But it's been over six months, and while the rankings here are barely shifting (the Top 6 remains stagnant), what has changed is the candidates. Senate races, unlike House races, are so expensive that we usually have a good idea of who is in and who is out of a Senate race by July of the previous year. This isn't always the case (Jon Ossoff in 2020 being the best, most recent example), but generally if you're going to be a Senator in 2025, you'd be in the race by now. So we're going to take a peak at where each of the Senate races are, and kick off a full month of "State Of..." articles every Sunday as we wade into all of the contests of 2023-24.
(A quick reminder-this is ranked as the states most likely to flip partisan sides, with #1 being the most-likely. For the sake of this article, if you're an Independent caucusing with the Democrats, I'm only counting it as a flip if it goes to the Republicans, not to another Democrat.)
Honorable Mention: At this point, almost none of the remaining races are competitive. Tim Kaine (VA) and Angus King (ME) both announced they were seeking reelection, keeping those races totally off of our radar, and Amy Klobuchar (MN) doesn't feel like she's in any trouble, especially in a presidential year, even if it's unlikely she repeats her "wins every district" streak as she goes for a fourth term. There are potentially competitive primaries on the calendar in Maryland, California, & Utah, but none of those have their eventual partisanship at stake, so we're not including those on this list.
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| Sen Rick Scott (R-FL) |
I'm adding Florida onto this list after keeping it off in December for a couple of reasons. The first, and biggest, is that Sen. Rick Scott is considering a run for the White House, making him the third major Floridian to enter the presidential race (alongside President Trump and Governor DeSantis). An open seat would make this a lot more interesting, particularly if MAGA-acolyte Rep. Byron Donalds got into the race. But right now I think we're still looking at Rick Scott running for a second term (I don't think Scott can best Trump even if I think he might beat DeSantis, and this might all be posturing for a bid to take on Mitch McConnell in 2025 for Senate Leader). The Democrats do not have a decent candidate in the race yet. Former Reps. Stephanie Murphy & Debbie Mucarsel-Powell remain in the mix, but in a race where Scott's fundraising is basically an infinity symbol, if they're going to run, they're going to need to run soon. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| Dave McCormick (R-PA) |
Pennsylvania is moving down on our list this month. This is in part because Sen. Bob Casey (D) is running for a fourth term. Casey is as close as you can get to impenetrable in a state as swingy as Pennsylvania, and it doesn't help the cause for Republicans that he's got lousy competitors so far. Republicans dodged twin bullets when Kathy Barnette & Doug Mastriano both declined runs, but they're still left at this point with (at best) Dave McCormick, who is wealthy (and can self-fund), but also lost to Dr. Oz in 2022, and is not a great competitor (his connection to Pennsylvania is about an inch deep, compared to Casey whose father was the state's governor and their family goes back generations in Scranton). Casey will likely outrun Joe Biden by at least 4-5 points here...and Biden is arguably in the favored position in the Keystone State anyway against Donald Trump. As a result, the PA GOP is going to need a stronger red tide to take this seat. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) |
Also moving down one slot is Michigan, which is doing so more because I'm feeling bullish about our #7 ranked spot and less because I think this is less competitive. The entries of both Pamela Pugh & Leslie Love into the race may end up negating the goal both women have (of making sure the US Senate has a Black woman in the next Congress, which to be fair it almost certainly will anyway thanks to Delaware), leaving Rep. Elissa Slotkin the probable nominee for the Democrats to replace outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow. On the Republican side, it's still a lot of noise. The latest buzz is around Rep. Mike Rogers, a former congressman who would be formidable...if he could make it through to the general election. Rogers is definitely from the Romney Wing, not the Trump Wing, of the party, and it's hard to imagine another Republican that would be more Trump-friendly won't get in if it's just Rogers. However, right now the Republican Primary is just a bunch of air while Slotkin continues to solidify herself as the frontrunner on not just her side of the aisle, but the general as well. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) |
We're moving this up because the Democrats appear to have done exactly what they intended to do in getting Rep. Colin Allred into the race. While it's not clear Allred has a clear shot at this seat (State Sen. Roland Gutierrez is also considering a run, though Allred has gained pretty much all of the establishment support already, and his strong fundraising may make taking him on impossible), he's the probable frontrunner. It says a lot about the state of Texas that Sen. Ted Cruz has been weirdly moderating on certain issues (namely on international LGBT rights issues), and publicly stating he expects this to be a close race. Texas has become a running joke for confident Republicans, with them bragging that Democrats keep trying but not succeeding, and they're right...to a point. Texas was closer in 2020 than New Hampshire was, despite the latter frequently being called a swing state. To be honest, I don't know what the candidate who ultimately flips Texas will look like (other than I know they exist, and should be known by the end of the decade, but if Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona) or Raphael Warnock (Georgia) are any indication, it's probably not going to look like what we've consistently gone with (which is a series of white men running in diverse Texas). Allred, an African-American former NFL player who defeated a longtime incumbent to win in 2018, is definitely a different tactic for the Democrats-we'll see if the pass connects. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Sheriff David Clarke (R-WI) |
In a similar fashion to Michigan, Wisconsin has pretty much no obvious Republican frontrunner, while the Democrats have an easy pass in the primary with Sen. Tammy Baldwin running for a third term. This is higher because Wisconsin is the swingiest state in the country (Michigan is bluer), but it might move down if the Republicans can't find another candidate. Rep. Mike Gallagher, their preferred option, is out of the race, and so far no major candidates are biting. Rep. Tom Tiffany has flirted with a run, and if their House seats get torn up by a likely redistricting, Reps. Bryan Steil & Derrick Van Ordern (or State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, also in a position where his job is in jeopardy due to redistricting) could get them to try to run for a promotion rather than defend tough territory, but the longer this remains open, the more probable that something heinous happens for the party. Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke, who would be a poison pill in the state, has openly flirted with running, and would make a swing state fall off of this list if he was the nominee. (Previous Ranking: 6)
