Pet Peeves About the 2016 Election

Are you as tired as I am about the 2016 presidential race, in particular the completely constant coverage of the election while absolutely nothing seems to be happening.  Yes, a couple of Republicans have gone to campaign in New Hampshire or started to proclaim their love of Iowa farms, and yes, Martin O’Malley seems to be campaigning for anyone in a remotely competitive early primary state (Lucy Flores, expect a phone call).  But there’s nothing new going on with this race.  Nothing.

And yet, we’ve heard about it daily for months (that is, if you’re a masochist like me who reads political news daily), and I figured it’s time I get my two cents in on a few recurring themes and pet peeves.  They are as follows:

The Democrats are in Dire Straits if Hillary doesn’t run.

This is so ridiculous it almost doesn’t bear repeating, but it’s said like it’s a fact so I figured I’d go there.  The reality is that Hillary Clinton leaving would deprive the Democrats of a frontrunner, but hardly put them in a particularly bad position in 2016, just a neutral one.  Some could argue that it would actually behoove the Democrats to go with one of the governors being rumored for the position (Martin O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer), rather than someone so closely tied with the Obama administration.  Democrats want Hillary to run because she starts with an inherent advantage that other people don’t (average voters genuinely seem to want her to be president), but honestly-any nominee for either party is going to be formidable in such a sharply divided country.

Stop talking like all of these candidates will run.

The reality is that not all of the names being bandied about right now will run.  Most candidates savor their brief 48-hours of press regarding them announcing they aren’t running for president, but very few actually make the leap, and even fewer are genuinely competitive for the nomination.

And we’re not just talking about minor candidates like John Kasich or Marsha Blackburn.  We’re talking major candidates.  In the past six cycles at least one MAJOR candidate declined to run despite major press surrounding them entering the race.  Mario Cuomo, Colin Powell, Jack Kemp, Al Gore, Dick Cheney, and Sarah Palin all had strong, in some case almost-locked down shots at the presidential nomination and yet for whatever reason declined to enter.  Between Hillary, Jeb, and Chris Christie (probably the most “titan-like” of the prospective nominees), I expect at least one will take a pass on the race.

Hillary Speculation is a Pointless Endeavor

Hillary Clinton is not going to show her cards before November.  End of story.  We can all speculate what a certain speech means and whether she will run, but once you’ve said it once, there’s no reason to continue chatting.

So I will say right now, for the record, that I think she will run.  She sounds like a candidate, she wants to be president (she’s run before and clearly still wants it because she could have shot down this buzz pretty easily), and she’s the frontrunner in a way that no non-sitting president or vice president has been since Eisenhower.  And that, until you hear more from her or her team, is all I have to say on the matter.

Politicians are not like you and I

Hillary Clinton, and to a certain degree Jeb Bush and Joe Biden, are frequently being talked about as if they will have to make a gigantic decision about whether or not they want to run for president.  And they will-it’s an enormous endeavor, and as has been proven by someone like Fred Thompson in recent years, you cannot just expect the nomination on a silver platter-you have to really, truly want it.

But I am tired of reading, with Hillary in particular, as if these are “normal” people who want to run for president and are making that decision.  These are not normal people.  They are presidential cabinet secretaries, vice presidents, senators, and governors-people who are incredibly powerful and frequently have worked with the office of president.  They know what they’d be getting into, and they all clearly would love to be president.

Another comment I want to make is regarding Hillary and the “grandmother” question, as to whether Hillary would prefer to stay at home and be a grandmother.  I’m going to answer that one right now-she wouldn’t.  Hillary Clinton is surely extremely proud of her achievements as a mother and will be excited to have a grandchild in the family, but this is a woman who has measured many of her political successes outside of exclusively family.  She’s a former Secretary of State, a former senator, a very influential First Lady, and a hugely influential person.  She is not going to quit all of that to spend time at home with her grandchild.  I’m sorry if that sounds a bit anti-family (I don’t mean it that way at all), but she is someone who measures her successes both personally AND professionally, and is not going to sacrifice one for the other.

Rand Paul will never be president.

It’s risky to talk in absolutes in politics, but I can say for certain that Rand Paul will never be President of the United States (if he does become president, throw this comment back in my face).  Neither, quite frankly, will Ted Cruz.  And there’s a decent chance that unless she’s against one of these two men, Elizabeth Warren won’t either.  These politicians inspire their bases in major ways, and are capable of enormous influence and sway in their roles as senators.  They’re arguably the three most influential freshmen senators in Washington right now.  But they are too far to the extremes of their parties to actually get elected.  The media keeps talking about how they are the potential dark horses, but the reality is that the Democrats will go with Hillary, Biden, or someone like O’Malley or Kirsten Gillibrand at the end of the day, and the GOP will likely choose between Jeb, Christie, Paul Ryan, or Marco Rubio.  They may be extremes in your eyes, but they’re within the mainstream of their party’s primaries, and that’s what will matter.

The Electoral College Doesn’t Favor Republicans

Talk about it all you want, but the reality is that the Electoral College, and the White House in general is very much a problem for the GOP still.  Maybe I just read too much Chris Cillizza, but the overwhelming amount of press seems to put the demographics issue in the future, with the GOP not having to encounter it in 2016, when in reality they’ve already encountered it in 2008 and 2012.  The reality is that states like New Mexico and Nevada have migrated pretty hard to the Democrats in recent years, to the point where I think you’d need a nationwide wave in order to reach them.  The Democrats may not be able to pick off Georgia or Arizona quite by 2016, but the scary truth for the GOP is they don’t need to do so.

The Republicans could still win, of course (I currently have about 124 electoral votes as being genuinely up for grabs in a generic Republican vs. Democrat battle), but past elections aren’t kind to them in those nine states (WI, CO, IA, OH, PA, NC, VA, FL, and NH).  Virginia and New Hampshire both continue to get bluer, while Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin aren’t turning red fast enough.  The Republicans could well cement Ohio again, and the presence of one of their favorite sons could keep Florida, but the demographic problem is very real in swing areas, particularly if the Democrats nominate someone like Hillary Clinton, who can open up the playing field into states like Arkansas, Missouri, or Georgia while not abandoning any Obama states in a major way.

And that’s where the last bit of the demographic problem is going to be an issue.  I frequently read about how demographic trends could turn Texas, Georgia, or Arizona blue by 2020, but here’s the catch: there’s only one election in between then and now that matters.  If Hillary wins it, where does that leave the GOP in 2020 when they have a dwindling electorate and have to take on an incumbent?

Anyway, these are all great fodder for debate, but they’re my last bits about the presidential elections of 2016 for a while until there’s anything new.  Do you have any thoughts so far?  Do you have any pet peeves I missed?  Share in the comments!