I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd presidential elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Georgia, Hawaii-Louisiana
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for President, Governor, & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) |
President: Maine is one of two states that splits its electoral college votes by congressional district. Statewide, Biden should take this (despite some warning signs four years ago for Democrats, right now it appears Hillary's performance is more the floor than the ceiling, and she won the state in 2016), but Maine's 2nd congressional district is considerably more conservative than the rest of the state, and as a result went for Trump four years ago. I honestly don't know which direction it's going to go, because Maine now also has Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV), which means if neither Trump nor Biden gets 50%, it will go to a runoff to get this electoral vote. My gut says that Trump wins here, though polling is very tight & it's possible this ends up being a question of whom third party candidates favor. I'm going with Trump again, but if Biden wins this seat (it'll be very early in the night), it could be the canary-in-the-coal-mine for the Trump campaign.
Senate: No Senate election has been the focus of more press in the past four years than Sen. Susan Collins' reelection race. Collins has gone from being one of the most beloved figures in the US Senate to repeatedly mocked on social media for her indecision on major actions within the Trump administration. It's possible were it not for her Brett Kavanaugh vote that Collins might have won reelection (I think she badly misjudged her popularity, assuming her primary race was where she was most vulnerable rather than the general), but the day she made that decision, she probably lost her race in the still-blue Maine. House Speaker Sara Gideon has led Collins (once deemed unbeatable) in virtually every poll this year, and like her hero Margaret Chase Smith before her, Collins will lose attempting to win a fifth term. D+1
House: Rep. Jared Golden (D), who represents the 2nd district, only won his last term thanks to RCV, but this time he seems to be popular enough that he'll be able to withstand up-ballot wins from Trump or Collins in his district, and should hold this seat.
Maryland
President: Maryland is one of the bluest states in the country, and will be one of Biden's quickest victories on election night.
Massachusetts
President: Another easy victory for Biden, as Boston provides him even more cover for a major win in the Bay State.
Senate: Remember just a few months ago when the whole political world was obsessed with the Massachusetts Senate Primary? Well, technically Ed Markey needs to win one more race before he gets a third term in office, but he'll have less trouble getting this victory.
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| John James (R-MI) |
President: Okay, now we're back in the competitive presidential race mode. One of the "Big 6," Michigan has been poised ever since 2016 as the state most likely to flip back to the Democrats. Part of the reason for that is while Pennsylvania & Wisconsin really only have two major metro areas as their bases (Philadelphia/Pittsburgh, Madison/Milwaukee), Michigan has a lot of large 100k+ cities outside of the Detroit metro area (Grand Rapids, Ann Arbor, Flint, Lansing) that can help bolster even if Detroit turnout is slightly slumped (which early indications are it won't be). As a result, this is the seat I'm most confident Biden will take back (so D+1), and if he doesn't there's no path to him winning the White House.
Senate: Republicans by-and-large have run unimpressive campaigns for the Senate this year. That doesn't mean they're going to lose, but very few exceeded expectations. That's not the case, though, for businessman John James (R), who ran a closer-than-expected race against Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2018, and is attempting to win a seat against Sen. Gary Peters. James is clearly a solid politician, and in a more neutral environment my money would be on him over Peters (Peters has run a lousy campaign). However, national environment can oftentimes overcome the deficits of a candidate, and Peters will be able to rely upon Biden winning his state by a solid margin, enough so that he'll win a second term. As a result, James will go from rising star to two-time loser overnight, and probably see his electoral career vanish.
House: Two years after they won R-held seats, both Elissa Slotkin & Haley Stevens appear to be Democratic holds with little Republican interest in taking them on in districts Biden's likely to win. Democrats thought at one point that Rep. Fred Upton (the 6th) might join them, but their candidate has been a disappointment, and the GOP should hold this seat. The big question is the 3rd district. Here either party is trying for a pickup (the incumbent is Republican-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash, who is retiring), and both Pete Meijer (R, and yes, of the Meijer grocery fortune) & former Obama administration attorney Hillary Scholten (D) have claimed a lead in internal polling. There's been little non-partisan looks at this district, and so I'm going to go with who I think will win the top-of-the-ticket (that'd be Meijer), though it's possible Scholten is able to get enough blue voters in Grand Rapids to make up for Meijer's rural advantage. As a result, this is an R+1 seat, though not a Democratic loss.
