SAG Nominations ≠ Oscar Nominations

We've done it with Emmy.  We've done it with the Golden Globes.  And we've done it with BAFTA.  Sometimes a nomination at a precursor just doesn't equal with Oscar.  However, for the SAG Awards, it really does.  I had been holding off a bit on an article about the actors who have been nominated for film awards at the SAG Awards but never at the Oscars partially because the list is relatively small (SAG generally really does equal Oscar), and I wasn't sure how to do it.  However, I like the format I went with below, so let's take a dive into the unlucky few who have been nominated for SAG but not with Oscar.  As a reminder, there are some actors (such as Tilda Swinton and Forest Whitaker) who have been nominated for performances at the SAG Awards but not at the Oscars, but they are still Oscar nominees so they aren't on the below list, just those at the SAG Awards who have yet to dance with AMPAS.

Best Actress
Number of SAG Nominees without an Oscar Nod: 6 (Meg Ryan, Pam Grier, Jane Horrocks, Evan Rachel Wood, Ziyi Zhang, Jennifer Aniston)
Came the Closest with Oscar: The latter three were all in heavy contention for the nomination, with Aniston considered something of a lock.  All three got thrown out for surprises (Keisha Castle-Hughes moving to lead for Wood, Laura Linney and Marion Cotillard randomly landing a nod after being denied for most of the season for the latter).  If I had to go with one specifically, I would go with Aniston.
You Crazy SAG!: Meg Ryan's nomination for When a Man Loves a Woman is vintage SAG, the era when they would not only nominate The Birdcage for Best Cast, but give it the trophy.  Ryan also happened to land that nod in 1994, which was one of those "let's throw pasta at the wall and see what sticks" kind of years.
Who Has the Best Shot to Break the Cycle?: Ryan, Grier, and Horrocks have all seen their time pass and Zhang probably is firmly in the "international star" category, the kind thats get a screening during a Summer arthouse slot, but never actually gains awards traction again.  Aniston and Wood, however, have pretty vibrant careers going-Aniston clearly has a taste for the Oscar after her near miss with Cake (Peter Bogdonavich, anyone?) and probably has the slight edge for the next couple of years, though Wood is more consistently in Oscar-bait supporting roles.  I'll go with Wood, but if Aniston announces a bait-y project before 2017, I'm switching pretty quickly.

Best Actor
Number of SAG Nominees without an Oscar Nod: 5 (Joseph Fiennes, Jamie Bell, Richard Gere, Peter Dinklage, Emile Hirsch)
Came the Closest with Oscar: Richard Gere.  He'd won the Globe, was SAG-nominated, and was headlining a Best Picture winner.  The thing people forget about Gere is that he wasn't a frontrunner at the beginning of the cycle for the fifth slot, Michael Caine was.  It wasn't until he won the Globe and got a shock nod at the SAG Awards that he suddenly became invincible, but at that point some of the balloting had started and lead actors in musicals usually have a tough time getting nominated.  Still, this had to have been a close sixth place.
You Crazy SAG!: Peter Dinklage, the future Tyrion Lannister, managed a nomination for a miniscule film in 2003 knocking out far heavier hitters like Jude Law (Cold Mountain) and Russell Crowe (Master and Commander).  This was also the year that SAG threw a major monkey wrench in the winner predictions-after Bill Murray and Sean Penn won at the Globes, the SAG Awards decided randomly to give the trophy to Johnny Depp, giving us one of the most nail-biting races for the Oscar in a while.
Who Has the Best Shot to Break the Cycle?: Hmm, I kind of want to say none of them.  Gere probably makes the most sense in the Hollywood hierarchy, but they've passed him by a few times now and maybe he's just not their cup of tea.  Still, a stellar supporting turn would be hard to turn down in the right Best Picture nominee, so I'll go with that, as Fiennes/Hirsch have watched their time fade, Dinklage is too into TV now, and Jamie Bell has the curse of being nominated as a child actor.

