What Will Mary Peltola Do?

Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK)

Hyperbole is perhaps the most contagious disease on the internet.  Every single day, there is something that people proclaim is the worst thing that has ever happened, and that is certainly the case when it comes to discussing electoral politics.  But I will admit that sometimes that hyperbole surprises me, even when I get where it's coming from, and that's been the case in the past few weeks when it comes to a certain former congresswoman and her prospects for the future.

Rep. Mary Peltola's loss in 2024 stung for a lot of Democrats, not just because Peltola's initial election was such a thrill (a surprise victory in Alaska, a state that had not elected a Democrat to the House in decades), but also because it was such a close loss.  In a state that Kamala Harris was getting demolished by 13-points, Peltola only lost by less than 3-points, outrunning the Democratic nominee by nearly 10-points, a spectacular performance, and one that makes her a very attractive candidate in 2026 for pretty much everyone involved.  It has been heavily assumed that Peltola would run for the open governor's mansion in 2026, and polling shows her currently in the lead for the job.  Alaska has not elected a Democrat to Juneau since Tony Knowles in 1998, and given the state's unusually bipartisan state legislature, it's possible she'd win with a trifecta, giving Democrats the chance to reshape the Last Frontier's government in a pretty dramatic way.

But reports have started to leak that Peltola is talking to Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, about potentially running for the Senate seat (currently held by Republican Dan Sullivan) in 2026 instead of the governor's race.  In a summer where Schumer has recruited Roy Cooper & Sherrod Brown (and appears increasingly likely to get a decent candidate in Maine in the coming weeks), Peltola would be the biggest in an impressive line of recruits, one that would turn a Safe/Likely Republican race into a Leans Republican one, giving the Democrats their best Senate recruit in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008.

The internet, though (specifically Twitter) is furious that this might happen.  From what I can tell, there's a combination of anger at Schumer and at Peltola since the internet believes that Peltola is a "sure thing" for the governor's race but has no chance for the Senate, a sentiment that seems to be compounded by many believing that Schumer cheated Democrats out of their best shot at flipping the Ohio governor's mansion by getting Brown into the race for the US Senate.  It's worth noting, of course, that the cagey Peltola has not played her cards yet, and this is nothing more than gossip, but it made it high enough up that former Biden administration official Neera Tanden spoke up, pointing out that Peltola can do more against Trump as a senator than as a governor.

Let's establish some reality here because a lot of assumptions are being made, and it's very clear that those who are angry at Schumer are acting like, well, idiots (even if they are not entirely wrong).  First-and-foremost, it is Chuck Schumer's job to recruit the best Senate challengers that he possibly can-not all of the candidates that he will recruit will win (and sometimes he does pick poor ones, as can be seen by the push that Schumer & Kirsten Gillibrand are doing for Haley Stevens, who has run a lousy campaign in Michigan so far this cycle), but he needs to try to win as many as possible.  That's why he pushed Brown, it's why he's hoping to get Peltola into the race.  These are the best options in these states, and if they win, they'd get him closer to winning back a majority (which, for the record, it's worth remembering all Democrats should want).  Being mad at Chuck Schumer in this case (and only this case, I'm mad at him for other things right now too) is foolishness.

It's also foolish to think Peltola might not win, or that she's guaranteed a victory in the governor's race (just like it was foolish with Brown).  Polling shows her in a better position for governor, and if I were her advisor or friend, I'd say to go for that-it's the safer option, and the easiest route back into elected office, even if it's not close to guaranteed.  But I also don't know what Peltola wants-US Senator is a very different job than Governor, and she actively chose to pursue a race for Congress when she could've run for governor in the past (just like Brown).  It's possible she enjoys the role of a legislator.  It's also clear that, while she'd be an underdog, she could win (and there are other Alaska Democrats that could take that seat while she tried to get back to DC).  A good wave cycle can raise all boats, and we've seen people like Heidi Heitkamp & Doug Jones win unlikely races and go on to serve in the halls of the US Senate recently.

Because let's be honest here-Tanden's right.  Forget Trump for a second (though obviously she could hurt him too...not that she wants to be loud about that given he won her state)...if Peltola were to get even just one term in the US Senate, she would be able to do more for her state than as governor.  A Sen. Peltola would have the very real possibility of serving in a Democratic trifecta come 2029, one with a thin Senate majority, one where (as a red state moderate senator) she would take on the role that Joe Manchin spent four years in the Biden administration playing.  That's hard to say no to, even if it's not as safe a path as Governor.  If I were her, I'd have a tough time with that too.  One route is easier, not certain (it's still a red state), but easier.  Down the other road is a tougher journey...but at the end of it, if you succeed, is influence that would make her one of the powerful people on Earth.