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| Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN) |
President: Four years ago, it looked like Donald Trump might have finally found a message to winning the Gopher State, holding Hillary Clinton to a two-point victory. But Minnesota seems a reach-too-far for a president that can't also nail-down Michigan or Wisconsin, and so Biden should extend the Democrats' winning streak for another four years here, though it's worth noting he'll do so in the Twin Cities' suburbs, rather than in the Iron Range like many of his predecessors.
Senate: Sen. Tina Smith faces voters for the fourth time in two years on November 3rd, and should feel comfortable in knowing she'll continue her 100% batting average, and not have to campaign again until 2026.
House: The death of a third-party candidate in the second district upended Angie Craig's march to victory, but it appears (right now) that a quirk in Minnesota election law won't prevent the election from taking place on November 3rd (though court cases are still pending), so for now we'll keep that a Democratic hold. The same cannot be said for her colleague Rep. Collin Peterson (D) in the 7th district (the district of my home town!), where Peterson is facing former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach (R) for a 16th term. Peterson is something of a magician (he somehow won a district that Trump won by 30-points), but I think straight-ticket voting will cost him this year and he'll go R+1. This could be countered in the first district, where Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn has made a number of missteps in his first term, though he's helped by an increasingly conservative rural community in his district. Democrat Dan Feehan could win, and don't be surprised if he does, but I'm predicting Hagedorn here as I suspect Trump will win this district (even with Rochester trending blue), and it's very hard to oust an incumbent if their presidential candidate is also winning the district.
Mississippi
President: Biden has made inroads in the South this year that might yield a surprise win or two, but it won't be in Mississippi, where Trump should get another victory.
Senate: A rematch of the 2018 special election should result in virtually the same result-Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) beating Rep. Mike Espy (D) by roughly 9-points.
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| Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO) |
President: Some have claimed in a landslide victory that Biden will put this into play, but I'm not buying that Biden has that much landslide in him this year, so give this former swing state to Trump.
Governor: If the Democrats have a governor's race they want more than anything, it's Missouri. Gov. Mike Parson's response to the Covid crisis has been heavily criticized, as has been his preemptive pardon for Mark & Patricia McCloskey. But this is still a red state, and it doesn't quite feel like State Auditor Nicole Galloway will pull this off...though it's at least worth mentioning if Biden is doing better-than-expected.
House: If straight-ticket voting is going to be in fashion on November 3rd, a titan of Missouri politics appears to be at risk. Rep. Ann Wagner (R) has been in Congress for years (and before that served as both state chair and in the second Bush administration), and is one of the best fundraisers in the GOP. However, her second district comprises much of the St. Louis suburbs, and Republicans representing suburban districts are in trouble in 2020. This is particularly true for Wagner, who represents a district that Sen. Claire McCaskill won in 2018 despite losing statewide. State Sen. Jill Schupp (D) seems to be in the right place & right time, and with Biden a probable statewide winner here, I'm calling it for Schupp. Wagner turned down a race against McCaskill in 2018 (when she had a clear shot at the nomination), and so rather than being a sitting senator in 2021, she's likely to be a lobbyist as a result of that apprehension. D+1
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| Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) |
President: One of the most independent-leaning states in the country, Montana is also not averse to ticket-splitting, and also doesn't seem to like Trump all that much...but a smaller victory is still a victory, so I'm keeping this red at the presidential level.
Governor: Montana is one of only two states that has competitive races for president, governor, senator, and the House (along with North Carolina), but the governor's race seems like the likeliest flip, as Democrats have held the office for sixteen years, and even though Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) isn't super popular, he represents a change & so we're likely to see a GOP flip here. R+1
Senate: The only thing for certain in Montana's race between Sen. Steve Daines (R) and Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is that Steve will win. A nail-biter of a race, Bullock appears to be more popular, but the "D" behind his name is costing him in polls, which show Daines up by 1-3 points on average. That's enough for me to call this for Daines, but again (and I know this is a recurring refrain, but it bears repeating), if Biden can pull off a slightly bigger margin on Election Day, this is a seat the Democrats could flip as Montana has a genuine fondness for sending Democratic senators to Washington even as they elect Republicans to the presidency.
House: The weird thing here is that the Democrats seem to have the best chance (on-paper) of flipping the House seat, pitting State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) against former State Rep. Kathleen Williams (D). Both candidates lost statewide in 2018 (Rosendale to Sen. Jon Tester, Williams to Gianforte), and polls show a tight race. Again, I'm going to defer to the presidency here and pick Rosendale, but one has to wonder if Democrats will really lose all four close races-it does feel like a state as equipped to ticket-split as much as Montana might do so, but I can't tell with confidence where so I'll predict a red sweep.
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