...And That Makes 55!

I said last time that I suspected that Lisa Murkowski would be the next senator, and it turns out, I was right!  Sen. Murkowski became the third Republican in the Senate to endorse gay marriage, an oddity considering that there are only two Republicans in the House who have endorsed-despite the number of members in the House being five-times as large.  While my heart hopes that Sens. Pryor, Manchin, or particularly Landrieu (the three remaining Democrats) would be next to endorse, my money would be on Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is the only blue-state GOP senator up for reelection in 2014.

Another major piece of legislation that is making the rounds right now is ENDA, the Employment Non-Discrimination Act that would prohibit discrimination based on sexual orienttion or gender identity.  All but four of the Democratic United States senators have co-sponsored the bill (the missing four are Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Bill Nelson of Florida, and Tim Johnson of South Dakota, and yes, if you live in their states you should call their offices to tell them to back the bill), and with Harry Reid co-sponsoring the bill (as the majority leader, he does not typically co-sponsor bills), it seems certain that it will be headed to a vote in the Senate.  I've put together my thoughts below on what the swing votes would be on the bill.

Senate
-With the Senate now at 52 (only two of which, Sens. Mark Kirk and Susan Collins, are Republicans), Reid would need eight more senators to avoid a filibuster (both Gomez and Markey in Massachusetts have said they'd vote for ENDA, so that race is a wash on this issue). Considering their support for gay marriage, Sens. Murkowski, Portman, Johnson, and Nelson seem likely to get him to 56. Joe Manchin has seemed relatively open to the bill (surprisingly), so he'd likely be one of the remaining four, which would probably mean that Reid would need some combination of Sens. Pryor, Burr, Chiesa, Heller, Flake, Toomey, and Ayotte to get the final three votes (if I were a betting man, the most likely three would be Pryor, Chiesa, and Burr).

House
-So far, only two Republicans (Reps. Richard Hanna and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) have endorsed gay marriage, so let's assume they support the bill.  The only two clues indicative of where this vote would go (provided it made it to the floor) are [Link] and [Link] - the 2007 vote on ENDA (which notably didn't include gender identity) and the 2010 DADT repeal.

Republicans who Voted Yes in 2007 Still in Office: Campbell, Mario Diaz-Balart, Frelinghyusen, Gerlach, LoBiondo, Miller (MI), Reichert, Ros-Lehtinen, Ryan, Walden

Republicans who Voted Yes in 2010 Still in Office: Campbell, Dent, Reichert, Ros-Lehtinen

Democrats Who Voted No in 2007 Still In Office: Clarke, Holt, Lipinski, McIntyre, Michaud, Nadler, Rahall, Velazquez (it's likely Nadler, Velazquez, Holt, and Clarke didn't vote yes because the bill didn't include gender identity)

Democrats Who Voted No in 2010 Still In Office: Peterson, Rahall

So, assuming that Pelosi's wilcards in the caucus would be McIntyre, Peterson, Rahall, and Lipinski (the others who voted no before are either reliably liberal or running statewide in a blue state and won't want to upset the liberals), she'll be at 199 and need nineteen votes. Even if she gets her entire caucus behind it, plus every Republican who voted yes in either 2007 or 2010, that's still only 214 votes.

So while there's a lot of momentum, it seems almost impossible for the bill to pass the House.  But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.  Pressuring people in swing/moderate districts like Mike Coffman, Rodney Davis, and Gary Miller could make the difference if the momentum gains steam.  So go out, check to see if your members of Congress back ENDA, and if they don't, get on the phone and do your civic duty!