Saturday, January 11, 2025

Ranting On...the Classics Debate

We're on our third article before I go back into hibernation and work onto some creative writing, and today we're going to do the only article that isn't related to a longtime The Many Rantings of John tradition.  We've done the $1 billion article & our "No Globe/No SAG/No Problem" article, and we've got two more, including my final Oscar predictions, but today we're going to talk about a debate that has been raging on social media recently.

A little over a year ago, I read James Joyce's Ulysses for the very first time.  Joyce's novel is considered one of the best books ever written, and the Modern Library named it the greatest work-of-fiction of the 20th Century.  I am working on getting through said Modern Library list as part of my book club, and so I knew this would eventually become a mountain I'd have to conquer.  As I was going, though, I was finding that I wasn't entirely understanding everything happening.  Joyce's novel is a take on Homer's Odyssey, which I've read (even though it's been a number of years since I tackled it), but it also relates back to a number of allusions to Irish politics and social taboos of the time, and it's a hard read.  The novel is regularly listed on "Banned Books" lists for school libraries, but my take after reading Joyce's magnum opus is if you're smart enough to understand which parts of Ulysses are dirty, you're old enough to read the book.  It was a challenge, and enough to make me think that Finnegans Wake (generally considered to be the most intellectually steep of Joyce's works) will be a good way to end this project rather than tackling it in the near future (for the curious about my current Modern Library progress, I just finished up Paul Bowles' The Sheltering Sky, which I loved, and will be reading Iris Murdoch's Under the Net next; I'm going out of order but I'm at 36 books at this point).

I read the book not just because it's part of a project, but also because I firmly believe that classic novels should be read.  There has been a lot of discussion in the past couple of decades about the value of the canon, not least of which because the most ardent defender of the Western Canon, Yale Professor Harold Bloom, was generally known to be a jackass in his personal life.  But I think foundational literature and cinema is important, enough so that I devoted one of my final posts before my hiatus to it.  You can debate what qualifies as a classic, but Ulysses is one of those texts that needs to be on the list regardless of how you define the parameters.  And even if it's tough to comprehend sometimes, to quote one of my friends who I texted about halfway through knowing that I might not make it, "just keep reading, because it'll be worth it...even if you don't understand all of it."  He was right-Ulysses was magnificent, the kind of book you could read 50 times and experience something new in its 700-pages every time.

But something has happened in the classics debate that I think is really disturbing: the debate over what constitutes essential reading has laid a path for people just to find it acceptable to not read at all.  This was discussed in-depth online in the wake of Christopher Nolan's decision to make his next film an adaptation of Homer's The Odyssey (which, of course, is what Ulysses is based on...see the method to my madness there?).  So many people, particularly younger people, had no concept of what The Odyssey was, and they were receiving public shaming from posters who were stunned they knew so little about one of the building blocks of literature.  This received a backlash, with those who initially didn't know about The Odyssey proclaiming anything from "that isn't taught in my country" (which is a lie if you had a European or North American education, which most of these posters did-even if it's not taught directly you're going to get allusions to Homer's work in at least one class if you're paying attention), and that it was "too difficult" for them to understand.  This led to more reveals of people using AI to understand it, dumbing down the story to simpler language (not just Homer, but everything from Dickens to Shakespeare) to the tried-and-true method of "there are no universal classics" so this isn't "essential" reading.

I'm not going to champion Harold Bloom, who is a blowhard even if I've got one of his books directly behind me right now, but I am going to say this: The Odyssey is a classic of literature.  Bloom's approach, and much of 20th Century studies of creative fiction, oftentimes precluded women, persons of color, and authors who were not from the United States, Canada, or Europe from "the canon."  That's just a fact.  But it's also foolish to backtrack so badly in trying to correct that to pretend that something like The Odyssey shouldn't be considered a classic-most of literature is in Homer's shadow...most of art is in Homer's shadow.  It's influential in a way only The Bible & Dante's The Divine Comedy can manage to trump in cultural conversation.  If you haven't read it, you can own up to it (even more so than movies, everyone has a classic book they've never gotten around to-my copies of Moby Dick and Ivanhoe have done nothing but collect dust since I bought them), but to pretend it's not important or that you can call yourself educated without having at least a cursory understanding of its story is, well, laughable.

Homer's Iliad and the Odyssey are unique in most cultural conversations because, of course, no one is exactly sure if anything their reading in terms of plot and certainly in terms of verse is actually linked with Homer's original story.  Very little is known about his life (and what is is based on people like Herodotus, who lived centuries after Homer), and his poems were carried forward through oral tradition before being published, first in Greek in the 15th Century.  So if you're reading it in English, you are reading a translation.  Same with The Bible and The Divine Comedy.

But other figures that got brought into this conversation online, like Charles Dickens, were written in a very readable language for people who speak English.  People like Dickens have long been translated into baser editions of their books; when I was in 4th and 5th grade, I read the "Great Illustrated Classics" installments of A Tale of Two Cities, David Copperfield, and Great Expectations as a way to learn more about these stories.  But those editions, I cannot stress enough, are for children.  They are not intended to be read by adults as definitive editions of these works.  Dickens is an accessible writer-he is not Joyce or even Dante...he is writing for the masses.  I read A Christmas Carol recently for the holiday season, and was struck by how similar it is to the many movie adaptations of it...it shouldn't be hard to read his novels.  If you are struggling with that and you're out of high school...it might not be that these books are "super challenging" for most people.  It's more likely that you are just not a practiced or strong reader.

These debates spark up constantly in the past few years, which is terrifying coupled with the rise in fascist rhetoric from right-leaning parties in the United States and Europe.  Anti-intellectualism is a key component of most rises of fascist regimes through history, one of the reasons that book burning became so synonymous with the Nazis.  But even taking politics out of it, the rise of AI to "do your thinking for you" and skipping the thinking for you, particularly for students who need to have the practice of academic rigor to, well, learn anything (you can only get by with not doing the reading for so long before you've actually not done anything), is also terrifying.  ChatGPT is opening the door to a world of people who aren't smart enough to understand books that have been taught to people much younger than them for over a century.  Reading is meant to be enjoyable and pleasurable-that's why it's a leisure activity.  But as I've said before on here, if you don't occasionally challenge yourself with what you're reading or watching on TV or watching at the movies or seeing on a stage...when are you?  Critical thinking is a skill, and if you don't use it (or let someone else, or some thing, do it for you) you'll lose that skill.

Thursday, January 09, 2025

What Will Be the Next $1 Billion Movie?

We are continuing our brief "annual articles" run on the blog (where I'm taking a sabbatical from my hiatus to do five articles I really want to write, and then will go back into hibernation) with one of my absolute favorite articles to write annually: the $1 billion movie prediction.  Box office in 2024 was down 3% compared to 2023, which is honestly surprising given the number of tentpole franchises in 2023 (there were three Marvel films in 2023 compared to just one this year, for example) and so I thought it'd be a larger dip.  This was driven by larger-than-expected box office in North America (much of the downside was in China), and resulted in at least two $1 billion movies (Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine) with Moana 2 almost certain to clear $1 billion sometime next week, giving us three movies in total to reach that milestone.

