Ann Kirkpatrick Bets Big on a Senate Run

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ)

Normally weekday afternoon posts are devoted to film reviews, but today I heard what may be one of the bigger surprises of the year in terms of Senate recruitment, so I'm going to do two political posts in a row.  We'll be back on the movie review bandwagon tomorrow afternoon though with Disney's latest Tomorrowland.  In the meantime, let's discuss the shocking announcement that Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick will be running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by John McCain.

This is a surprise on myriad different levels, but it starts with the fact that McCain is getting a serious contender at all.  John McCain has never received less than 56% of the vote in his home state, and is a well-known politician with name recognition unrivaled by probably any other person in the U.S. Senate.  He has run for president twice (being the GOP nominee in 2008), has been on the veep shortlist since he was elected to the Senate, and is a hero of the Vietnam War.  He's also one of the most hawkish Republicans in the country, and represents a traditionally red state.  One would have to wonder when tasked against such a man what Kirkpatrick is thinking.

It's hard to get at what Kirkpatrick is going for here, except perhaps that she knows that this might be her one shot at a promotion.  The 3-term congresswoman has always had some ambition, but she represents a red district in a red state, and has still managed to win several elections that she wasn't expected to win (most pointedly last year's shocking victory in the Midterms, when she was basically the only vulnerable Democrat outside of Minnesota and California to pull through).  At 65, she's not what one would consider a particularly young challenger (though she's spritely compared to the 78-year-old McCain, who will be eighty when he stands for reelection), and she might look at this as her best shot at seeking a promotion, especially if she wants to stay on Capitol Hill.  Her fellow congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema seems certain to skip the Senate battle now that Kirkpatrick is in the race (it would be idiotic for the two star Democrats to compete against each other for a seat that's a long-shot to begin with), and as a result Kirkpatrick won't have to compete for Sinema's leftovers in 2018 when she challenges either Sen. Jeff Flake or Gov. Doug Ducey in their reelection bids.  It's also worth noting that Kirkpatrick is famously gutsy, running a strong campaign last cycle when most Democrats were running as far to the right as they could.

So what does this mean, though, for the actual race?  Kirkpatrick is surely risky and courageous to take this on, but those are words you usually throw toward someone that is about to lose.  The reality is, though, that Kirkpatrick is betting hard on one thing: that Hillary Clinton can succeed where Barack Obama cannot.  This is the same bet that Jason Kander, another blue chip recruit running for a seemingly unwinnable race in Missouri, is making.  Both Democrats are hoping that Clinton's candidacy will somehow be able to merge the coalitions of both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.  This is particularly compelling for Kirkpatrick, who represents a state that is Republican but increasingly Democratic thanks to the support of Hispanic voters who swing blue.  If she can build on that coalition AND ride support from moderate and blue-collar women/families that may side with Hillary Clinton's historic run, she could be poised to pounce.  Emily's List, which is poised to be one of the biggest forces of 2016, is probably giddy at the prospect of endorsing women exactly like Kirkpatrick in hopes of gaining big numbers for their victor count on Clinton's coattails.

There's also the possibility, however remote, that she could mirror the candidacy of Rep. Joe Donnelly of Indiana.  While I frequently name-check Heidi Heitkamp when I talk about Democrats who won in red states (and Kirkpatrick would be foolish not to seek out her advice), it's actually Donnelly that should provide Kirkpatrick the most inspiration.  Donnelly entered the Indiana Senate race as a long-shot, basically praying that the Republicans would shoot themselves in the foot by ousting a longtime Republican incumbent in the primary and then gaining moderate voters who are turned off by the Tea Party.  Two gadfly candidates are running to John McCain's right, and I suspect that the Club for Growth will endorse at least one (probably State Sen. Kelli Ward), which could give Kirkpatrick a Richard Mourdock situation (which Arizona is moderate enough to let her take advantage of).  It's also worth noting that McCain has made some extremely off-color remarks in recent years that have hit his approval ratings-he has disapproval ratings in the mid-50's.  That's not unbeatable (Harry Reid can tell you that), but it's not great and hardly invincible.

There's a grey cloud on this election, of course.  While the DSCC is doing a happy dance all the way to Tucson (they needed it after finding out that the underwhelming Joe Sestak will be their nominee in 2016 with Josh Shapiro out in Pennsylvania), the DCCC is cringing at the prospect of Kirkpatrick retiring from the House.  Kirkpatrick joins Rep. Patrick Murphy as a Romney-district Democrat running statewide (it's worth noting that there are only five Romney-district Democrats in Congress, so this will surely be Target No. 1 for House Republicans).  Kirkpatrick hopefully has someone in mind to take over for her in the House, but right now is focused on an uphill (but not impossible) bid for the U.S. Senate.