Brian Schweitzer and the State of the Senate

This morning, the Democrats got what amounted to a political gut punch from former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer.  Schweitzer, who had a popular tenure in Helena, was seen as the very heavy favorite to win the seat of retiring Sen. Max Baucus in both the primary and general elections.  With his surprise announcement that he won't run for the Senate next year, the Democrats are put into a stunningly difficult situation, as the Republicans are now favored to pick up the Treasure State seat.

At the risk of falling into hyperbole, this may be the moment the Democrats lost the U.S. Senate next year.  With Montana not in play (and assuming Cory Booker easily wins back the New Jersey seat come October), the Republicans were in a difficult position.  They had to essentially run the table in North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska, six Romney states.  Schweitzer was the Democrats' insurance policy-he would keep that seat tied down, and therefore all the Democrats had to do was keep one of their current seats (Hagan, most likely) and they would keep Mitch McConnell in the minority.

Now the Republicans have some wiggle room, and the Democrats should start to panic just a little bit.  While the Democrats have strong candidates in Montana (expect names like State Auditor Monica Lindeen and State Superintendent Denise Juneau to come forward; the Democrats would be best to avoid Emily's List President Stephanie Schriock as she's far, far too liberal to win the seat), no one would go into the seat with an advantage like Schweitzer would.  The Democrats now have to hold two of the seven Republican seats in a midterm where President Obama's approval ratings have started to bottom.  The Democrats will need to catch at least a couple of breaks in their races.

They've caught a few so far.  Purple seat states like Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado have so far avoided strong challengers from the GOP.  About the only great recruit they got was in Michigan, where former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land surprisingly said yes and will take on Rep. Gary Peters.  Peters is still the favorite to succeed Sen. Carl Levin, but he's got a slightly harder uphill battle.

Democratic recruitment has been somewhat abysmal by comparison, with one obvious exception.  While the Democrats got their men in Michigan and Iowa (Reps. Peters and Bruce Braley), the real coup was in Kentucky, where Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes decided to make the race against Sen. Mitch McConnell.  While Lundergan Grimes's rollout has been rather poor (she seemed to have made her decision to run very much on a wimb), there may be no more loathed incumbent Republican in the country by Democrats than Mitch McConnell (he is despised by the rank-and-file), and so raising money will be no issue for Lundergan Grimes.  Gaining enough votes to beat out McConnell is a different task entirely-McConnell is an electoral barracuda, and will run the dirtiest campaign possible to keep his seat (this may sound a bit more partisan than I'm used to, but check any major nonpartisan political pundit and they'll say the same).

Otherwise, the Democrats recruitment efforts have been poor.  In South Dakota, we couldn't convince any Tier 1 candidates, and we've essentially ceded the seat to Gov. Mike Rounds.  For all intents-and-purposes, West Virginia is also a no-go, where we have yet to get a candidate, period, and though Secretary of State Natalie Tennant and Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis haven't turned down the race yet, one of them would have announced by now if they were going to run.  Democrats seem to be doing better in Georgia, where Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn, will likely announce any day now, and considering the Republicans in the primary are playing a game of "who can say the most offensive thing" at the moment, she could have an outside shot.

The Democrats could, of course, keep the Senate.  Begich, Landrieu, Hagan, and Pryor all have won before, clearly, and could do so again.  Names like Richard Mourdock, Sharron Angle, Christine O'Donnell, Todd Akin, Joe Miller, and Ken Buck are all worth remembering when we say that any moderately competitive seat can't turn on a dime.  And there's always the possibility that Juneau or Lindeen are secretly the Heidi Heitkamp of Montana, bucking expectations and winning their respective seats (Jon Tester can attest that the state can elect a Democrat from time-to-time, including with Romney at the top of the ticket).

However, Schweitzer's lack of a run makes it exponentially more likely that Mitch McConnell will run the Senate for the final two years of President Obama's presidency, and quite frankly, that's unforgivable.  Part of this is the DSCC's fault (pity poor Michael Bennet)-the fact that they couldn't get Carte Goodwin to run in West Virginia or Stephanie Herseth Sandlin to run in South Dakota is pretty pathetic.  But Schweitzer strung along the Democrats for months while we assumed he would run.  He threatened a primary against Sen. Baucus for a while, which could have been a contributing factor to the senator retiring in the first place.  This is unforgivable in my book, and if he decides he can stomach Washington enough to run for President in 2016 (a likely move for an ambitious pol), he won't be getting any support from me, and hopefully won't from any of my fellow Democrats.