This is an historic moment that, quite frankly, I didn't think could happen. It never occurred to me that Roy Moore might (stress on might) actually lose in 2017, thus giving Democrats a chance at the elusive third seat, but in light of the multiple women who have come forward describing Moore's predatory behavior in his thirties toward teenage girls, there's no denying this is a possibility. Admittedly, the Democrats still have steep odds-they'd have to hold seven of the below ten seats (and it's worth noting that there are competitive races not on this list), as well as pick up two states in addition to Alabama. But the math isn't "impossible" anymore like I would have claimed it was nearly six months ago. The Democrats needed a miracle, and Doug Jones winning would qualify as that. Without further adieu, here's your Top 10 list (most likely to switch parties at #1):
Honorable Mention: I'm still waiting to see if Gov. Phil Bredesen A) will run for the Senate in Tennessee and B) if he can cash in on his once immense popularity in a way that Evan Bayh, Russ Feingold, and Ted Strickland couldn't (but Heidi Heitkamp in 2012, for the record, could). Still, in light of Alabama it's not without question that Bredesen could be a player if he runs a smart campaign and Marsha Blackburn makes some fouls. I feel like Bob Casey and Debbie Stabenow have both solidified their standings a bit since our last write-up, but Tammy Baldwin only makes it onto the Honorable Mentions because of Roy Moore-her race still feels the most vulnerable of the three "states Hillary needed." Finally, the amount of ultra red state legislative districts that have swung hard to the Democrats makes me curious if perhaps Rep. Beto O'Rourke might be in a better position than we'd assume in Texas than a Democrat should be against a Republican (if admittedly unlikable) incumbent.
 |
| Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) |
I really can't believe how far Montana has fallen in my estimation, but you hardly hear a wink out of this race. Perhaps I'm underestimating State Auditor Matt Rosendale, but after the Republicans couldn't get the candidates they actually wanted (he was at best third choice, perhaps even 4th or 5th), and Tester's faced far tougher opponents in the past, so I'm thinking that the Democrats may end up having lucked out here. The NRSC could be cash-strapped, particularly if they can't pass tax reform (many donors have stated they're going to withhold donations if it isn't passed, and I kind of wonder if there's credence to that claim after they also couldn't reform healthcare), and there's a lot fresher or easier targets than Tester on the table. If Rosendale doesn't make a stronger claim here this might become Florida Senate 2012-a race that was competitive on-paper, but never actually materialized and a theoretically vulnerable incumbent does just fine. (Previous Ranking: 6)
 |
| State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R-OH) |
Florida is arguably the hardest race on this list to get a read on, primarily because it's the only race where the competitiveness of the contest hinges on one man getting in (Tennessee, to a lesser degree, but Bredesen doesn't take it from Safe to Tossup, just Safe to Lean). Ohio, though, is the state where all of the dynamics are out there, but I can't figure out what is most important. On the one hand you have Sen. Sherrod Brown in an advantageous environment, an incumbent who has won statewide twice (including against his likely 2018 opponent), who will have an enormous amount of cash at his disposal, and is undeniably the better campaigner in this race. On the other hand, however, is Donald Trump, who proved in 2016 that the Buckeye State may be going harder right than its bellwether state has historically allowed. If that's the case, it might not matter that Brown is a better campaigner than State Treasurer Josh Mandel-he could fall in the same way that Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, and Gordon Smith have done before him. But I'm not counting him out yet, and I think that Brown may be able to take it even if Ohio has turned into Missouri circa 2012. (Previous Ranking: 9)
 |
| Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) |
The North Dakota Senate race remains a bit of a question mark in part because Rep. Kevin Cramer has not yet decided whether he's going to run for the Senate or for reelection. While Cramer would surely become the frontrunner were he to take a jump into the race against first-term Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, his past comments (about women, in particular) could be a gold mine for Heitkamp in terms of campaign research, and she remains very popular with North Dakota voters. If he doesn't run, it seems probable that Heitkamp will face State Sen. Tom Campbell, but again-Heitkamp is a very good fit for the seat, and perhaps better than any other Democrat has found a sweet spot between the letter behind her name and the voters in her state (she has video of Trump praising her, after all), and the Peace Garden State has a long history of reelecting Democrats to Congress while they send Republicans to the White House-might Heitkamp simply make it on likability/personal popularity in one of the few states that such attributes continue to hold water? (Previous Ranking: 4)
 |
| Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) |
Rick Scott. Those are the only two words that matter in the Florida Senate race right now-will incumbent Gov. Rick Scott run for the seat? Were he to run, this would be an instant tossup, probably moving ahead of a few of these seats, quite frankly, as Scott is a famously ruthless campaigner with near unlimited personal cash and has dispatched two very formidable challengers. Admittedly, Sen. Bill Nelson is an institution in the race as well, but in his mid-70's one wonders if Nelson is running more so just to deter Scott from getting into the race rather than actually wanting to stick around for another term (the Democratic bench in the state is anemic, and there's always the risk Charlie Crist decides to run for yet another failed statewide contest). But that being said, Scott still hasn't announced yet, and I'm curious to see what the impact of thousands of displaced Puerto Rican voters will do to this contest and to the governor's race. At this point, Scott not running arguably takes this race off the list, as Nelson has a major head start over whichever member of the House delegation would try and dispatch him (the last two who attempted it failed miserably). Until Scott enters the race, I'm keeping this right in the middle. (Previous Ranking: 7)
 |
| Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) |
