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| Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) |
1. Franken Had to Go
It was apparent probably about a week ago that Franken wasn't going to survive this. Initially, while I jumped pretty quickly on the resignation bandwagon (I'd been to this dog-and-pony-show before, I knew what was about to happen), I wasn't quite sure Franken would be quitting the race. His 2020 presidential ambitions had definitely disappeared, and after a while it was clear he wasn't going to run for reelection, but actually resigning felt like a question mark. After all, senators of both parties had survived scandal to at least complete their term (Roland Burris and Bob Menendez come to mind, even Minnesota's own David Durenberger), but when the John Conyers stories started to pour out, it was clear that the Democrats couldn't keep Conyers around, and that would institute a zero-tolerance policy. Particularly considering comments from members of the Congressional Black Caucus, who pointed out (correctly) that Conyers, a prominent African-American politician and a storied member of the Civil Rights movement, was being pushed harder than Franken, it made sense that they would go out as a set pair. Both resigning also meant that the Democrats (minus Ruben Kihuen, who is going to face immense pressure to resign, though Pelosi may be trying to keep him around until reconciliation is final to see if he can help kill the tax bill), will head into 2018 as the party of personal responsibility, with a zero-tolerance attitude to sexual harassment and assault. Considering Time Magazine just named the "Silence Breakers" (women like Ashley Judd and Taylor Swift who stood tall against sexual misconduct in the workplace) as the "Person of the Year," this could well be a watershed election similar to 1992 where women, incensed by sexual discrimination in Washington (in 1992 it was over Anita Hill, in 2018 likely over Donald Trump & Roy Moore), head to the polls to vote for their own. Having Franken (or Conyers) as part of your flock when you're centering your campaign around such a message wouldn't work.
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| Judge Roy Moore (R-AL) |
2. Al Franken Falls So That Doug Jones Can Live
Setting aside the likelihood that some of these senators today simply did what they thought was right (those who spoke include women like Claire McCaskill and Kirsten Gilibrand, who have made feminism and a fight against sexual misconduct/assault a central theme of their entire careers), it is impossible to overlook the timing of this announcement. Democrats in Washington are having deja vu with the Alabama Senate race, where it appeared for a while that US Attorney Doug Jones may pull off an upset over Justice Roy Moore (who is accused of sexual assault by multiple women), but Moore has rebounded in the polls. This echoes the initial reactions to the Access Hollywood tapes from last year's election, where it seemed certain that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency as a result of Donald Trump bragging about sexual assault on camera, but instead lost in a major political upset. Democrats, perhaps in trying to connect a Hail Mary pass, wanted to counter the RNC jumping back into the race on Moore's behalf (and match people Mitch McConnell and Orrin Hatch re-endorsing Moore despite saying they believe the women) with a message that this isn't tolerated by their party. It's a stark message, one that could reverberate in a big way in 2018 if Moore is elected to the Senate (where every Republican running will be asked about him constantly), and could create a change in the narrative in the country. It's impossible after Conyers & Franken for Republicans to say "both sides are the same" when they aren't, and while it's a stretch to say that Franken's resignation could swing the Alabama Senate race, it's a very bad color for McConnell and going to frame him as a sympathizer for those who commit sexual assault and pedophilia while Schumer and Pelosi stand against those who commit such acts in their party. If Doug Jones wins next week, it's hard not to say that the loss of Franken was worth the cost.
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| Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) |
3. The Real Winner Today? Amy Klobuchar
Perhaps the point that no one is making (that I've read) is that Amy Klobuchar needed Franken to resign more than anyone. Klobuchar was in a tough place due to Franken's position in her home state. She's seen as a probable candidate for president in 2020, but also has to win reelection in 2018 in a state where Franken still enjoys immense passion from a core constituency of voters whom she'd need to win reelection. It seemed impossible for her to be the nominee in 2020 if she didn't stand against Franken (like potential competitors Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Elizabeth Warren all did today), but bad-mouthing Franken opened her up to weakened support from the DFL in 2018 to hold her seat. With Franken out of the race, she'll have a presumably non-controversial fellow senator to deal with, and won't have to make a public statement calling for Franken to resign. By the time 2018, and certainly 2020, rolls around, Franken will be nothing but a historical footnote. Had he still been in office when she conducted these races, he would have been a major anchor for her to deal with, but now she won't have that problem.
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| Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D-MN) |
4. Whom Will Dayton Appoint?
Provided Franken resigns, the attention will shift from him to Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton. Dayton, who is not running for reelection next year and is, at age 70, likely in the last term of his political career, doesn't have to worry about future political endeavors or the costs of this decision since he doesn't face the pressure of wanting to run for president or another statewide office that other governors face in this situation. Therefore, he could go in several directions with his choice to fill Franken's seat.