Best Supporting Actress
Number of SAG Nominees without an Oscar Nod: 9 (Jamie Lee Curtis, Robin Wright, Gwen Verdon, Alison Elliott, Cameron Diaz, Dakota Fanning, Maria Bello, Diane Kruger, Mila Kunis)
Came the Closest with Oscar: Another tough call.  Wright, Diaz, Bello, and Kunis all also scored with the Globes, making them de facto predictions (so did Curtis, but in lead, and that performance's awards trajectory has always baffled me, though I can't wait to eventually see it).  I think I'm going to go with Robin Wright in Forrest Gump over the other three though.  She got snubbed in a MAJOR surprise with Jennifer Tilly randomly scoring for Bullets Over Broadway and her competition that year (Curtis, Jessica Tandy in Nobody's Fool, Kirsten Dunst in Interview with a Vampire, and her costar Sally Field (who probably cost her the nomination with vote-splitting) all sort of pale to the baitiness of her role in a shallow year).
You Crazy SAG!: I actually don't find any of these truly egregious-Verdon and Elliott were both a little odd, but they were both riding coattails which isn't unusual.  Instead, I'm going to go with someone that made me shout "really?" even though she's an Oscar winner: Cloris Leachman in Spanglish!  An Adam Sandler movie?  And one that somehow flopped during his peak Box Office years?  I mean, it is James L. Brooks but when Natalie Portman, Meryl Streep, and Kate Winslet are all there with prestige dramas, it's kind of hard to believe they randomly decided to honor Phyllis Lindstrom.
Who Has the Best Shot to Break the Cycle?: It should be noted that Diaz is the only person EVER to be nominated for two SAG Awards for film performances and not be an Oscar nominee (she was cited for both Being John Malkovich and Vanilla Sky), so she probably should be selected here but she never seems interested in such work anymore.  Still, if she were to find her Blind Side, she could be in the conversation again considering her celebrity.  Subtracting her from the conversation, I'm guessing that Robin Wright's new lease on life after House of Cards could give her a plum role ala Felicity Huffman in Transamerica.

Best Supporting Actor
Number of SAG Nominees without an Oscar Nod: 15 (John Turturro, Kevin Bacon, Nathan Lane, Hank Azaria, Noah Taylor, Billy Connolly, David Kelly, Hayden Christensen, Dennis Quaid, Alfred Molina, Freddie Highmore, Dev Patel, Armie Hammer, Daniel Bruhl, James Gandolfini)
Came the Closest with Oscar: This is actually a pretty long list-SAG has a knack for nominating the sixth place finishers in the Oscar race.  I'm still beyond flummoxed by Dennis Quaid's lack of a nomination when it looked like he might win the Oscar at the time.  As weird as it is to say, though, I'd probably go with Hayden Christensen.  At the time, Life as a House was a top contender in both lead and supporting (Kevin Kline was on my prediction list) and Christensen was poised to be "the next big star."  In the end Jon Voight's work in Ali got in (Jon Voight always finds a way), and Christensen became something of a pop culture joke.  It's weird to think how different his career might have been if he'd made it with Oscar-could he have recovered?
You Crazy SAG!: Not one, but two of the Birdcage stars made it into the SAG Award category, and while it's awesome to see Hank Azaria's hilarious cook in the category, what exactly about Nathan Lane's performance is supporting? (raised eyebrow)
Who Has the Best Shot to Break the Cycle?: This is a long list, but none of them really pop as "Oscar must go to there!"  Alfred Molina works the most in prestige, but he can never seem to gain traction with Oscar.  Armie Hammer still gets cast in major movies (admittedly in side roles now) so he's a possibility but I continue to have trouble seeing him actually popping considering all of the opportunities he's had, so I'll go with either Kevin Bacon or Dennis Quaid.  Both of them are big enough stars that a key supporting turn would gain attention, and while I think a win might be out of the question, they've both worked with everyone so who knows if the right movie comes along.

And there you have it-the SAG actors who just can't win with AMPAS.  What are your thoughts?  Who do you think will be the next off this list?  Who are you surprised is still on it?  And whose nomination did you completely blank happened?  Share in the comments!