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| President Donald Trump (R-FL) and Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
As a result, we're going to see some shifts on this list. Biden joining the ticket I think helps a bit in some of the emerging swing states, and takes some of the pressure off in the few vulnerable Hillary Clinton states. As we count down here, note that this is not, like our other "State Of..." races where the seat most likely to flip is #1, but instead the state I think is most likely to be the one that decides "who gets to 270?"-who is the tipping point state?
Honorable Mention: There are a few states worth mentioning here, as I could currently see them at least plausibly getting on this list. Perhaps the biggest single win for Democrats with Joe Biden being on the ticket is in Maine. This is a state that Hillary won by less than 3-points, and fits into Trump's demographics (more rural than you'd think, predominantly white, no major metropolitan area), but Trump is wildly unpopular there, with a 36% approval rating, and Biden (moderate, white, folksy) kind of fits the M.O. of what Maine voters want. Honestly-with a 36% approval rating, one has to wonder if Maine-2's electoral vote might be up-for-grabs again (it's #11 on this list, for those keeping track), even if this region even more so fits Trump's demographics (would love to see a matchup poll of just this seat). The other state I'm curious about is Texas. I think Texas is a reach state, and it's not going to be the state that delivers 270...but it might be a state that flips. The big question in Texas (and also why I put MJ Hegar on our list last week over races in Georgia which are considered more conventionally competitive) is if Beto O'Rourke was the ceiling for the future, or if he actually proved that his margin could be the floor. If the Texas suburbs go hard-blue again, this could be the year "Purple Texas" becomes a thing. But I need more evidence before proclaiming that.
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| Biden with NH Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (left) and Maggie Hassan |
I'm moving New Hampshire down on the list for the same reason Maine feels safer-Biden's presence as a moderate Democrat is going to help with the historically libertarian New Hampshire. Biden leads in most matchup polls in the state, albeit by single-digits, but perhaps the most telling sign for Trump's limited chances here is that the Republicans aren't putting up a plausible race for the Senate (Jeanne Shaheen is going up against third-rate competitors), while Democrats are putting up a solid option for Governor, even though Gov. Chris Sununu remains quite popular. That confidence in the top-of-the-ticket (and the coattails that might come with it, and lord does New Hampshire love its coattails), is why I'd still bet on Biden over Trump here, though the demographics of the state and Hillary's middling performance here four years ago keeps it on my radar. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| President Trump with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds |
Iowa is unique in a lot of ways on this list. For starters, it's one of the rare contests on this list where Trump is definitely ahead in the aggregate polling-Biden has not led Trump in a poll in the Hawkeye State in over a year. What makes me keep this on the list (because pragmatically there are other more competitive states, specifically Texas, that deserve this spot) are a couple of things. For starters, Iowa was more than willing to vote for Obama not that long ago, and last year gave the Democrats a very strong performance, winning 75% of the House seats and nearly the governor's mansion. Combined with the region being disproportionately affected by the trade wars of President Trump, a mountain of cash going to the Senate race (and for Democrats to retain those three House seats), and a governor who has not won plaudits from experts over her handling of the COVID pandemic (though who knows how that will affect her approval ratings), and you have the makings of a contest that could be competitive (this isn't Ohio yet), at least in 2020. I also think Biden's abysmal performance in the caucuses didn't help him, though that should rebound. If Biden doesn't have a better approval rating here soon, I will drop this from the list for something that is taking more on-paper, but for now I'm sticking with my gut that Iowa could be closer-than-expected. (Previous Ranking: 9)
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| Biden with MN Senator Amy Klobuchar |
Minnesota is the highest-ranking state on this list that I think Trump can play offense in, and it's staying on this list for a few reasons. For starters, unlike New Hampshire, the Republicans recruited a well-connected candidate for Senate here (though they haven't thrown him much money yet). Secondly, this state was very close for Clinton in 2016-she won it by less-than-two-points, and again, this fits Trump's mold-it's predominantly white, rural, and a similar demographic to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, all of which swung for him four years ago. Trump has to prove himself here though. Biden won decisively in the primary, and (limited) polling shows Biden in great shape; it's worth noting that Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, & Elizabeth Warren all were leading here by a solid amount during the primaries, maybe proving that it's an "anyone but Trump" state, which will be difficult for the president to overcome. Minnesota is a state that Democrats ignore at their peril-particularly if they start relying on states like Arizona & North Carolina as an insurance policy against Wisconsin, they shouldn't take this for granted. But Biden would be considered at least somewhat of a leader at this juncture. (Previous Ranking: 10)