He could go the route of a placeholder. Minnesota has a pretty solid bench both of up-and-comers, as well as party statesman, and so going with a celebrity choice like former Vice President Walter Mondale or former Minnesota Supreme Court Justice (and Vikings legend) Alan Page wouldn't be out-of-the-question. Dayton could also pick Lt. Gov. Tina Smith to hold the seat. Smith is one of the few Democrats in the state not running for governor (only slightly tongue-in-cheek there), and while at 59 she would be able to run for another term, it's just as probable that she'd stay in the seat until an elected official would win it in 2018. Smith's ambitions seem a bit perplexing (she's never been more active on the political scene, yet keeps insisting she's nearly done with her political career), so it's hard to tell if she'd want to run again, but I think if Dayton could pick pretty much anyone, it'd be her.
Dayton could also try to help the DFL avoid a primary by picking someone who would want to run for a full-term. Smith could be that person if she wanted, but Attorney General Lori Swanson would also be in the cards, as could State Auditor Rebecca Otto or State House Minority Leader Melissa Hortman. Social media seems to be clamoring for DNC Vice Chair and Rep. Keith Ellison, but I doubt that will happen for a couple of reasons. One, it's probable that if Dayton's going to pick someone who will want to run for the full-term, he'll pick a woman (considering the reason for the vacancy, this seems like logical and appropriate thinking), and two, it's not entirely clear that Ellison, who is far more liberal than the state as a whole, could win statewide in Minnesota. The state went more Republican than the nation for the first time since 1952 in last year's presidential election, and while Hillary Clinton won it, it was nearly in the same boat as its neighbor Wisconsin. Someone like Smith, Otto, or Swanson who have a proven track record of having won statewide seem like a better bet.
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| Attorney General Lori Swanson (D-MN) |
5. What Does This Mean for 2018?
What this means for 2018 is that the Democrats will have another Senate seat to defend, and Minnesota will have two Senate seats and a Governor's mansion that both parties will be taking a gander toward winning. The DFL currently has a major list of contenders for governor (in addition to Otto, Rep. Tim Walz, Mayor Chris Coleman, State Rep. Erin Murphy, and State Rep. Tina Liebling are all running...with Swanson and State Sen. Minority Leader Tom Bakk considering the race). A Senate contest would surely attract some of these names, though it's not clear how many. Swanson, in particular, seems the likeliest bet to make a play for the seat since she hasn't officially announced for governor, unless Dayton appoint someone who wants to run for a the remainder of Franken's term. New names could also come into play, particularly Ellison if he sees this as a potential opportunity to get a promotion and a more prominent perch on the national stage.
So far Republicans have struggled to get major names into the governor's race, but a Senate contest could be too enticing to resist. While a majority of the House delegation shot the prospect down, Reps. Jason Lewis and Tom Emmer were more wait-and-see when it came to the Republican race, and State House Speaker Kurt Daudt would also be a top recruit. There is also the possibility that former Governor Tim Pawlenty (whom it was rumored was interested in returning to his old office) might make a play back onto the national stage. And it has to be said that Minnesota's most notorious Republican, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, is going to at least make rumblings about pursuing the seat, and as arguably the most prominent women in the MN GOP, she would have a distinctive profile that could play well in a primary (you just know Steve Bannon is salivating at the prospect).
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| Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-NV) |
6. What Happens When the Democrats' Principles Cost a Seat?
This last question is a bit of a devil's advocate situation, but it's worth noting that with Conyers, Franken and Kihuen, the Democrats aren't really giving up anything. Short of nominating someone unelectable or scandal-prone, the Democrats are going to be favorites in 2018 for Franken's seat (certainly Smith or Swanson could hold the seat, largely by mimicking the success of Klobuchar). John Conyers' seat is safely Democratic, and it's probable that Ruben Kihuen's seat will stay blue in 2018. As a result, the principled stand of the Democrats isn't quite at the point similar to the ones faced by Republicans with Trump or Moore (where concession, thanks to election law, meant/means giving up a seat).
But what happens if the next man accused is a red-state/district Democrat who is the only shot the Democrats have to hold that seat? Part of me wonders if the Democratic senators did thorough background checks on the likes of Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, and Joe Donnelly prior to all coming out en masse against Franken. The Democrats' opportunity to win the majority in the Senate, if they can win in Alabama, is largely based on pulling an inside straight of holding all of their seats and taking AZ/NV. A Democratic senator from a state where no one else can win would ensure Mitch McConnell stays as majority leader for two more years. Does this set up a dangerous precedent for when the Democrats won't have a net zero result from the resignation? Not saying that this isn't the right decision (it is), but it's something to ponder, particularly since the Republicans aren't playing by the same set of rules.
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