It has become an annual tradition on the blog for us to predict for the upcoming year which films are likeliest to hit $1 billion.  The first $1 billion movie came in 1997 with Titanic, and since 2008's The Dark Knight, every year (save for the pandemic-impacted year of 2020) has had at least one movie that crossed the threshold.  I actually did really well with predicting last time-I called both Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine in my Top 5, and while I didn't predict Moana 2, to my credit it hadn't been announced yet (I have confidence that I would've guessed it in my Top 5 given the first one's success on Disney+).  Two of the other three contenders I guessed (Despicable Me 4 and Wicked) were enormous successes, and there's a decent chance Wicked will upset Dune 2 to get into the Top 5, meaning I'll have called 80% of the Top 5 (the fifth film I guessed, Joker 2, I definitely missed but then so did all of Hollywood in their assessment of that movie).

I have listed below the five films I think are most likely to make it to $1 billion, listed chronologically by their current release dates.  I have confidence that 2025 will have at least a couple of $1 billion movies (we've been averaging about 2.5 since the quarantine lifted, I don't see that changing), though I do wonder if we're ever going to totally get back to pre-pandemic theater returns or if 2019 might've been a high-water mark for ticket dollars.  Without further adieu, let's dive in!

Honorable Mention: I'll name-check a few contenders below that also should be in the running here, but two films that don't neatly fit into comparisons to the below films but deserve a shout-out in an article likes this are Minecraft and Wicked 2.  Minecraft is a global phenomenon movie in the vein of Mario and The Last of Us, both of which were gargantuan successes.  The trailers do not inspire confidence, but if this clicks, I would imagine that we're going to see a lot of people talking about video game movies the way we talked about comic book movies in the 2010's.  Wicked 2 could follow in the footsteps of Inside Out, Dune, and Moana, where an increased audience at home causes the movie to outgross its predecessor, but I have my doubts.  The second half of the musical is much darker than the first, and it won't have as much time to grow in only a year's time.  Both will probably be hits, but I don't think $1 billion hits which is why they aren't below.

Mission Impossible - The Final Reckoning

Release Date: May 23, 2025
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Tom Cruise showed in 2022 that he has what it takes to make a nostalgic throwback into a surprise $1 billion phenomenon in Top Gun: Maverick.  The final installment of the Mission Impossible franchise, which in some ways also feels like it could be the final action film in Cruise's career (he seems to be signaling this is the end of an era for the quintessential 1990's movie star) will have a lot of people turning in to see how he goes out.  Finality has been a draw in a universe where movie franchises never seem to end-Guardians of the Galaxy 3, for example, was able to hang on when other MCU films were faltering in large part due to people realizing it was the "last" movie in the franchise...could that be the case here?
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: For starters, none of the movies in the franchise have done this.  The closest that any has come is Fallout, which couldn't even hit $800 million, and was getting an extra push because it was at the height of the MoviePass craze.  This will need audience members who have largely eschewed the last movie in the franchise, which didn't even make $600 million.  Harrison Ford nostalgia wasn't enough to get people to Indiana Jones 5...can Tom Cruise nostalgia get them to Mission Impossible 8?
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: There are several action-adventure franchise extensions out in 2025, with new movies in the Predator, Tron, Karate Kid, Naked Gun, and 28 Days series premiering later this year.  Mission Impossible is the biggest (by far) of those options, and so if it isn't making it, it's hard to see these having much cache. 

Jurassic World: Rebirth

Release Date: July 2, 2025
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: I mean, all of the other ones did?  If you consider Jurassic World as its own series (separate from Jurassic Park) it's the only series ever to have all of its movies hit $1 billion.  People love dinosaurs, specifically in this franchise (others they largely eschew).  There's also not a lot of other really big blockbusters this year, and they cast global movie star Scarlett Johansson AND star-of-the-moment Jonathan Bailey as the leads.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Chris Pratt has left the franchise, and while the dinosaurs are the true stars, Pratt's box office prowess (even Garfield was a hit last year) is enviable, and not necessarily duplicative.  I think the bigger problem is that they continually churn out terrible movies on the memory of one perfect one...how long can that actually last?  The last one just BARELY made $1 billion.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: One of the biggest reasons I'm worried about the 2025 box office picture is that there's not a lot of films like Jurassic World: Rebirth this year.  Star Wars, Harry Potter, Fast & the Furious...we aren't seeing anything new from the most beloved franchises other than Jurassic World (and #5 on this list), which leaves little room for error if one of the big tentpoles crumble (particularly given there's not a lot of obvious contenders for *gasp* something original to succeed!).  As a result, if Jurassic World falters, it's less about a group of films that might matter and more that we might just be having a long year.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Release Date: July 25, 2025
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Deadpool becoming the first superhero film in three years to hit $1 billion proved that there's still juice in the can for the comic book genre even if it's not as consistently lucrative as it once was.  There are four major comic book movies coming out in 2025, none with the box office guarantee of uniting Hugh Jackman & Ryan Reynolds, but all with potential.  Of the four, my bet for the likeliest winner is Fantastic Four, which stars Pedro Pascal (who is coming off of the major successes of The Last of Us, The Mandalorian, and Gladiator II right now), and honestly feels like a Marvel bet that will work (i.e. this feels like one that Disney is putting so much attention into, I kind of get the vibes that it will be genuinely good).
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Fantastic Four is something of a running joke in terms of quality, as every big-screen attempt at the franchise has failed in the past, and I say this with great sadness as it's my all-time favorite comic book series (I used to rush with my brother to buy editions of it at our local Pamida).  It's possible that people are over comic books, and even if they aren't, post-pandemic the biggest successes have been Spider-Man, Deadpool, & Batman at the box office...all more established as a fan favorite than the Fantastic Four.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Hollywood takes a long time to catch a trend on the decline (just look at how long it took action films to fall out of fashion in the 1990's), but they will eventually catch it.  After the major failures of The Marvels, Madame Web, Aquaman 2, it's hard not to see the writing on the wall-comic book movies need a hit (and not a guaranteed one like Deadpool 3).  Captain America 4, Thunderbolts, Superman are also ambassadors (for the record, Superman, which had a well-received trailer, was my #6 entry for this list as I do think it has a lot of potential) of the genre, but if none of them click...are we going to start to see this fade from relevance?