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| Trump with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis |
Florida is a strange state, compromised of what is basically the equivalent of California politically in certain parts of the state (bright-blue Miami) and then in the panhandle you have Alabama. It is a quintessential swing state, and the fact that it's moving down this list is not necessarily reflective of it being non-competitive, but more because I think that the Democrats have gained ground to the point where they might not "need" Florida (though they'd surely like to have it). In Trump's corner are Ron DeSantis & Rick Scott; last year, even in a rough midterm for the president, these men won. Democrats in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (the other three states that Hillary nearly won in 2016-all of these races she lost by less than 2-points) went hard for Democrats, electing all of their candidates for governor & the Senate, but Florida left them with marginal heartbreak. Florida generally swings right, and occasionally picks the left. As a result, even with Biden slightly leading in polls I'd still favor Trump here...but Nikki Fried last year proved Democrats aren't extinct statewide, and like I said, Biden does still lead in polls. Watch to see if Ron DeSantis' treatment of the COVID crisis poisons the full GOP brand here or not, but right now I'd rather be Trump than Biden in the Sunshine State. (Previous Ranking: 6)
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| Trump with Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts |
Is it weird that this is the seat I consider possibly the biggest tossup on this list? One of the reasons that Nebraska-2 isn't higher isn't because it's not a tossup (it surely is), but because it's next-to-impossible for it to be State 270 (it is, however, entirely plausible as State 269, so ignore it at your doom). I suspect that if Nebraska-2 does swing Biden that the conservative state legislature will either gerrymander it or get rid of the congressionally-apportioned electoral votes in the near future, but neither of those are on the table this year, and the Democrats showed in 2016 and 2018 (when Clinton and both House candidates in the respective years lost by 2-points or less) that a national headwind could swing this district. You could make a sincere argument that, had the Democrats taken Kara Eastman more seriously in 2018, she'd be in the House right now (Eastman lost by 2-points, but she had little funding after she beat the DCCC-preferred candidate) something that won't be the case this year. This seat is trending blue, and if 2020 is doing the same, there's no reason to assume that both Biden & the Democratic nominee (perhaps Eastman again) won't have checkmarks by their name. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Biden with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer |
Now we're getting to the seats that seem like they'll flip. Michigan is in a weird state of flux right now. It's entirely possible that Gov. Whitmer's approval ratings start to plummet (particularly if people start to think her actions are hurting the economy more than helping save lives, which is a talking point the GOP is pushing hard here), but her work during the coronavirus has given her approval ratings as high as 80-percent, and that's with Donald Trump relentlessly attacking her in his press briefings and on Twitter. That Whitmer has proven teflon makes her a plausible candidate for vice president (though I doubt she'd be willing to leave her current perch in the middle of a crisis), but her early endorsement of Joe Biden might rub some goodwill off on Biden, and he doesn't need a lot of it. Michigan was solidly blue in 2018 (with Democrats even winning the Secretary of State and Attorney General's offices for the first time in decades), and barely went for Trump in 2016; I've maintained that if Democrats knew Michigan could go red, they could have prevented it going red. Don't take anything for granted, but Michigan remains the state that Trump has the worst hold in from what he won in 2016, and his behavior there during the coronavirus pandemic has only further damaged his chances at retaining it. (Previous Ranking: 3)
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| Biden with Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey |
