I am doing a final predictions series for the November 5th general elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Idaho-Louisiana, Maine-Montana, Nebraska-North Dakota
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) |
President: At one point in time, the biggest question in American politics every presidential cycle was "who would win Ohio?" From LBJ in 1964 through Donald Trump in 2016, the state correctly voted with the victor of the electoral college every single time. But like so many things in American politics, Donald Trump smashed that too, and while Trump might win the electoral college, it won't be because Ohio is a bellwether...it'll be because it's a red state.
Senate: Which brings us to the most consequential Senate election on the map. Most pundits have given up on the prospect of the Democrats winning back the Senate, because trying to hold at least two of the three Democrats in Trump 2020 states is just too hard. But a lot have been willing to buy that the left might hold one of the seats, and that would be Ohio's. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has run a remarkable campaign, and was helped by the Republicans putting up a lousy candidate (businessman Bernie Moreno, who initially ran for the Senate in 2022 but dropped out at Donald Trump's behest). Brown has led in most public polling, and if polling was the only thing I was going by, I would be predicting him. But Moreno is closing very well, and while Brown is above 50% in some matchups...I've been to this dance too many times before not to be jaded. I'm going to predict an upset and for Ohio to go R+1. If I am wrong, it may not matter in 2024 for the majority, but I suspect it will matter in 2026 or 2028, which are much easier maps for the Democrats to gain a seat or two, and Brown will provide buffer to Ron Johnson/Susan Collins.
House: In Ohio, there are essentially two races that merit interest (I think Greg Landsman is unbeatable in a presidential year given he's in a Biden 8-point district). The first is Emilia Sykes (D), who is running in a Biden 3-point district near Akron. Sykes is a first-term incumbent, but she's still an incumbent in a district that Harris should hold...I don't think she's ultimately at risk, though the Democrats are wise to invest here. The second seat is Rep. Marcy Kaptur's in Toledo. Kaptur is the longest-serving woman in congressional history, but is running in a red district (Trump won it by 3-points). I think Kaptur should be fine; the Republicans seem to have given up on beating her in the same way that Democrats have Brian Fitzpatrick, and her opponent is weak by comparison. It's worth noting that if Issue 1 passes in Ohio, it will mean the gerrymandered Buckeye State will have much fairer maps in 2026; if that happens, (assuming they win) Kaptur & Sykes will have easier races in 2026, and the Ohio congressional delegation will inevitably get bluer.
Oklahoma
President: There is a real possibility that Kamala Harris does something in Oklahoma that Joe Biden didn't in 2000-take Oklahoma County. This has become something of a David-and-Goliath story for Sooner State Democrats that ultimately won't matter (Trump will win the state), but the Republican Mayor of Oklahoma City endorsed for a reason-one of the few states where Biden couldn't carry a single county (West Virginia was the other) could have a touch of blue in 2024.
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| State Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR) |
President: The cavalry will come in on the West Coast for Harris, as all three of our contiguous West Coast states will be blue. The question will be if they will be enough by that point in the night.
House: In 2022, the DCCC royally-screwed up in the final days, abandoning the clearly winnable 5th district of Oregon (in my opinion) because it featured Jamie McLeod-Skinner, a two-time loser at that point who had beaten an incumbent Democrat in the primaries, and the DCCC didn't want to waste money on a race they could get someone they wanted more in 2024. That likely resulted in a Dem House loss in 2022, but it does mean that the DCCC could get their wish in 2024. McLeod-Skinner ran in the primary but lost badly (now she's a four-time loser), and was beaten by Janelle Bynum, a State Representative from the district who has beaten incumbent Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in two past contests for the State House. Chavez-DeRemer was always going to be an underdog given Biden won this (admittedly gerrymandered) district that includes parts of blue Portland & Bend by 9-points, but against Bynum...she's a goner. D+1
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| Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) |
President: We are getting to what was, initially, the single most important state and indeed, Pennsylvania will be hallowed ground on election night even if I kind of think the "tipping point" state has shifted in recent weeks (in polls, vibes, and early voting numbers) to being another Blue Wall State (Wisconsin). That said, this is a very important state, one that both sides have sunk an ungodly half a billion dollars into as of October 24th (and don't think the money train stopped after that was released to the press). The big question here is around how Trump flips the state in a way that he couldn't in 2020. That likely means getting more votes out of the redder parts of the state (something the Harris campaign, with the help of Sen. John Fetterman in particular, is trying to counter), but it also means he can't hemorrhage too many more votes around the Philadelphia suburbs. The problem is that the suburbs like Harris, and they don't want four more years of Trump. I'll be real-Pennsylvania is the state that I think points out the most clearly how partisanship was never going to be enough for Biden to get a win, as I don't think that he would've won here against Trump even though it'd be close...but I think that Kamala Harris will. This will be tight (it won't be called on Election Day), but I will be predicting Harris to win the Keystone State in 2024, the most important state for her electoral college math.