Zootopia 2

Release Date: November 26, 2025
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: The formula is simple-after Inside Out and Moana, getting an animated film from the mid-2010's, one that has been playing regularly on Disney+ screens, as well as still fresh enough for Gen Z to feel a nostalgia for it as one of their own formative movies, it makes sense that Disney would try for a third.  Zootopia is the only other movie of this time frame that could pull off this type of appeal, and unlike the other two, it makes the most sense for a sequel.  It's possible it might not just be a hit, but given its November release date, it might also end Disney's current drought with winning the Oscar for Animated Feature (if Inside Out 2 loses as expected, it'll be their longest ever).
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Zootopia is well-loved, but it doesn't have the same lasting pop culture cache of Inside Out or (especially) Moana.  That's honestly the only thing I can think of though-this makes total sense as a greenlight, and were it not for the guarantee of the last film on this list, it'd be the one movie I was absolutely confident would make the $1 billion club.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Disney got all three $1 billion movies last year (the first time ever that we've had 100% of the 3+ $1 billion movies from the same studio).  They've got other opportunities if people are back into their live-action fare (Mufasa won't hit $1 billion, but it'll paw past $500 million this weekend, and almost certainly $600 and maybe $700 million in the coming weeks after a slow start), as both Snow White and Lilo & Stitch are opportunities to revitalize that avenue.  Other animated movies like Elio and The Bad Guys 2 don't have the same calling-card that Zootopia 2 has, but I'm watching (and hopeful especially for Elio, the rare original thought from the Mouse House recently).

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Release Date: December 19, 2025
Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Not only has the first two films crossed the $1 billion mark...they've also crossed the $2 billion mark.  Avatar is a guaranteed "must see in theaters" for audiences, given Cameron's groundbreaking special effects & his ability to bring a quality to his work that few other directors are able to maintain (he also is the only filmmaker who can convince lay audiences to wear 3-D glasses in mass, adding to his box office totals).  The movie could make less-than-half of what the last one made and still qualify for this list, so I'm absolutely confident we'll get at least one $1 billion movie in 2025.
Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: If Avatar 3 doesn't hit $1 billion, the entire industry needs to unplug and reboot.  The only way I don't see this making at least $1 billion is if it wasn't released in 2025 and James Cameron delayed it again.
What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Again, there's no comparison to Avatar.  I do wish that this was the end of the series, so that Cameron might have the chance to do at least one more original idea before he makes his own journey to Pandora (he's 70 and makes 1-2 movies a decade...I worry we might only get Avatar from him going forward), but nothing else in 2025 compares to this.

No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!

America Ferrera at last year's Oscars
Hey-you miss me? 😉 I want to stress, particularly after how much I ballyhooed my leave from the blog, that I am not actually back.  I have really enjoyed having my spare time in the past two months back, as I not only cut out the blog, but also a few other things in my life (including largely lifting Instagram & TikTok out of my life, though Twitter I have fallen into still regularly posting on despite hopes I could kick that more cleanly) and have been able to focus more on things I want to be part of my 2025 resolutions.  I'm reading more, watching more movies (without a cell phone in front of me!), and have actually made progress on my To Do lists.

So why am I back?  Well, for starters I have missed this terribly.  This was something I loved doing every day of my life for 12 years, and it's been hard to have ideas and not put them on the blog.  I quit because I didn't have time for it and time to do other things in my life I wanted to accomplish in the back half of my life after turning 40 last year (think of part of this quitting as a self-identified midlife crisis).  Secondly, I am going to start creative writing a novel on Sunday (and working on it regularly after that), and I am genuinely terrified of whether or not I can do this.  After two months completely off from writing, consider this a warm-up exercise.

And third, and most importantly-there were parts of my life on this blog that were traditions I've done for so many years that I couldn't help but want to return to them...to do without would feel like not putting up a Christmas tree or not giving away candy on Halloween.  Most of them happen in January, and so I'm going to do five articles over the next week and then return to my hibernation.  I am now prepared to say these won't be the only blog articles I'll write (I intend to return on occasion once this band-aid has been ripped off-my brother, who is my most ardent reader & one of the main reasons I kept writing TMROJ for so long, encouraged me, as well as specifically requested today's article as part of a brief sojourn back into the blog), but it is the only ones I'm promising.  This will never return to a daily blog, and I also will not vow to maintain a balance of movies, politics, and other thoughts (quite frankly, after the Trump victory in November, I don't know that I have the stomach for politics outside of an academic setting, anymore), but I will occasionally sneak on here if it's something I can't help but write.

All that said, we're going to do five articles over the coming days before I feel (hopefully more confident) returning to creative writing, and they will all be long-time series we've done before (three movie-related, one book-related, and one related to politics) as we head into next Friday's Oscar nominations announcement.  Today's is going to be our annual "No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!" article, where I talk about a weird phenomenon with the Oscars.  Despite an increasing stagnation in terms of the nominations (there was far more variety in the 1980's between the "precursors" and the Academy Awards), since 2006 (and most years before that) every single year we've had at least one actor who did not receive a nomination for a Golden Globe or a SAG Award that still won an Academy Award nomination.  Yesterday we got our 2024 SAG nominations, and so it is time.  Here's a sampling from the past 10 years of people who pulled off this achievement:

2023: America Ferrera
2022: Brian Tyree Henry, Andrea Riseborough, Judd Hirsch, & Paul Mescal
2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley
2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield
2019: Florence Pugh
2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio
2017: Lesley Manville
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern

Most of these nominations stem from two camps.  One camp is former nominees (like Penelope Cruz in 2021) who are on the Academy's radar already because (as a former nominee) they like them, and so they're able to work the Acting Branch more easily & get their showcase work in front of the Oscars.  The second is someone who (like America Ferrara last year or Jessie Buckley in 2021), is a prominent supporting player in a movie they're already seeing, either a major Best Picture contender or someone who is in a film sure to be nominated for an acting nomination.

I worry every year that this trend will end, and indeed, it looks likelier than most this year.  Not only are we in our second year of the Globes having six nominees in each category (which is stupid-you already have Comedy vs. Drama...why do you need even more actors nominated?), but most of the fields we've heard a lot of the names already.  Supporting Actress, for example, had a pretty robust difference between the Globes & the SAG Awards (only Ariana Grande & Zoe Saldana got in for both), making some names that I had earmarked for this list (like Jamie Lee Curtis in The Last Showgirl) null-and-void.  With all of that preamble done, here are the 10 contenders I think are most plausible to score with Oscar despite the Globes & SAG Awards ignoring them.

Honorable Mention: This list is lacking quite a bit already, thanks to so many already-mentioned contenders, and honestly as Oscar punditry becomes more of a polished industry (where they seem to not value surprises), you see less creativity from Oscar voters who just see the SAG nominations and say "sure, that's about right."  A few names that I think are worth mentioning are standouts in films that aren't really getting much Oscar love such as Bill Skarsgard (Nosferatu), Joan Chen (Didi), or former nominees Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson), & Paul Mescal (Gladiator II).  There's also the possibility that someone from a Best Picture nominee sneaks in (Jonathan Bailey, who like Curtis I had earmarked for this list until he got a SAG nomination, would've been a good example of this).  John Lithgow & Sergio Castellito (Conclave), Michelle Yeoh & Jeff Goldblum (Wicked), and Vache Tovmasyan (Anora) are all names that might be on a few ballots if you really love those movies.  But if there's a new name (and like I said above I do wonder if there will be one), it'll more likely be one of the below ten.

