Election Night Guide: Alabama through Arkansas

Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK)

When I initially decided to stop writing my blog (and then eventually reversed, instead deciding to just make it a much more part-time gig), I did so with the 2024 Election Night Guide, and I thought "this is probably the last of these that I ever write."  I have actually written election night guides as far back as at least 2008, possibly 2006, long before "The Many Rantings of John" was a thing.  They are incredibly time-consuming (this takes many, many hours of my limited free time to compose), and occasionally embarrassing when it comes to making certain calls totally incorrect.  But it's also something I'm very thankful for to look back on-I can see, genuinely, if I was right or wrong.  And there are moments of bragging (I got every Senate race correct in 2014, predicting the landslide victory for the GOP in the upper chamber that year), though there are far sadder moments of defeat (I predicted both a Clinton and a Harris victory, though by far less than most of those races seemed to most pundits those years, getting most of the swing states correct for Trump).

So we're doing this for 2026, and I'll start out for the uninitiated with a guide to the guide.  I will be doing, over a seven-day span, a look at every single state for the midterms.  I'll break it up over a week (with the plan being on the final day including a recap of where I land in terms of total numbers) ending the day before the election.  Election Day, for me, is a "distract myself as much as humanly possible" situation where I usually go to the movies (and generally do not write on here, even when I was writing daily), and then watch something like Bob's Burgers or a genre movie I've seen before at night, actively avoiding television unless I want to see something super exciting as cable news is both too anxiety-inducing & also too uniformed for my taste, and watching on Twitter and a cascade of election results sites the returns...followed by sleeping in and then writing a next day recap on the blog.  And given that's what we've always done, that's what we're going to do.

I also follow the Larry Sabato rule (as opposed to Charlie Cook) of not leaving a single Tossup on the map.  Politics as a hobby carries some privilege aspects that I try to be aware of (I'm aware, including for myself, that politics isn't the same as a football game or the Oscars, where ultimately it doesn't matter who wins-here there are life-and-death stakes), but I also want to go all-in rather than just saying a race is a "tossup."  If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but there's no pride in calling a race a tossup and not guessing who the winner is.

I usually start with a few comments about the race that I can't get a gage on, and then move into the contest.  This year, honestly, there's really just three questions I have, as by-and-large this year feels pretty straight-forward in a way a lot of elections have not in the past decade.

The first, and the biggest, is just how bad has Trump's stamp with his voters gotten.  Going into this cycle, it was a challenge for the Democrats-there were options in the Senate and Governors races (swing states like Nevada & North Carolina had solid options...that Nebraska House seat was a goner), but on paper this cycle looked good, honestly better than the map would've been for the GOP if they had to face 2028 or 2030.  But Trump is insanely unpopular, more so than at any time in his presidency, and with skyrocketing food & gas prices, as well as an unpopular war and a major wave of corruption that has reached almost Snidely Whiplash-style levels of obvious, it appears at least some Trump voters are done with him.  Whether that translates to them finally siding with a Democrat is a huge question, particularly for the Senate, given the Democrats would need at least two Trump 2020 states to flip in order to win the Senate.

This combines with our second point, which is that it's unclear whom the polls are over or underestimating.  2024 polling, despite a lot of protestations, was not particularly off, slightly underestimating Trump but within the margin of error (it's remembered as worse because Harris was leading during much of the fall by a bigger margin than she closed).  This year, there are a host of very close races in red territory that, if the Republicans can gain a few points at the close, would make the difference (and possibly decide the Senate majority).  I personally think the polls are under-counting Republicans, and will reflect that in some of my predictions, though it is also very possible that polls are over-counting Republicans less because they'll side with Dems, and more because some won't vote (a sixth year midterm, Republicans might just not bother, which has also been an issue for Trump in 2018 and 2022, neither cycle of which Trump was as disliked as he currently is).  And if that's the case, the GOP would be in for a long night, as it's pretty easy to get from 50 to 54 or 55 Senate seats if the R's crater at the end.

And finally-I'm curious if the the Far Left has overplayed their hand.  There are about a half dozen close/lean races this cycle where a Far Left candidate outperformed the moderate/establishment choice in the primary, and has been underperforming in polling even with a blue wave at their back.  I will find out as a I count (I always count how much I'm up or down at the end so as not to influence myself), but there will be hell to pay if, say, the Democrats get 2-3 red state Dems pull off the miracle for the Senate, but the Far Left gets a surprise miss when they insisted on getting their guy in Michigan or Maine into the general.  As we go, we'll discuss all of that.  But for now, let's dive in and see what's happening in our 2026 Election Night Guide.