Senate: Sen. Bob Casey (D) has seen his margin against Dave McCormick (R) slim since August. This was inevitable in an era of no ticket splitting, and where Republicans have thrown gargantuan sums of money to help McCormick take down the popular Casey. But Casey should outrun Harris by (at least) a few points, and if I'm predicting Harris to win, he will take it, I will confess by a smaller margin than I would've assumed this summer.
House: A couple things to get out of the way. I think Chris Deluzio (17th) and Susan Wild (7th) are fine, even if Wild in particular will be in a close race that might not be called until the day after the election. I actually think Republican Brian Fitzpatrick (who won by 10-points in 2022 in a 5-point Biden district) will be closer than we expect given the increased partisanship in the United States right now, but he will also win at the end of the day. The two contests that I'm genuinely curious about are the 8th and 10th. The 8th features Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), a moderate who pulled off a slim victory in this Trump +3 district in 2022. Cartwright has been able to stop the clock a few times now, but you can't outrun partisanship forever, and this district is not going to go for Harris on Election Day. On the flip side, the 10th district is going to stay with Trump (he won it by 4-points in 2020), but Rep. Scott Perry (R) has attracted so much controversy, and as the only member of the Freedom Caucus to be in a truly competitive race, this is a victory Democrats want badly so they can prove you can beat MAGA Republicans on their own turf. It's also worth noting that newscaster Janelle Stelson (D) has run one of the best campaigns of the cycle against Perry. I flirted with tossing out both Cartwright & Perry (I think they're both vulnerable), but I'm going to go with the safe answer since I can't decide which to guess goes down, and assume neither loses.
Rhode Island
President: The Ocean State's four electoral votes will be appropriately blue for Kamala Harris.
Senate: Another one of those Senate elections where you have to double check if there's a race, and indeed Sheldon Whitehouse will get a fourth term in a few days.
South Carolina
President: Despite Georgia to the South & North Carolina to the North flirting with blue status, South Carolina proves that the East Coast is not becoming the West Coast-it will stay very red.
South Dakota
President: Kristi Noem will deliver Donald Trump three more electoral votes in the Mount Rushmore State (let's just hope she doesn't have to hurt any dogs to do it).
Tennessee
President: The Volunteer State is too rural for Harris numbers in Memphis & Nashville to counteract it. If the Democrats get a trifecta, though, I would assume gerrymandering legislation would have an impact on Tennessee long-term in the House, as their congressional delegation with only one Democrat is a crime.
Senate: Sen. Marsha Blackburn should beat State Sen. Gloria Johnson (one of the famed Tennessee Three) handily, but I have to applaud Johnson for being a real candidate running in a red seat against someone as heinous as Blackburn. We need more of that.
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| Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) |
President: This is probably the last presidential election for a while where we won't see significant amounts of money spent by both sides on winning the White House in Texas. Biden only lost this state by 6-points, and there is a very real possibility that Harris could match (or even beat) that. The national environment (and in particular Biden's unpopularity) make an upset in 2024 unlikely here, but I would assume in 2028 both sides will start to spend real cash in the Lone Star State.
Senate: Kamala Harris wasn't wasting her time in Houston just to see Beyonce...she just wasn't there for herself. I have complained a few times in these articles about the DCCC not spending enough cash for my taste in some key races. The DSCC is not immune to criticism, though, and that should be levied in Texas. While they are shoveling millions into races like Maryland & Arizona (which are not flipping), they have ignored Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D) is in a close race against Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Cruz is favored, and I will be predicting him, but I want to point out that Allred has positioned himself as a real counter option, and could get just as close as Beto O'Rourke's surprisingly impressive 2018 run. Chuck Schumer has to start opening up more states-he cannot put the pressure on the 2020 Biden states to deliver all of his majority, especially in a world with Susan Collins & Ron Johnson. Texas is the place to do that-he should've invested harder here even if he knew it was a longshot.
House: Three quick notes. I do not anticipate that Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar (28th) and Vicente Gonzalez (34th) are going to be vulnerable, but Harris will win these seats by a smaller margin than Biden did (possibly by a lot smaller), and so I would watch these even though they should be fine. On the flip side, Rep. Monica de la Cruz (15th) is in a rematch in a district Trump barely won in 2020, but again...she should be fine, I'd just have this on your radar.
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