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| Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) |
Nevada stays higher than Wisconsin for two reasons on this list. The first is that Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) isn't as established as Baldwin, as she's only one-term into her tenure. The second is that the Republican Party here seems likely to get their preferred candidate, Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. Brown ran in 2022, but lost in the primary. Since then, though, Republicans have come around to him, most likely because all of the best options against Rosen have fallen by the wayside. Former State Rep. Jim Marchant is also in the race, and his connections to QAnon put the risk of a challenge from Brown's right in play. Brown has already had to stake some pretty tough conservative angles in this race, especially on abortion in a very pro-choice state, but Nevada is a state where Democrats have lost ground (it's the only swing state where Biden's 2020 margin was thinner than Clinton's 2016 margin), and so they can't take anything for granted. (Previous Ranking: 5)
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| Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) |
Unlike the other races, two questions remain in Arizona, and two big ones. The first is whether or not Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) will run for reelection. She has made every motion that she intends to run again, and her candidacy will put Democrats in a tough spot. So far, while high-profile Democrats like Nancy Pelosi have gotten behind Rep. Ruben Gallego (the de facto nominee for the party), Senate Democrats and the DSCC have been mum on what they'll do with Sinema, who continues to caucus with them but has refused to run in the primary. Polling shows Sinema in a distant third place, and it's still not entirely clear whether or not she'd help or hurt the left flank, but most Democrats would prefer she get out of the race entirely to avoid the confusion. On the Republican side, it's not clear who is going to be the nominee. Kari Lake, who barely lost the 2022 gubernatorial election and would probably be the frontrunner if she ran, has been more focused on rehashing her close election loss than acting like a Senate candidate. If Lake is out, you could see a lot of options, probably better ones, but I still think a Lake v. Gallego v. Sinema is most likely to happen, and honestly no one should claim they know what happens in that scenario, other than it's a Tossup. (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) |
We need to remember, the Democrats need to either pickup a seat in Texas or Florida, or they need to take 2/3 of the Top 3 on this list (along with hanging onto every other seat they current hold, including Sinema's) in order to win the Senate again. The top three are all states that Donald Trump is widely expected to win in 2024, and so these Democrats are going to have to do something only Susan Collins has done in the past two cycles-win while the top of the ticket is losing their state. The most likely of the three to do this remains Sen. Jon Tester (D), who has shown a knack for pulling off victories in tough reelection contests. Republicans are weirdly pushing for Tim Sheehy, who as a former Navy SEAL would be a unique counter to Tester's tough-guy rancher schtick. But Sheehy's business connections are already drawing eyebrow raises (his company Bridger Aerospace gets most of their money from government contracts, which as a US Senator he would be able to oversee funding for, setting up a huge conflict-of-interest), but more pressing is that he will be facing a sitting congressman in the primary, as Rep. Matt Rosendale seems intent on running to his right and looks like he'll probably enter the race. Tester beat Rosendale in 2018 (which is why Republicans are trying to avoid his candidacy), and I suspect Tester himself would rather face him, but either way...this is a tough race. (Previous Ranking: 3)
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| Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) |
Almost all of the major Republicans in Ohio seem to have dropped out of the race to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown, a sign that they are coalescing around Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who technically isn't in the race yet but has telegraphed he's a certain candidate. LaRose didn't support Donald Trump's claims of irregularities in 2020, but he still endorsed him anyway for reelection in 2022, so it's not clear what side of the coin he'd land on if businessman Bernie Moreno were to run to his right. Brown is running in a state that Joe Biden made closer than Montana in 2020, but I have it higher because Tester has proven his ability to outrun the rest of the ticket more solidly than Brown in the past (let's not forget, the last time Brown was up in a presidential election, Barack Obama was winning the state as well). I'm not entirely sure what the angle would be here-Brown maybe tries to keep some of the blue-collar counties from having the floor drop out and then run up his numbers as much as possible in the Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati markets? LaRose's views on abortion will probably help Brown (LaRose is VERY anti-choice), but I don't know how much-this feels charitable to even call a tossup, and is likely more Leans Republican. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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| Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) |
Tester & Brown, I can see paths for their reelection...an upset, to be sure, but a path. But West Virginia...I have no idea how the Democrats pull this off. Joe Manchin could outrun Joe Biden by 25-points...and still lose. It's not clear yet whether or not Manchin will even try to run again, but he's been telegraphing with bipartisan votes on a number of judgeships that he does intend to run again. It's clear that the Republican Primary will decide the degree of his loss. Gov. Jim Justice (whom Manchin detests, as Justice fired Manchin's wife, who was a cabinet secretary in his administration) is the better and more moderate of the candidates, but Rep. Alex Mooney (R) will probably end up getting the Trump endorsement, and his tenuous ties to West Virginia compared to Manchin would be easier to exploit. Still, even though some Democrats may celebrate this (I don't-we might not get a senator as progressive as Manchin to represent West Virginia again in my lifetime), it does look like Manchin's time as one of the most important politicians in America will come to a close next year. (Previous Ranking: 1)
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