10. Adam Pearson (A Different Man)

For Him: Pearson's role in A Different Man is apparently a scene-stealer (I am doing relatively well with keeping up with 2024, but have not caught this movie yet), and Supporting Actor has the biggest opening, in my opinion, for a surprise given how certain Kieran Culkin is to win the Oscar (half of this Top 10 is geared toward Supporting Actor for a reason).  If Stan is in, and he's in the running, it's hard not to see people also adding in Pearson in supporting.
Against Him: Is Stan going to make it?  Sebastian Stan probably would have a better shot at Best Actor if he wasn't splitting the vote with himself (he's also in the running for The Apprentice), and with the Best Actor race looking increasingly locked into the same five names, it has to be noted that one of those names is not Stan despite his recent Golden Globe win.

9. Josh O'Connor (Challengers)

For Him: O'Connor is one of those up-and-coming actors who is inevitably (at some point) going to be nominated for an Oscar.  Challengers recently did well at the Golden Globes, getting nominated for Best Picture & Actress, and winning Best Score, and has its champions who will likely include it on their Best Picture ballot even if it's not an obvious Top 10 contender.  O'Connor would probably be a decent contender to get nominated given that combination (it worked for someone like Brian Tyree Henry in recent years who had the aura of "future Oscar nominee" and the Academy just decided to go for it for a little seen picture in Breakaway).
Against Him: The problem for O'Connor is similar to Stan, except instead of two films, he's competing in two categories.  O'Connor is campaigning for supporting, even though he's clearly one of the films leads (Mike Faist probably should've been campaigned solo for supporting as he has a smaller part in the film), and with a low-key campaign, it's possible people won't be consistent in giving him a nomination in the same category, cutting down on his already smallish chances.

8. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz or The Outrun)

For Her: Ronan is one of the most recognized young actresses by Oscar, having already accrued four nominations before she turned thirty.  This year she has two showy contenders in Blitz and The Outrun, and unlike Sebastian Stan, there's no category confusion here-though she's a prominent part of Blitz, she's plausibly supporting in it (I wouldn't even call that campaign fraud as it's her son in the film that is the more notable lead), and she's at the main in The Outrun.  Despite neither film being a major player in other categories, a four-time nominee should be able to get into the conversation on her own. 
Against Her: I think Ronan's biggest problem appears to be that no one is really interested in her this year.  Both of these are showy, campaigned roles, but a lack of a Golden Globe or SAG nomination makes me think that people aren't seeing this or she isn't clicking with voters.  This happens on occasion where former favorites fall out-of-favor or just have an off-year...is that happening to Ronan?

7. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown)

For Her: Fanning is part of an acting family, and Oscar is weirdly kind to acting families (it's a town run on nepotism) when it comes to nominations-neither Elle nor Dakota have ever been nominated for an Academy Award, and this is the first really obvious opportunity to do so since Dakota just missed for 2001's I Am Sam.  Fanning is also playing one of Oscar's favorite roles (the long-neglected girlfriend of the Best Actor-assured lead), which could help.  The DGA nomination for A Complete Unknown proves that this is a movie the industry is enjoying.
Against Her: The biggest thing against Fanning is her costar Monica Barbaro.  Barbaro was one of the surprise contenders yesterday for the SAG Awards.  I had, in advance of the SAG Awards, assumed that one of the A Complete Unknown supporting actresses was being underestimated, and if neither made it with SAG, they probably would've been combined to be #1 or #2 on this list.  But with Barbaro already name-checked, Oscar voters could get lazy and assume she's the only contender from her movie, hurting Fanning.

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)

For Her: Ellis-Taylor is a former nominee (always helps) and is the showiest/most-cited role in a late-breaking Best Picture nominee.  That's usually one of the best signs for getting No Globe/No SAG, getting into a movie that is having its moment too late for the Globes & SAG nominations to catch it (keep in mind that Oscar voters tend to vote very close to nominations announcement, oftentimes after both Globe & SAG nominations have already been announced).  If Nickel Boys is one of the final screeners, she will be fresh-in-mind.
Against Her: I do wonder about how strong, exactly, Nickel Boys support is.  Most people are putting this in their Best Picture Top 10's (and it did get a Globe citation for Best Picture), but right now it has no real conversation other than "it's good-you'll like it" (it's not an obvious contender for Best Director or for actually winning Best Picture, for example).  How much will people really go for it?

5. Dennis Quaid (The Substance)

For Him: This list is ranked with #1 being the likeliest, and at this point we're shifting from "could happen" to "COULD happen" and I think maybe the most obvious "duh, of course!" contender from this list if it happens would be Dennis Quaid in The Substance.  The reception at the Globes to The Substance was resounding-they loved the comedy bit between Demi Moore & Margaret Qualley (which you'll only understand if you've seen the film), and Moore solidified her position as the one-to-beat in Best Actress.  Quaid is a longtime Hollywood vet who has never been nominated for an Oscar (which many expected him to for 2002's Far from Heaven, and as we discussed, I thought he should've been).  He has a showy, attention-grabbing role in this movie...could this be his time?
Against Him: Quaid's politics might get in the way here.  Openly Republican, Quaid spent a chunk of the fall campaigning for Donald Trump, which while he may have won the presidential election, did not win the acting branch of the Academy.  Will Oscar want to go there?

4. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

For Him: Maclin's a unique situation of an actor who most expected to not be on this list because he was dominating the year.  Sing Sing is a heavy contender for Best Picture, and if this movie is a favorite of yours for that category, it's hard not to picture Maclin on your ballot-he's the emotional center of the picture, and essential to the acting duet with Colman Domingo.
Against Him: If he wasn't going to get in with SAG, specifically, one wonders if people care that much.  Oscar has a terrible attention span, and Sing Sing opened in the spring.  It's a movie that it's possible people forgot about, and are just name-checking for Picture & Actor because that's where it's scoring in precursors.  Maclin, unlike Colman Domingo, is not a former Oscar nominee & is a name you have to learn...are they not learning it long enough to put him on their ballots?

3. Adriana Paz (Emilia Perez)

For Her: Paz is honestly better-positioned than you'd think.  Though her costars are getting most of the Emilia Perez love, Paz co-won the Cannes Best Actress prize with Saldana, Gascon, & Gomez, and was also longlisted for the BAFTA.  She's arguably the most grounded of the four performers in the film, and coming late into the movie, is maybe the heart of the picture?  There is a lot of love for this movie, which could easily take Best Picture at this rate...surprise acting nominations happen all the time for Best Picture frontrunners.
Against Her: Gomez & Saldana are already big names in this category, and honestly I do wonder how devoted Perez voters will be after already listing three women for the movie.  Also, if you're a detractor of the film (which I am), you're not going to want to give it any love even if you think Paz is the best part of the picture.

2. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

For Her: Best Actress seems to have come down to four names (Gascon, Erivo, Moore, & Madison) that are all expected-but-not-guaranteed (none of them, even Moore, are set-in-stone though I'll be predicting all four in my final predictions next week); a surprise is more-likely than people are considering (it's not rock solid like Best Actor) but we have leaders for four slots.  The fifth slot has a lot of options, but while some have scored in precursors (Kate Winslet, Pamela Anderson, Nicole Kidman), I think it's probably down to either Fernanda Torres or Marianne Jean-Baptiste.  Torres took the Globe, but Jean-Baptiste has clobbered with critics prizes, taking NYFCC, LAFCA, & the National Society of Film Critics, something that generally guarantees an Oscar nomination.  She's also a former nominee, and her film is opening late but given Mike Leigh's reputation with the Academy, is the kind of film that could make it to the top of the pile.
Against Her: The film doesn't have heat in many other categories, and longtime Oscar watchers will remember a different actress (Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky) who dominated critics prizes but couldn't get in for a Mike Leigh movie.  Could history be repeating?

1. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)

For Him: He has everything.  Showy role in a Best Picture frontrunner?  Check.  Longtime supporting actor who has worked with everyone?  Check.  Former nominee so the Oscars already have gone there?  Check!  Tucci also doesn't have internal competition like Fanning or Paz, as the only other actors in Conclave with heat are in other categories.  Tucci is also pimping this film hard, having showed up for the Golden Globes even without a nomination to support the film-people in the industry notice that.
Against Him: On paper, honestly nothing.  Tucci's biggest concern is he hasn't already been a part of the conversation as he's clearly a logical nominee.  Sometimes obvious contenders just don't click, but in keeping with the tradition of this article, I'll probably predict either he or Jean-Baptiste when I finally check in next week as both are very logical last-minute decisions by Oscar.

Monday, November 04, 2024

Election Night Guide: Utah through Wyoming

I am doing a final predictions series for the November 5th general elections.  If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-ArkansasCalifornia-HawaiiIdaho-LouisianaMaine-MontanaNebraska-North Dakota, Ohio-Texas

(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness.  I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)

Utah

President: Similar to Kansas, I do want to see what happens to the margins here.  Utah is the most college-educated state in the nation to go for Donald Trump in 2020, and you would assume that Harris will do better than Biden did as a result of her numbers with college-educated voters, even if she will still lose with them.
Governor: If Utah had midterm elections, I would be more interested in this race.  Gov. Spencer Cox (R) has made a lot of enemies (including Phil Lyman, who ran against him in the Republican primary and has endorsed his Democratic opponent Brian King), and in a less partisan environment, this would be a chance for the Beehive State to finally get a Democratic governor after a drought that goes back to 1980.  However, it's just not going to happen with Trump winning the state by double digits.
Senate: Expect a rightward shift in the Senate seat with Rep. John Curtis taking over for retiring Sen. Mitt Romney.  Romney has always been a bit of an over-hyped moderate (he's not Liz Cheney), but he definitely took some blue votes (like on Trump's impeachment and confirming Ketanji Brown Jackson) that Chuck Schumer won't rely upon with Curtis.

Vermont

President: An easy win for Harris in the bluest state in New England.
Governor: And like all New England states, it seems to fall in love with moderate Republican governors from time-to-time, with Gov. Phil Scott getting reelected to his fifth term as governor.
Senate: Man I wish that Sen. Bernie Sanders, who at 83 is WAY too old to be running for a fourth term, was retiring, but Sanders (like many politicians these days) does not seem to have the grace to give up the spotlight and will easily win another reelection. 

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Virginia

President: The Republicans seem to be in love with running a lot of misinformation about the Old Dominion (there is a persistent rumor right now online that Harris will be throwing cash at her campaign in the state and taking it away from North Carolina, which is categorically untrue).  She should handily take the state, and put those rumors to rest tomorrow.
Senate: She won't win by as much as Sen. Tim Kaine, though, who will hopefully be able to get at least one victory on the same night as the first female president since he couldn't do so 8 years ago.
House: There are two competitive races in Virginia for the US House, but I do think both favor the incumbent party.  For some reason pundits seem to think that VA-7, which is open due to the retirement of Rep. Abigail Spanberger (who is running for the Democratic nomination for governor), is a tossup.  Despite raising gargantuan sums of cash, Eugene Vindman (whose brother Alex was one of the primary reasons that Donald Trump was impeached, as it was based on his testimony) is neck-and-neck with attorney Derrick Anderson, who ran here in 2022.  Vindman has struggled to consolidate support after his primary, but the district went for Joe Biden by 7-points, and will go for Harris-I don't think Anderson is the kind of Republican who can overcome that.  On the flip side, VA-2 is much closer, but also shows a tight race.  If Harris wins by roughly the same margin as Biden did (about 2-points), I think Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) holds on with some crossover votes against a weaker opponent, Democrat Missi Cotter Smasal, but Harris does much more than that Smasal could gain steam.  I'll be honest-if you're looking for a canary-in-the-coal-mine among the earliest states to close the polls: if Trump is having a "sweep the Big 7" kind of night, Anderson probably is winning...if Harris is doing a "sweep the Big 7" night, look for an upset for Smasal.  As I'm predicting neither have a sweep, I'll stay status quo.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA)
Washington

President: Like Chicago is to Illinois, so is Seattle to Washington...both states basically ensure that they remain forever blue in the 21st Century.
Governor: Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is retiring, and while Republicans got their best candidate for this office in a while in former Rep. Dave Reichert, the losing streak that they have suffered for over 40 years will continue on Election Night as Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) wins.
Senate: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D), one of the lowest-profile members of the Senate, will win a fifth term in office.
House: Two years ago, the biggest surprise on Election Night 2022 was the surprise win by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) over businessman Joe Kent.  That was driven by Kent knocking the incumbent Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (who is running for Commissioner of Public Lands and will surely lose) out of office.  Perez was always going to be a challenge to hold this seat, but she has run an impressive campaign.  One big late-breaking wild card in the race is the attacks (presumably by MAGA extremists given it was in the bluest district in the state) on ballot boxes in the district, which might spur some Democrats off of the sidelines to support Perez in solidarity.  But this is a district Trump won by 4-points in 2020, and polling shows he's on pace to do that again.  It will be close, but I think Kent takes the rematch and we go R+1.

