How Trump Wins But Republicans Lose in Playing Nice with Democrats

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) &
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

Okay, not a lot surprises me anymore in politics.  In fact, we may have entered the period of time were Donald Trump genuinely can't surprise me anymore, but I have to admit I raised an eyebrow yesterday when word-surfaced that the Democratic leaders of congress (Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Nancy Pelosi) had basically gotten everything they wanted out of the congressional debt ceiling vote, while the Republican leaders (Speaker Paul Ryan and Sen. Mitch McConnell) had gotten virtually nothing they wanted, as of course the Democrats are in the minority and don't have the leverage of the Oval Office.  That Donald Trump was the reason that this happened, and that Trump was the one who pushed for the Republicans to cave, essentially giving in to all of Pelosi and Schumer's demands made me very curious to see what might happen in the future for the dynamics between POTUS and Congress, as this was an extremely unusual turn-of-events that I don't recall ever happening before.

Congressional negotiations almost always have winners and losers, and it's not uncommon to see one side end up with the lion's share of the wins.  Even when one side is entirely in the minority, you tend to see some compromise to get support from the minority, as you always have to worry about your far right or far left flank.  This is why congressional leaders are admired for their ability to deliver votes.  One of the main reasons that I argue Nancy Pelosi is the most effective congressional leader since Tip O'Neill is that she can do just that-she's extremely good at getting her caucus to bend to the needs of her larger party, and quite adept at vote counting.  It's also one of the reasons that John Boehner was ill-suited for leading a party in Congress-he was terrible at this.  But still, even in the past when someone has complained about, say, Joe Biden giving in too much to Mitch McConnell during a debate, I've never witnessed the incumbent president essentially agreeing to everything the opposite party wanted, particularly with the Republican leaders present (and in the majority!).

It's hard not to see this as a clear win for Pelosi and Schumer.  They are going to get credit for teaming up with Trump on an issue that basically had to pass (it's political suicide to not be able to deliver hurricane relief, or to vote against it if you're from that home state), but aren't going to get too many Democrats mad because it's not like they caved on a major issue like healthcare or DACA.  They also have a much stronger hand in three months when the debt ceiling is up again.  It's clear from these negotiations (and from the eventual votes that will follow), that Paul Ryan and/or Mitch McConnell do not have the votes to have a clean debt ceiling hike, otherwise they would have gone ahead without the negotiations.  Pelosi & Schumer can now parlay a December negotiation into getting something they may really want, like a congressional extension on DACA.  It might not be a great bill for the country (personally, I think that these debt ceiling debates are bad economics and we should eliminate them or make them less frequent), but for the Democratic Party yesterday was a great day.

The problem for the GOP, though, is that it was also a very good day for President Trump, even if it was a terrible day for his party.  Donald Trump, despite his protestations, has had very few legislative achievements in his time in office.  Getting very quick relief for Hurricane Harvey is arguably the most important bill that Trump will have passed so far, and the most important accomplishment he's achieved other than his successful judicial nominations.  To most presidents this would be an asterisk in their future libraries (most have a major partisan bill of sorts by this point), but for Trump even getting on first base is a major win, and he'll likely get a lot of good press out of this, something that he's been sorely lacking (and something he's definitely wanted).  It's doubtful it lasts, as DACA, Russia, and North Korea will quickly return to the headlines or that it ultimately helps him with his approval ratings, but make no mistake-for a president that hasn't had many wins, this is one.

It also shows a telling strategy for Trump, and one that should scare the crap out of congressional Republicans.  It's not clear, exactly, why Trump gave in so quickly to Democrats yesterday.  I'm too cynical to assume it was out of the goodness of his own heart (this is a guy who regularly pledges money to charities but never actually gives), and I'm not going to change my tune here and start calling him an excellent political tactician, but there's likely one of two reasons he went this way, assuming there was a strategy behind his action and not just impatience.

The first is that Trump is being vindictive.  We've seen this time-and-again that Trump has a long  memory for people who support him, even if his support can be quite fickle.  We saw it with Gary Cohn when he publicly criticized the president after Trump's tepid response to the Charlottesville marches, and then Trump removed him from consideration to succeed Janet Yellen as Chair of the Federal Reserve.  Trump is not loyal, it is quite clear, and upset with Paul Ryan's criticism of POTUS's pardon of Joe Arpaio and Mitch McConnell's huge failure to deliver the Trumpcare bill, he may have seen an opportunity to humiliate both by siding with their rivals in Congress.  There's nothing really that McConnell and Ryan can do at this point-this is one of those rare bills that will pass in some form or another, and they can't take on both congressional Democrats AND President Trump, and Schumer/Pelosi know it.  Any attempts to go back on the deal give Schumer and Pelosi ample room to walk, and for Trump to criticize congressional Republicans.

President Trump greets Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

That criticism leads me to my second theory about why Trump sided with the Democrats-he wants to be popular, and he knows he can't get there through the GOP alone.  It's become apparent now that roughly 35% of the country adores President Trump, regardless of what he does.  They aren't so much Republicans anymore as members of the Trump Party, and aren't going to get mad here.  It's not clear if there is a sacred cow that will cost them their support, but it's surely not going to be hurricane relief and raising the debt ceiling.  These are the people that Trump won his primary with, and he knows based on experience that Republicans will fall in line behind him if he can win over this 35%, because they have to (they can't win without them).  This is why Trump is more than willing to start wooing Democrats to his side.  We've seen it with not only the debt ceiling negotiations but also in his recent treatment of several members of the Senate up in states he won in 2018.  He called Sen. Heitkamp a "good woman" and asked her to appear on-stage with him, something that just isn't done with senators you're trying to beat in an election.  Recent trips to Wisconsin and West Virginia had almost no attacks on Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Joe Manchin, both members of the opposite party in those states.  While he made an unusual exception for Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri (one of the most outspoken red-state Democrats up next year), he's been pretty nice to actual Democrats in office, making people like President Obama and Sec. Clinton more common targets for criticism.  This means that those senators can claim "bipartisanship" pretty easily, but without actually having to do anything that might rile up their base.  While it would hardly fly if you were running for Congress from Portland or San Francisco, being in a red state and being nice to the president, when you aren't giving up anything legislatively (Heitkamp confirmed she's still undecided about the president's tax reform bill), is a win-win for them, and a lose-lose for the Republicans.

The Republicans are in an impossible situation here.  If they stick to their principles, they're going to have to start bucking the president or jousting with the president on some of these issues, and his wrath could be vicious.  I honestly think that Jeff Flake will lose in 2018 as a direct result of President Trump's actions, throwing him under the bus because he didn't support him hard enough, something I can't imagine President Obama ever considering for Collin Peterson or George W. Bush remotely pondering for Olympia Snowe.  Republicans cannot win without that 35% of the vote, Paul Ryan & Mitch McConnell can't stay in charge without that 35% of the vote.  If Trump controls how that 35% of the vote thinks, and wants to, say, start a campaign to get someone more devoted to him as Speaker, he probably could and win, and he's realizing that now.  The Democrats don't have to play nice with them if they don't want to-Schumer & Pelosi know they are dealing with a president that their base loathes and that has low national approval ratings.  But by giving the Democrats something for nothing, Trump may well be helping their red-state Democrats win reelection, all the while still getting to slam congressional Republicans' base and gain from Trump being continually unpopular with their own.  It's the rare "have your cake and eat it too" in politics, and it could spell doom for the Republican Party, even if it benefits their president.