I'm not letting Tuesday's primaries go without weighing in a bit, even if we're a day later than I usually get this out (I had lunch plans yesterday, and evening plans, and...well, I have a life, I ain't make excuses for it). But here are where I stand after the elections on Tuesday, the biggest being in Illinois.
The biggest news of the night was in the Illinois Democratic Senate primary, where Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton emerged victorious, beating two members of Congress (Raja Krishnamoorthi & Robin Kelly). Stratton's win, at least on paper, was something of a mild upset, as Krishnamoorthi had led in virtually every poll up until the last couple of weeks before the election. In many ways, this mirrored the Maryland Senate primary in 2024, where an establishment favorite was taking on a congressman with a gargantuan amount of money (by all accounts, Krishnamoorthi has basically spent his entire time in Congress waiting for this moment, and still managed to fail spectacularly), and then lost when polls closed because there was more excitement around her candidacy (aided by the endorsement of the extremely popular Gov. JB Pritzker). In both cases, a Black woman emerged victorious, as Stratton (given the strong blue tilt of Illinois) will surely become the sixth Black woman to serve in the US Senate come January.
It's also worth noting that Krishnamoorthi & Kelly's losses come on the heels of Jasmine Crockett losing a few weeks ago. Three House members all losing in rapid succession, particularly given Angie Craig's precarious polling position and Haley Stevens being in a basically tied race in Michigan, has me wondering if Democrats are punishing House members & wanting new blood in Washington. It's hard not to start drawing a pattern here, particularly given the polling love for people like Graham Platner in Maine as well.
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| Mayor Daniel Biss (D-IL) |
The other big story of the night was Daniel Biss in the 9th district, which is open due to Rep. Jan Schakowsky retiring. Biss was seen by many (including me) as the heavy favorite, particularly given his noteworthy run for Governor in 2018 and his longtime tenure as a local politician (serving as both a State senator and mayor of Evanston). His margin, though, was honestly kind of pathetic given how many advantages (the entire Democratic establishment backed him), as he only beat liberal activist Kat Abughazaleh by under 4-points.
Biss's win was in part a victory over the Squad (who had gone hard behind Abughazaleh), and in part a rebuke of AIPAC (which had heavily backed State Sen. Laura Fine, who came in third). This makes it seem like he was a centrist or moderate choice, which is insane (Biss is very liberal, and will likely become one of the most progressive members of Congress when he's sworn in in this Harris +36 district), but more so that he kind of just wasn't that impressive of a candidate (and maybe his loss to JB Pritzker wasn't just about Pritzker's dominance, but also his own failings as a retail politician), and there was a win on the table for Abughazaleh if she'd been a better candidate. That said, this seat is likely off the table for a while for someone like Abughazaleh. Biss is only 48, and incumbents continually prove near-impossible to beat in Democratic primaries, so it's unlikely he'll have much issue in two years.
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| Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL) |
Incumbents are also challenging to beat when they aren't even incumbents, I guess. Melissa Bean, whom some will remember as being the Democrat that finally beat Phil Crane in 2004 (just to lose to arch conservative-turned-liberal convert Joe Walsh) became the first former member of Congress to win a primary to take back their old seat this year. The 64-year-old Bean will have no problem winning this seat in November, though it remains to be seen what kind of a congresswoman she'll be. Bean struck a very moderate profile when she was first in office, but her seat has changed pretty dramatically, and isn't the swing seat it once was. While she might still stay moderate, she won't be able to be so too strongly without putting her left flank at risk in a primary. Then again, it's also not clear how long Bean, who made a fortune in between her congressional runs working for financial institutions, wants to serve in Congress. At 64, this could be something she's looking to do indefinitely, or something she just wanted to prove she could do. Either way, she'll be part of a likely blue House majority in November.
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| Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D-IL) |
She will not be joined by her former colleague in the House Jesse Jackson, Jr., though, as he came in a distant second to Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller on Tuesday. Jackson was considered by most to be the frontrunner here, but he had little establishment support, with Miller and State Sen. Robert Peters splitting the establishment and left flank endorsements. This was driven in part because Jackson was found guilty of wire and mail fraud in 2013 (it's the reason he had to resign from the House in 2012), which most people did not want to have their names associated with even though Jackson's name recognition, particularly days after his revered father's funeral, might have otherwise gotten him the victory.
It's worth noting that Jackson Jr. spent a rather memorable part of his eulogy for his father publicly chastising Presidents Clinton, Obama, & Biden, saying they "do not know" his father. While his brother Jonathan (who is a sitting member of Congress already, and won his primary on Tuesday), chose to keep silent on such personal feuds, his brother did not, and you have to wonder if insulting the well-regarded last three Democratic presidents in such a blue primary was, even in a moment of grief...ill-advised.
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| Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) |
Most of the news on Tuesday came out of the Land of Lincoln, but not all of it, and not all of it was good news for the Democrats. In a Trump +15 open General Assembly district in the Old Dominion, Republican Andrew Rice actually outperformed Trump by 10-points, a pretty impressive margin, and running counter to virtually every other narrative right now that has the Democrats looking at a blue wave. This feels, to me, like a rejection of the recent move from the state legislature to redistrict the state, essentially gerrymandering Virginia to give the Democrats a probable path to a 10-1 majority, netting four seats, and potentially a House majority with it. If you're Abigail Spanberger or Hakeem Jeffries right now, you're seeing this overperformance and have to be worried that the Democrats may have overshot their hand, and will have very public egg on their face if this doesn't pan out (not to mention high-profile congressional candidates like Shannon Taylor, Dan Helmer, Dorothy McAuliffe, and former House members Tom Perriello & Elaine Luria, who until Tuesday were probably already buying new drapes for their future offices, and are now in a situation where their blue districts are extremely at risk). Much to watch here, but Democrats are likely to overspend & send in the A-Team (expect Obama, Harris, & AOC to start campaigning) given how much is at stake.
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