West Virginia

President: Once such a reliably blue state that it actually went for Mike Dukakis, West Virginia is the heart of Trump country, and will probably be his biggest statewide margin tomorrow night.
Governor: Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who lost the US Senate race in 2018, will get redemption as he holds the governor's mansion tomorrow night in the Mountain State.
Senate: And tomorrow we will say goodbye to Sen. Joe Manchin (D/I), a man who was a perpetual thorn in the side of Democrats everywhere, but still paved the way for the Inflation Reduction Act, the American Rescue Plan, & Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.  It's entirely possible when he is replaced tomorrow by Gov. Jim Justice, it will be the last time in most of our lifetimes that West Virginia has a Democratic senator. R+1

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Wisconsin

President: And it all comes down to Wisconsin.  The Badger State was the tipping point state in 2020 for Joe Biden, and it looks like our likeliest candidate for tipping point state in 2024.  Both sides are pushing hard here, and both sides have clear strengths and weaknesses.  The biggest issue for the Harris campaign is turning into Milwaukee, an area she will win easily, but where turnout is never as consistent or high as Madison (the other blue bastion in the state).  I am writing this article on October 29th, but I'm going on record as being stunned if Harris does not hit Milwaukee at least one more time before the end of the campaign to get stronger Black turnout.  The biggest issue for Trump, on the other hand, is the Milwaukee suburbs.  Again, this is an area that he will win, but the question is by how much.  The infamous WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, & Washington) have been the bedrock of Republican politics in the state for decades (Trump won them by 23-points in 2020).  But there's a lot of signs that Harris will over-perform in the midwestern suburbs, and there are clear signs of vote cracks in the WOW counties.  Waukesha, the largest of the three, gave Judge Janet Protasiewicz over 40% of the vote in 2023...if Harris got that, she'd have Wisconsin locked up.  I think that Harris's ground game will exceed Trump's clear problems convincing suburban voters to give him a third shot, and she will ultimately win, but not by much.
Senate: I think Sen. Tammy Baldwin will have an easier time, though Wisconsin has reverted to form and while she was once boasting gargantuan leads against businessman Eric Hovde, those have disappeared into a 2-3 point race.  That's probably where this ends, but Baldwin is able to hold the seat.
House: Democrats dropped entirely former Rep. Peter Barca in his comeback bid in WI-1, so don't expect any partisan changes there.  The bigger question is around WI-3, where controversial Rep. Derrick van Orden is in a tight contest with businesswoman Rebecca Cooke.  I think van Orden will under-perform Trump by a point or two given his many dust-ups in DC (and because the DCCC has stayed on the air here for Cooke), so the question becomes how much Harris can gain over Biden.  Both Protasiewicz & Gov. Tony Evers won here, but Ron Johnson did as well so it's a swing seat.  If Harris wins here, so does Cooke...but as I don't think Harris will, I'm going to bet on van Orden...but man do I want to call an upset here though as it feels like one is brewing. 

Wyoming

President: Our final state will be another, final red state landslide for Donald Trump.
Senate: In Wyoming, it's not clear yet whether or not they're just reelecting John Barrasso or if they're reelecting the next Republican leader...but they're certainly giving him a win.

The Lowdown

Governors: With the only flip that I called this year being in New Hampshire, the Democrats will go from 23 to 24 governorships, but will have to wait until 2025 to have a shot at a (tied) majority in Virginia.  No other race is at risk-New Hampshire is really the only question mark.

House: I have tallied it up, and I am going with 220 Democrats in the House to 215 Republicans, which would give Hakeem Jeffries a narrow (but winning) path to the Speaker's gavel.  The Republicans have room here.  A handful of races that I called for Team Blue (AK-AL, AZ-6, CA-27, IA-1, MI-7, MI-8, NY-19, & PA-8 specifically) feel like they are in true tossup territory, and the Republicans would only need to flip a couple of them to get to 218.  On the other hand, even a mild over-performance by Harris (maybe 1-2 points better than the polling averages) would result in 8-10 Republican-predicted seats (the most obvious being AZ-1, CA-45, IA-3, PA-10, WA-3, & WI-3) being in the blue.  I will say of the three big federal branches, the Democrats have the best shot at winning the House in my estimation.

Senate: The final count in the Senate would be 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats, with all of the Senate races matching my guess for the presidential victor.  If the Republicans do better than expected, you could conceivably see them picking off 1-3 of the Blue Wall states (Tammy Baldwin, Elissa Slotkin, & Bob Casey's races)...I don't think winning Nevada or Arizona is in the cards for them.  If the Democrats were to win the Senate, it would involve them matching polling in Ohio (the only true tossup of the bunch), and then it would really come down to them getting a mild upset in either Nebraska, Texas, Montana, or Florida (rated from most to least likely to be the flip).  If one of them flipped, it would be surprising but not insane surprising (i.e. it ain't like Trump winning Oregon levels of crazy), so a trifecta is still possible, but you shouldn't bet on it.  I think therefore it's likely that the next president will become the first POTUS to enter the White House without a trifecta since George HW Bush.

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)
White House:
If you've been following along closely, you know what I did here, but I am, based solely on my predictions, guessing that Vice President Kamala Harris will get exactly 270 electoral votes, the bare minimum she needs to win the White House.  A lot of the last few weeks have felt like the series finale of Donald Trump for President, a series that started with an escalator ride in 2015 that we have been forced to watch for nine years.  Whether or not he ultimately ends up the triumphant dictator at the end or the disgraced two-time loser/convicted felon we'll find out tomorrow (and more likely, into the rest of the week), but there would be a poetic justice in Trump losing the way that most thought he'd lose in 2016-with the Blue Wall holding together and providing just enough cushion to elect the first female president.

This gives me very little room if I'm wrong here.  I do think Harris has staked a lead and has the ground game to get victories in Michigan & Pennsylvania (if she loses either, she wasn't really close to winning in the first place), but Wisconsin feels like it could be where the break in the shields is for the Democrats.  On the flip side, in a world where Michigan/Pennsylvania go blue, she can win without Wisconsin as long as she takes North Carolina, Arizona, or Georgia (Nevada is also a true tossup, but doesn't really matter to the math if she wins PA/MI).  I think there's a real possibility that pollsters are not getting crossover votes in Arizona or end game Black turnout correct in Georgia, and either could end up going blue even if Wisconsin falls (Arizona, especially, feels like pollsters are about to repeat the infamous Katie Hobbs upset they couldn't call in 2022).  My gut for most of October was (similar to Nate Silver's) guessing a Trump victory...the past week (remember, I wrote this on October 29th), has changed my mind, and my gut & head are both guessing Harris.  I don't have confidence in that, I certainly wouldn't bet money on it, but officially it will be my final prediction that she will become the first woman to sit behind the Resolute Desk.

And with that, I will not only end this election night guide, but also this blog.  If you want to keep track of my movie takes, please feel free to follow me at Letterboxd where I promise to keep bringing in a variety of Oscar Viewing Project screenings (and sharing those via lists), as well as continue to watch & track movies old and new.  Otherwise, know that I have loved this blog for 12 years. It has been a place I have shared my passions, my joys, my hopes...and sometimes my fears, my regrets, and my loneliness.  Whether you have been here for one article or most of the 4200, I cannot express enough how much you letting my writing be a part of your life has meant to me.  While I leave it behind, this place has been truly a home when I really, really needed one, and though it is the right time for me to say goodbye, I do so with a longing heart.

