Best Play
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Disgraced
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts 1 and 2
The Lowdown: I honestly don't see a way that this doesn't go to Curious Incident. Wolf Hall has a bit of a cultural moment considering that it's also on PBS right now, but that won't be enough to overcome what may well be THE show of the season on Broadway. Curious Incident by a mile.
Best Musical
An American in Paris
Fun Home
Something Rotten
The Visit
The Lowdown: In a rare twist for a category that is almost always a gimme (it's been a landslide victory in recent years for the winners with the exception of Kinky Boots over Matilda), we have a barnburner between the new-to-everyone Fun Home and the Broadway debut of the classic An American in Paris. The question here is whether Broadway is voting with its inventive or pragmatic side (I say this not having seen either of the shows)-it's pretty obvious that a known commodity like An American in Paris is going to play better on the road where a lot of the producers pick up their profits, but Fun Home could be a solid investment as well. I'm going to go with the "more original" Fun Home, but wouldn't be stunned if Paris pulled out the victory.
The Elephant Man
Skylight
This is Our Youth
You Can't Take it With You
The Lowdown: Skylight has all of the advantages here-it's still on Broadway, is getting raves, stars major actors, and its biggest competition (The Elephant Man) closed months ago. It's hard to imagine the show missing, particularly considering that its lead actors are both underdogs in their categories and it needs to score somewhere.
Best Revival of a Musical
The King and I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
The Lowdown: While I'm still debating the Best Actress field, it's easier to go with the Kelli O'Hara vehicle here-it's a classy Lincoln Center adaptation which is something that is bound to be celebrated, and On the Twentieth is really more all about the Chenoweth than it is about the actual production.
Best Actor in a Play
Steven Boyer, Hand to God
Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man
Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts 1 and 2
Bill Nighy, Skylight
Alex Sharp, The Curious Case of the Dog in the Night-Time
The Lowdown: Alex Sharp is in the middle of a swirl right now. A virtual unknown a year ago, he's now headlining a major Broadway production just after his Juilliard graduation and looks very likely to score a Tony Award over one of the biggest stars in the American cinema. Bradley Cooper cannot totally be discounted (as can't Steven Boyer's celebrated turn in Hand to God), but both of them are decidedly behind Sharp, who is about to be the Esperanza Spalding of the Tonys.
Geneva Carr, Hand to God
Helen Mirren, The Audience
Elisabeth Moss, The Heidi Chronicles
Carey Mulligan, Skylight
Ruth Wilson, Constellations
The Lowdown: On the list of actors you've actually heard of, I suspect that the Tony Awards will give in and give this award to the massive movie star when they skip Bradley Cooper. Dame Helen Mirren seems likely to win a Tony Award for playing a queen, something she's already won an Oscar and an Emmy for-anyone think she could do a recording version of Hamlet and play Gertrude and get the Grammy for a similar such role? Should she somehow falter, Carey Mulligan seems most likely to succeed her.
Best Actor in a Musical
Michael Cerveris, Fun Home
Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten
Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
Ken Watanabe, The King and I
Tony Yazbeck, On the Town
The Lowdown: The two musical acting categories are decidedly the toughest to predict, and the easiest thing to say is that Watanabe and Yazbeck can just enjoy the show, as the winner will be amongst the other three. If this were the Oscars I'd say James would be the winner, as his long history with the Tony Awards without a win (he was also nominated for Sweet Smell of Success and Shrek! The Musical) would guarantee him a victory, but the Tonys don't mind a repeater (just ask Audra McDonald) and Michael Cerveris is headlining the likely Best Musical winner. Of course, they could back a newbie in Robert Fairchild, more known as a dancer than as an actor. I'm going to go with Cerveris, if only because Something Rotten has faded so quickly in the Best Musical race, but any of these three men wouldn't be a surprise.
Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century
Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
Beth Malone, Fun Home
Kelli O'Hara, The King and I
Chita Rivera, The Visit
The Lowdown: Saving the best for last (they should really just end the show with this award-it's the one Tony fans care the most about), we have an all-out war between three Broadway legends: Chita Rivera, Kristin Chenoweth, and Kelli O'Hara. O'Hara famously has never won despite six Tony nominations (she's also shockingly never won the Drama Desk, Drama League, or Outer Critics Circle Award as well, making her the most-nominated loser currently on Broadway), but support for The King and I seems to have waned a bit in recent weeks with Rivera and Chenoweth scooping up all of the accolades. Chenoweth is hosting, which has to help, but Rivera (who has two Tonys to Kristin's one) hasn't won in a few decades and is certainly the most personally popular of the three women (plus, at 82 she may well be doing her final curtain on Broadway). My head is saying Kelli, my heart is saying Chita, and my gut is saying Kristin...and I'll go with my gut here and pick the host. Either way, this is going to be a HUGE moment at the Tony Awards, so don't miss it.
And there you have it-the Tony predictions for 2015! Whom do you think will win? Whom are you rooting for? Share your thoughts below in the comments!
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