Sen. Joe Manchin is the last of his kind. West Virginia was one of the most Democratic states in the country a decade ago, at least statewide, but at this point it's hard to imagine them ever recovering in the Mountain State, and Manchin, conservative as he may be, is likely to be the most progressive senator from West Virginia for the next couple of decades. The strong prevalence in recent years for straight-ticket voting could surely have an impact on Joe Manchin, and he'll be called a "Hillary Liberal" in this race quite frequently, but part of me wonders if he's such an established brand it won't matter. It'll be difficult to tar Manchin as a Nancy Pelosi Democrat since his brand-game is strong in West Virginia, and his close friendship with Gov. Jim Justice (and his cosiness with President Trump) could be valuable assets as long as the Senate contest doesn't become too nationalized. All-in-all, it's hard to imagine Manchin being in a better position at this point, and while that's not high praise, it might well be enough to get him another term. (Previous Ranking: 5)
 |
| State Sen. Kelli Ward (R-AZ) |
Rep. Krysten Sinema suffered a potential blow when Sen. Jeff Flake retired, rather than going off on what was going to be a near-certain loss in either the primary or the general thanks to his immense unpopularity. She will now face an open seat election, but the Republicans could still shoot themselves in the foot. I'd argue that if Rep. Martha McSally wins the primary, this race moves toward about 10th place on this list, as she's the better campaigner of the two and fits Arizona's (increasingly) light red tint. However, State Sen. Kelli Ward is trying to portray McSally as "Jeff Flake: The Sequel," and polls show this could take. Arizona is a state where the R behind your name matters a lot, so Ward could win even if she runs from the far right (and it's worth noting she's far better on the stump than her infamous John McCain comment would suggest), but I'd say that Sinema becomes the favorite if she makes it through, particularly if Democratic turnout is as strong in 2018 as it was in 2017. Still, I want to see how well McSally does in the primary before I move this to the Top 3 (which I would have done had Flake still been a candidate). (Previous Ranking: 7)
 |
| US Attorney Doug Jones (D-AL) |
The polls probably make this the #2 race on this list considering how close we are to the actual election, but I can't quite get there, and honestly I'm not sure I'll be there until there's a checkmark next to Doug Jones's name. While Alabama is not even close to the longest current losing streak for a state with Senate Democrats, it is one of the few states where Roy Moore would still be able to win an election even with the very concrete allegations against him right now (it's quite possible in this highly polarized environment that someone with Moore's beliefs could win a primary in a place like Ohio or Missouri, but even in light red states Jones would be a surefire winner in the face of Moore's scandals). That being said, the polls have clearly headed in Jones's favor, and Democrats in the state are going to be coming out in droves, while Republican turnout will surely be dampened. Moore could win (pretty much anyone with an R behind their name could win in Alabama), surely, but Jones has the momentum and could provide the Democrats with an extraordinary moment in a few short weeks. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
 |
| Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) |
Seats #2 and 3, in my opinion, pose arguably the hardest challenge of the Democratic path to the Senate. Sometimes these rankings are a bit hard to suss out or feel a tiny bit arbitrary (it's not an exact science). It feels weird in a cycle this heavily against the Democrats for me to assume that the Top 3 seats should be Republican-held, and objectively I think it's more likely that the Democrats win both Arizona and Alabama than they hold both Indiana and Missouri. That's because the dynamics in both of these races six years ago were largely dependent on scandals. In Indiana, that meant that Rep. Joe Donnelly (who basically only ran here because he'd been gerrymandered out of his current district and was throwing a Hail Mary that connected in a grand way), got extraordinarily lucky when Richard Lugar was hammered in the primary and when Richard Mourdock made offensive comments about rape. Without those two incidents, it's hard to picture him being in Congress today. He'll have (presumably) a more favorable environment in 2018 compared to 2012, and incumbency, but it's hard to picture he and McCaskill both catching a break again this cycle, and they represent very red states. If Evan Bayh couldn't win last cycle, can Joe Donnelly? (Previous Ranking: 3)
 |
| Attorney General Josh Hawley (R-MO) |
It's worth noting that pundits have historically underestimated Claire McCaskill at their own peril. Having dispatched a sitting governor, sitting senator, and sitting congressman in her last three elections, only a fool would assume that she's doomed in 2018. That being said, McCaskill has the toughest race of any incumbent this cycle, and will need more than just environment as a break here. The Republicans have a very good candidate in Attorney General Josh Hawley, albeit not as good as Ann Wagner would have been, and he's already running hard after McCaskill in hopes of framing her as out-of-touch and too liberal (a path that Donald Trump pulled on a different blonde, female politician last year to much success in the Show-Me State). McCaskill will probably have more money and the better climate, but she's going to need people to dislike Hawley to make up for her bad negatives with the states swing voters. She's done it before, but it'll be tough. (Previous Ranking: 2)
 |
| Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) |
With 11 months still left in the Senate race, anything can happen, but when you're an incumbent looking at a laundry list of issues with your candidacy and campaign, "anything can happen" is more about self-reassurance than facts, and right now Dean Heller is probably the underdog to win this race. He's associated with a wildly unpopular president, is a Republican running in what's looking like a very Democratic field, and his opponent is a scandal-free congresswoman who was able to avoid a primary. Heller is the incumbent, but honestly the death knell for his campaign may be that he is the only Republican senator in a state that Hillary Clinton won last year. Republicans who fit his profile got CRUSHED in Virginia a few weeks ago, and Heller has not been voting well to insulate himself from attacks associating him with Trump (particularly when it comes to healthcare). Unless something shocking happens here, it feels like Jacky Rosen will be Nevada's senator-elect a year from now. (Previous Ranking: 1)
No comments:
Post a Comment