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Sunday, November 03, 2024

1957 Oscar Viewing Project

One of the biggest regrets I had with finishing the blog was that I wasn't going to do one last season of ballots for the OVP.  The series that basically started this blog was going to get ignored, and while I cheated a bit by having the Halloween blogathon serve as a "placeholder" for the Oscar Viewing Project goodbye, that wasn't enough.  I'll be honest-October has been really challenging on a personal level (one of the main reasons that I'm ending the blog is because I had a wake up call about my personal life), but I have pushed myself in the past couple of days to finish the four remaining films I hadn't completed from 1957 so that they were done, and I can officially unveil the 27th completed season of the series (a truncated version, as I didn't have the bandwidth to write a full twenty articles, but at least I got something!).  For those who have enjoyed this (including me), I want you to know that I have started to transpose all of the previous OVP winners from past seasons onto my Letterboxd lists, and will continue to do the winners on there going forward, so if you want to continue to see what I'm picking (I'm ending the blog-the Oscar Viewing Project continues to see another day), you can find me here.  My brother is trying to help me figure out the best way to present the My Ballots (I didn't have time to finish that for 1957), but I promise as soon as he figures out a way to do this (he's better at such things than I am), I will continue posting those on Letterboxd as well.  But below, you will find the ranked from first-to-last choices for the 30th Academy Awards.

That's enough shop talk.  Now it's time to go back to an era of Sputnik & the Little Rock Nine, of Althea Gibson & Mamie Eisenhower.  And of course, let's remember the movies...

Picture

1. The Bridge on the River Kwai
2. Witness for the Prosecution
3. 12 Angry Men
4. Sayonara
5. Peyton Place

The Lowdown: The Bridge on the River Kwai has been a part of my life since I can't remember when-it was my grandfather's favorite movie, and one that played in the background (along with Patton and Tora! Tora! Tora!) on repeat after he had a stroke.  The only one of these movies that really approaches its grandeur is Witness for the Prosecution, which honestly is kind of a miracle and the best Christie adaptation I've ever seen.  12 Angry Men is very well-done, and a masterpiece but one that might (unfairly) have lost some luster it's been done so much since, and the other two are handsome-but-dull (Sayonara) or a total snooze (Peyton Place).

Director

1. David Lean (The Bridge on the River Kwai)
2. Billy Wilder (Witness for the Prosecution)
3. Sidney Lumet (12 Angry Men)
4. Joshua Logan (Sayonara)
5. Mark Robson (Peyton Place)

The Lowdown: Even more than the Best Picture field (if you hadn't noticed, these are carbon copies of each other), David Lean takes the lead here.  Oscar Winner Sydney Pollack once said that a director's job is "less artist, more damage containment expert" and that might be what is drawing me to Lean to a degree.  He has the more challenging job, particularly given that Wilder & Lumet are largely staying in the same locations, and are bringing to life staged plays, but it's more than that.  Think of the ending of The Bridge on the River Kwai, having so many storylines come together with staggering precision-you only get that from thinking meticulously, even in a gigantic epic.

Actor

1. Alec Guinness (The Bridge on the River Kwai)
2. Charles Laughton (Witness for the Prosecution)
3. Anthony Franciosa (A Hatful of Rain)
4. Marlon Brando (Sayonara)
5. Anthony Quinn (Wild is the Wind)

The Lowdown: This is entirely down to the British actors (Guinness & Laughton).  Franciosa (who is in lead, Shelley Winters' memory be damned), gives a good performance but is in an underwritten movie, while Brando is a fabulous actor in a stuffed shirt sort of role.  Guinness gets my vote over Laughton primarily because he's playing so specifically to this character.  Laughton's role is appropriately loud-and-boisterous, he's typecast but in the best way possible.  Guinness isn't initially who I would guess in 1957 for this role (he was better known for comic work in movies before this), but that works to his advantage as Colonel Nicholson is a man obsessed, whose madness toward the end as he realizes what he's done is a crucial component to the entirety of Lean's epic.

Actress

1. Anna Magnani (Wild is the Wind)
2. Joanne Woodward (The Three Faces of Eve)
3. Deborah Kerr (Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison)
4. Elizabeth Taylor (Raintree County)
5. Lana Turner (Peyton Place)

The Lowdown: Here's where I'm going to confess something-I have never gotten the hype around Joanne Woodward's performance in The Three Faces of Eve.  I think part of why she got this award (and so many plaudits since) is because it was such a revolutionary idea onscreen-a woman playing three characters in one.  But it isn't as impressive as some of her peers were, and while Woodward is a good actress, this isn't her best work, and she's only as high as she is on this list because this is a weak field.  Magnani stands out more for me-she's a more obvious actor compared to the organic Woodward, but the way she plays this woman is so three-dimensional and felt.  I love it.  Kerr is lovely-but-not-stretched in Heaven Knows, while Taylor & Turner both have their best (sultriest) instinct muted in their dull pictures.

Supporting Actor

1. Sessue Hayakawa (The Bridge on the River Kwai)
2. Red Buttons (Sayonara)
3. Russ Tamblyn (Peyton Place)
4. Arthur Kennedy (Peyton Place)
5. Vittorio de Sica (A Farewell to Arms)

The Lowdown: Hayakawa, at one point a major leading star of the Silent Era, made a comeback with this role very late in his career, and it's easily the best of this quintet.  The way that his Colonel Saito creates a humanizing aspect to his villain is years ahead of what you'd normally expect from such a part, and stands up against what Guinness & Holden are doing.  Buttons' heartbreaking work is a worthy runner-up, and I like that Russ Tamblyn got a nomination here (he's my favorite part of Peyton Place), but Hayakawa is the best choice of the bunch.

Supporting Actress

1. Elsa Lanchester (Witness for the Prosecution)
2. Miyoshi Umeki (Sayonara)
3. Carolyn Jones (The Bachelor Party)
4. Hope Lange (Peyton Place)
5. Diane Varsi (Peyton Place)

The Lowdown: Man is this a rough one.  Given 3/5 of these are in movies that underwhelmed me already, and The Bachelor Party is just an odd picture, thank the lord for Elsa Lanchester.  Her doddering in Witness for the Prosecution is marvelous, and would've made a fine winner (I would've found room for her costar Una O'Connor, and will in my My Ballot).  The rest, though, are uninspired in a field that could've been great had they invested more in musicals in 1957.  Umeki's groundbreaking win isn't the worst thing to happen to this category (there's an understanding in her work that I liked), and seeing Carolyn Jones outside of the Addams mansion is a change of pace, but man...Lanchester is the only truly acceptable winner of the bunch.

Original Screenplay

1. Funny Face
2. The Tin Star
3. I Vitelloni
4. Designing Woman
5. Man of a Thousand Faces

The Lowdown: It's weird, given the weak point of most of Fred Astaire's films is a cobbled together by scotch tape plot, that I'm giving his film this statue.  In a perfect world, you'd probably see a few of the Foreign Language Film nominees included in this lineup, but the only subtitled film of this bunch is Federico Fellini's I Vitelloni, where the screenplay is one of the weakest parts in an otherwise really attractive movie.  Funny Face is well-structured, and if you get past the fact that the 30-year age difference should be more of a plot point (let's be real, though, Fred Astaire & Audrey Hepburn are such ageless figures it's hard to think of them as anything more than ephemeral tricks-of-the-light), the only movie that comes close is The Tin Star, a well-structured morality tale that's admittedly a bit predictable and guided by strong work from Henry Fonda & Anthony Perkins.

