also mean that Democratic women could oversee the redistricting process in places like Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan, where Republicans have a solid advantage in terms of gerrymandering.  Finally, as historically governors have become presidents (four of the past seven presidents have been governors), one of these women could end up moving onto the highest of glass ceilings: the White House.

State Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-IA)

States Without Female House Members

While the list of women running for the House is too daunting to list all of them, I think it's at least worth looking to see if any state will finally get over the most eye-rolling of situations-that they've never even elected a woman to the House of Representatives.  Most-recently Delaware got themselves off of this list with the election of Lisa Blunt Rochester in 2016, so we are now left with five states that have never elected a woman (Alaska, Iowa, Mississippi, North Dakota, Vermont), and an additional sixth (Louisiana) where a woman has only ever succeeded her husband into the House.

With the exception of Mississippi (which, it should be noted, is the only state in the union to never have elected a woman to the House, Senate, or as governor), Louisiana, and Iowa, the other three states are relatively one-sided At-Large districts, so it would take a retirement to probably end their streak.  Reps. Don Young (AK) and Peter Welch (VT) seem intent on staying in their seats, so your best bet would be if Rep. Kevin Cramer challenged Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, but I'm starting to wonder if he'll take a pass considering the national Republicans general anathema to his potential candidacy.  Mississippi and Louisiana are also relatively gerrymandered to the point where every congressional district is one-sided, and so far there are no retirements to speak of, so if there's a state getting off of this list in 2018, it'll be Iowa, and it'll be with a very young woman: State Rep. Abby Finkenauer.  The 28-year-old state legislator is running in the first district against Rep. Rod Blum, and is one of the biggest question marks hanging over 2018.  Historically the first district has been a pretty Democratic stronghold, with every Democrat from 2000-2012 winning it, oftentimes by double-digits, but in 2016 it swung hard to Donald Trump, giving him a 4-point margin and ensuring that Blum won reelection despite being counted out for most of the cycle.  If this is a sign of a trend, Blum should be safe in 2018, but a Democratic wave and potentially Obama/Trump voters (they exist, and no more so than here) swinging back to the left could mean that the Hawkeye State could finally elect a woman to the House.