Pennsylvania is not much further behind Michigan for states that Biden could clean up. Trump has not done as much damage in this state as he has with Michigan. For whatever reason, he has not lobbed attacks against Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf to the same degree as Whitmer, and this state still has a lot of opportunity for him, particularly the central swath of the region, which is getting redder by the day. The problem is that the Democrats can still win the state with only strength in Philadelphia and its suburbs, and 2018 proved that Democrats have that kind of strength when they delivered easy victories statewide for Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey. Midterms can occasionally be a mirage (Republicans picked up governors' mansions in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maine, New Mexico, Florida, Iowa, & Ohio in 2010...Barack Obama would win every one of these states two years later), so Democrats shouldn't count too ferociously on 2018, but Biden's polling in Pennsylvania is solid (he's so far outrunning Hillary by a couple of points, more than enough to overcome a polling gap similar to 2016), and he's got favorite son status if he can beat that drum hard enough (the boy from Scranton). It's a tossup, but this is the inverse of Florida-I'd rather be Biden here. (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| Trump with North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis |
If my predictions above are correct, Joe Biden would need just one of the following three states to get to 270 (above, depending on NE-2, he'd be at either 268 or 269 votes in the electoral college). North Carolina could prove for elections analysts an early night if it goes for Biden, and it's possible it will. Republicans down-ballot are doing atrociously here. Gov. Roy Cooper continues to stay ahead of the pack in his quest for reelection, and Sen. Thom Tillis is underwater in most polling against State Sen. Cal Cunningham. The problem for Biden is that this hasn't affected Trump to the same degree. Cooper also won in 2016 while the Democratic nominee for POTUS lost, and Tillis is one of several Senate candidates this cycle (along with Martha McSally, Kris Kobach, and potentially Joni Ernst) who might well under-perform Trump at the ballot box. Aggregate polling indicates you'd probably just want to be Biden here, but this is a state that Obama couldn't win in 2012, and has a lot of rural communities to counter-act Charlotte & Raleigh. Honestly-this is a true tossup, and one that Democrats are going to be watching like a hawk, not just for Biden, but also to see what happens to Cooper & Tillis. (Previous Ranking: 5)
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| Biden with Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin |
I'm moving Wisconsin down the list not because it's not competitive, but because I think Joe Biden has a better shot of winning the #1 state than this one, and since he only needs one of the Top 3 states to win the White House, mathematically the state of the Top 3 he has the best shot at winning is axiomatically "State 270." Wisconsin, though, is a prize both parties want, it's just that this is likely a seat that Trump needs a bit more than Biden; without it, he has to pull off Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Minnesota, all of which are a further reach. Democrats shouldn't read too much into the recent victory by Jill Karofsky, considering all of the extenuating circumstances of that election, except that it's further proof that they can still win here (just like in 2018 with Gov. Tony Evers & Sen. Tammy Baldwin). Republicans can take solace in the fact that Evers barely won in 2018, even with a strong Democratic wind at their back (counter point: Evers was not a particularly strong candidate, and Scott Walker still lost to him despite three statewide victories previously). All-in-all, Wisconsin is a true tossup, a state that both parties would do well to start pushing hard for absentee ballots in now, as every single vote is going to matter come November. Expect a photo finish. (Previous Ranking: 1)
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| Trump with Arizona Senator Martha McSally |
We have a new #1 on this list. There's a lot of argument for keeping Wisconsin #1, but hear me out as to why I think Arizona is a better bet for Biden to at least cross the finish line, and become this year's Tipping Point State. Democrats won not just the Senate race in 2018, they also won the Secretary of State's office, the State Superintendent, and won a seat on the Statewide Corporate Commission; this is a lot considering they held no other statewide offices prior to 2018, and hadn't in years. Mark Kelly (D) continues to just destroy Martha McSally, both in the polls for their Senate contest and in terms of fundraising. The money he spends to GOTV could be crucial for Biden-it's rare for a down-ballot candidate to help the top-of-the-ticket, but if there's ever a circumstance where it could happen, Kelly is definitely the candidate to do it. Plus, Biden's polling here is better than it is in Wisconsin. Trump has not led in a matchup against Biden since December, and some polls in the past month show Biden up by 8-9 points. This is still Arizona, a state that hasn't gone blue for POTUS since the 1990's, but it's turned purple at an astonishing rate, and Biden might be able to capitalize on that to win the White House. In fact, if he wins this state, that's almost certainly what just happened. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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