Adapted Screenplay

1. The Bridge on the River Kwai
2. 12 Angry Men
3. Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison
4. Sayonara
5. Peyton Place

The Lowdown: The real battle here is between The Bridge on the River Kwai and 12 Angry Men, both impeccable screenplays.  12 Angry Men it's sometimes hard for me to tell if I should dock points for it clearly being a filmed play or if that works onscreen.  Since I can never quite tell, I'm going to go with Bridge, which has a stronger end game, and also manages to tell a lot of subplots without losing focus (harder than it sounds).  Kudos to Heaven Knows in third, particularly in the way that it handles the complicated (for 1957) romantic angles of the story that otherwise could've been abandoned by a different writer.

Foreign Language Film

1. Nights of Cabiria (Italy)
2. Gates of Paris (France)
3. The Devil Strikes at Night (Germany)
4. Nine Lives (Norway)
5. Mother India (India)

The Lowdown: In the early years of this category, you'd get masterpieces from renowned filmmakers like Fellini, which makes it really hard to judge in some ways because how do you compete with something like Nights of Cabiria, one of the all-time great pictures and featuring a beautiful performance from Giuletta Massini?  It's a pity, though, as there's some treasure trove films here too.  Gates of Paris is a wonderfully dark French crime film (with a romantic subplot that'll rip your heart out), while The Devil Strikes at Night gives you a really strong look at the rise of fascism from a film noir perspective. The only one of the bunch I couldn't get into was the unfathomably long Mother India, a well-regarded Bollywood picture that was at least two hours too long.

Score

1. The Bridge on the River Kwai
2. An Affair to Remember
3. Raintree County
4. Boy on a Dolphin
5. Perri

The Lowdown: Any of the Top 3 here would be a worthy prize (Boy on the Dolphin feels like it got nominated based on the composer, and Perri ranks as one of the sillier films to ever be cited for an Academy Award since it's just a children's nature documentary about a squirrel).  Even with the most famous cut of the score being a non-original piece (the "Colonel Bogey's March" is not original to the picture), I think that Bridge does the most with its music, and it will get my nod.  Either Affair or Raintree would make good choices, though, both of them lush & filled with a lot of romance (I'm still finalizing my My Ballot Awards, as I mentioned above, but as of this writing all three of these films would make my nominees).

Original Song

1. "Wild is the Wind" (Wild is the Wind)
2. "All the Way," (The Joker is Wild)
3. "An Affair to Remember," (An Affair to Remember)
4. "Tammy," (Tammy and the Bachelor)
5. "April Love," (April Love)

The Lowdown: A genuinely terrific group of songs-there's not a bad one in the bunch, and in many cases, we're getting some big-deal singers' signature tunes.  The Top 3, in particular, is pretty immovable, and my pick of "Wild is the Wind" might be a little cheat given my favorite version of the song is by Nina Simone (not, as sung in the movie, by Johnny Mathis, though Mathis is also marvelous).  It's such a creepy love ballad.  Sinatra's classic "All the Way" and Marni Nixon belting out the standard "An Affair to Remember" (through Deborah Kerr) are totally acceptable answers here too, though.

Sound

1. Pal Joey
2. Witness for the Prosecution
3. Sayonara
4. Les Girls
5. Gunfight at the OK Corral

The Lowdown: I will be honest-every single one of these films will be getting replaced when I do my My Ballot.  That's not to say there isn't good stuff happening (Pal Joey has some solid musical numbers and the dialogue is crisp, Witness has the great final courtroom scene & Marlene singing), but nothing here stands out in a big way.  The shootout in Gunfight, for example, is a disappointment (the best part of it is the Frankie Lane title song), and Les Girls is a great movie, but not one that has a lot of super memorable musical numbers (it works better on its plot).  The Bridge on the River Kwai is clearly missing.

Art Direction

1. Les Girls
2. Funny Face
3. Raintree County
4. Sayonara
5. Pal Joey

The Lowdown: Gorgeous sets abound here, but in particular for the Top 2 (in another year Raintree County's elaborate and epic southern looks would be a serious contender for the win, here it has to settle for the bronze).  I'm going to go with Les Girls for the statue because it plays more with the beautiful looks of Paris than Funny Face does, and the sets have a bit more color and personality, but honestly they're both so good this is splitting hairs.

Cinematography

1. Funny Face
2. An Affair to Remember
3. The Bridge on the River Kwai
4. Sayonara
5. Peyton Place

The Lowdown: This one comes down to the romances for me-this is the one area where I think Bridge is good but isn't necessarily breaking the bank except for the final sequence, and so I'd put this between Affair and Funny Face.  Funny Face probably benefits a bit from its plot-there film is literally about catching the exact right photo of Audrey Hepburn, and you get gorgeous scenes and fashion shots of her to accompany that.  I do like the intercontinental glamour and radiant CinemaScope beauty of An Affair to Remember, but if forced to pick, I'd end with Funny Face.

Costume Design

1. Funny Face
2. Les Girls
3. Raintree County
4. An Affair to Remember
5. Pal Joey

The Lowdown: With costume design, sometimes you get contests where you were never going to win.  There are really good nominees in this category (for my money, the best lineup Oscar pulled together in 1957), and some are extraordinary.  That exquisite orange & white dress Deborah Kerr wears in An Affair to Remember, the plunging bodices sported by a never-more-beautiful Elizabeth Taylor in Raintree County, the monochromatic swimsuits & matching chapeaus of Les Girls...all grand.  But when Audrey Hepburn in a strapless scarlet dress & matching scarf walks down the steps of the Louvre in Funny Face...that's what makes movies, movies-it simply has to win.

Film Editing

1. The Bridge on the River Kwai
2. Witness for the Prosecution
3. Gunfight at the OK Corral
4. Pal Joey
5. Sayonara

The Lowdown: I feel like too many of these categories are Bridge on the River Kwai facing off against Witness for the Prosecution with the latter coming up short.  This is true here, even though it's close-Bridge sometimes sags in the middle (maybe its weakest aspect even if the beginning and end are so well-conceived), and you can't deny that Witness builds its tension masterfully.  Still, the ending of Bridge is just too good to ignore, and neither Marlene Dietrich or Dennis Hopper's very effective final scene in Gunfight at the OK Corral can really compete with it.

Special Effects

1. The Spirit of St. Louis
2. The Enemy Below

The Lowdown: Our only category with only two nominees in the bunch, this is a battle between two war pictures.  The Spirit of St. Louis is really impressive when you keep in mind this is a special effects category, and so therefore the plane stunt effects and trick flying should be part of your calculation.  It helps that Jimmy Stewart was a pilot in WWII and actually knows what he was doing.  The Enemy Below is both a lesser movie, and honestly has lesser effects by comparison (Lindbergh gets my win).  It's not bad-the water effects toward the end all are strong & believable in a world without CGI, but it's nothing you wouldn't see in a dozen other war films of the era.