(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for Governor & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness.  I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)

(Second Note: While I will occasionally editorialize on some of the candidates, I will be picking totally based on what I think will happen, not what I wish will happen)

Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL)

Alabama

Governor: In a rare rematch from a Senate race, we have current US Senator Tommy Tuberville (R) and former US Senator Doug Jones (D) facing off six years after Tuberville beat Jones in 2020.  The Republican dominance in the Yellowhammer State does not seem to be abating, even in a blue wave, so I suspect that Tuberville will get his second victory over Jones here.

Senate: Every time I do this article series there's definitely Senate races I kind of forget are happening because it's just a "cruise to reelection" situation, but in this case it's an open seat and I still totally blanked it was a race.  Rep. Barry Moore (R), who weirdly will be replaced by the incumbent he beat in a member-vs-member race last cycle, will get a promotion to the Senate with very little fanfare.

House: Thanks to a mid-decade gerrymander (which undid a VRA-designated redraw from the Supreme Court because apparently the high court doesn't give a damn about upholding its own precedents), Rep. Shomari Figures (D) is a decided underdog in the second district.  Some seem to think that Figures could pull this off, and if we are in a position where the national tides are lifting ships like a 14-point Trump seat, this would be a place it happens...but I have my doubts.  Figures loses by a much-smaller than he would've otherwise margin, but this is still R+1. 

Alaska

Governor: Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and this could not be better timing for the Democrats to go after the Last Frontier for the first time since 1998.  The party managed to get a single candidate into the runoff when Tom Begich stepped aside (my gut says he will run in 2028 for whatever congressional seat his nephew skips), and honestly that may be what makes the difference for State Rep. Jonathan "JKT" Kreiss-Tomkins (D).  Polling has shown JKT in a lead over the other three Republicans in the race, and while he has not hit 50% regularly, runoff scenarios have given him the edge over the top Republican in the race, businesswoman Bernadette Wilson.  I think this will take a few days to call, but ultimately D+1.

Senate: One of the most important races of the night, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), a reliably conservative but decidedly establishment Republican who came to power in 2014 ousting Sen. Mark Begich (there's always a Begich angle in an Alaska race), is in the fight for his life against Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who lost reelection in 2024 but still remains quite liked, and polling has shown her with a consistent lead.  Alaska races are notoriously hard to poll, but the state has (perhaps more than any other) been hit by the rough economic climate (oil prices have made basic consumer goods here almost staggeringly unaffordable), and Peltola has run the kind of campaign that gets a surprise win.  I will note that this is a tight race, and like all of the Senate potential flips (save North Carolina), I'm saying this with some hesitation (it's very hard to believe in an era where voters return-to-form that Dems can flip a double digit Trump state), but I'm guessing Peltola will get a lot of Manchin moments in the next six years (compliment). D+1

House: While I'm guessing pickups otherwise statewide in Alaska, Rep. Nick Begich (R) should be able to hang on against Superintendent Bill Hill (I), whose campaign has not really caught much fire.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ)

Arizona

Governor: Four years after Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) won a nail-biter race in the Grand Canyon State, she seems primed for a comfortable (I'm guessing mid-to-high single digits) reelection against deeply conservative Rep. Andy Biggs.  I'm not guessing down-ballot races, but I am curious how many of these the Democrats can hold/flip, as Hobbs appears to have some coattails and only Mine Inspector seems locked for the GOP.

House: While I need to mention Rep. Eli Crane (R in 2nd district) in case there's a proper blue wave, the big question marks here are in the 1st and 6th.  The 1st is probably an easier lift for the Democrats, given it's an open seat (Rep. David Schweikert went on a quixotic bid for the governor's mansion that he would've lost even if he won the nomination, so one wonders if he just wanted to retire).  I don't think State Rep. Amish Shah is our best candidate here, but that's a 2028 problem as I think he'll take it.  USMC Sgt JoAnn Mendoza (D) is a better option in the 6th, which she'll need to be given that Rep. Juan Ciscomani is seeking reelection.  Harris lost this district by less than a point, and Ciscomani isn't entrenched enough for me to believe that he can hang on from goodwill. D+2

Arkansas

Governor: Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders' reelection isn't remotely in question, but given her name recognition and link to Trump, I do wonder if she'll be toward the top of the VP list for JD Vance in 2028.

Senate: I do not care how many polls seem to say otherwise-no one is beating Sen. Tom Cotton in ruby red Arkansas.

House: If there is a true-and-proper wave, there's probably at least one Trump +15 seat that flips (I'm not sold on how big the wave is, but it'll probably happen in that case).  But it's hard to guess, and even though there's some vulnerability around French Hill (R) in the 2nd, if he's actually vulnerable we're looking at a world where the Democrats got 25-30 seats...and I just don't think that's real.