The State of the Senate

Schumer or McConnell-who will lead the majority in 2021?

With the RNC currently happening this week, and with the DNC now behind us (with little apparent bounce as a result, and I have to kind of assume that's going to be the case for the RNC as well, though I may be wrong), one of the more traditional avenues for a "change in the race" has been taken from both parties, for better-or-worse.  As a result, with the debates the likely next major opportunity for change (but also, at that point, multiple states will have already started early & absentee ballots, so the change can only impact people who haven't voted yet, which we need to keep in mind will be an increasingly smaller percentage of the voting populace), it's worth taking a look at where the race stands, and so this week we're going to try to get to an analysis of the presidential race and both houses of Congress.  We're going to start with the Senate, as with the exception of Massachusetts (which won't be competitive regardless of who wins the Democratic primary), we have our nominees.

Joe Biden's selection of Kamala Harris answered one of the questions we had going into the math for the Senate majority.  Harris is a sitting senator, but she is a Democrat in a blue state where the governor will get to appoint another Democrat who won't face election until 2022; unlike Elizabeth Warren or Tammy Baldwin, Harris wasn't going to complicate the math for the Senate majority until the next midterms, and therefore we know for sure what the Democrats need to win back the Senate.  Essentially, they will need at least a net gain of three if Biden/Harris is elected, and a net gain of four if Trump-Pence is elected.  I'll be real here though, if Trump is winning the election in November, while I could see a way that the Democrats gain seats, I don't think it's logical to assume that they will get the majority.  However, as Biden is definitely favored at this point, let's assume three seats are needed below.  We are going to rank these based on whether or not they are most likely to flip in November to the other party.  With that said, let's get into the races.

Rev. Raphael Warnock (D-GA)

Honorable Mention: There are, for my money, four races that aren't going to go on this list that still warrant mention.  Michigan is the biggest choice for me to drop off this list, and if I was listing the ten most "competitive" races here, the ones that will be decided by the closest margins, I might consider putting it back on there.  But with Biden's margins in Michigan frequently approaching 10 or 11 points, it's difficult to see a way that an incumbent senator like Gary Peters loses with the top-of-the-ticket winning by that much without a scandal (as I'll mention a few times, it's rare for an incumbent to lose if their presidential candidate is winning the state).  Texas is still showing signs of being a swing state for Biden, and the Republicans are definitely vulnerable here, but MJ Hegar's campaign is not as good as Beto O'Rourke's was two years ago, and I just don't see a path for her even if voters aren't keen on Cornyn.  If Biden actually wins the state, Hegar does have a shot, but Cornyn appears able to outrun Trump by a little, and Biden's not going to win here by much...we're going to need a national double digit lead for Biden in the popular vote if Hegar's going to win Texas.  South Carolina has shown a few tied races, but Jaime Harrison's problem isn't that he's going to have a passionate 44% of the vote-it's how does he get to 48, 49, or 50%.  He's definitely going to get a "ran a good race" come November, but I don't see any evidence he's going to be a "surprise winner."  And finally, Democrats have so many problems in Georgia's special election (Raphael Warnock is running the worst campaign of any candidate of either party this year), that I just don't see a path forward.  Even if Warnock makes it to the runoff (I think he ultimately will against Loeffler), Democrats have under-performed in runoff elections in Georgia, and if they have already beat Trump, will they forget to vote like they did for Jim Martin in 2008?  I don't see a reason to assume they wouldn't.

State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-KS)

10. Kansas

Most people would've dropped this from the Top 10 list, and indeed the next time I do this list in October it might be gone in favor of one of the four Honorable Mention races.  But Kansas is unique for a few reasons, and I can't quite let go of the race even with Kris Kobach losing the primary.  Rep. Roger Marshall (R) is a sigh-of-relief for the Republicans, but polling has not shown him doing that much better than Kobach in matchups against State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D).  The assumption has been that this is due to name recognition, and that Marshall will gain in the end stretch, and Occam's Razor would state that's probably the case.  However, Bollier is running decently against Marshall, and Trump is not going to match his margin here like he did two years ago considering the blue shift of the Kansas City suburbs and the state's high proportion of white, college-educated voters.  This is a race where the GOP is favored, but they don't have the race won yet. (Previous Ranking: 8)

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK)

9. Alaska

We're moving two races onto the list, and the first of these is one I never would've guessed was close to this level a year ago.  Alaska is a state that Trump is likely to win, though probably not by the margin he did in 2016, and therefore Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) should be favored.  However, Al Gross, a surgeon and commercial fisherman, has run an unconventional campaign that's raised a lot of money & awareness.  He's an independent (he'd be a thorn in Chuck Schumer's side, I expect), but he got an opening recently with the attacks on the USPS.  Alaska is disproportionately impacted benefited by the US Postal Service & its future, due to the state's remote location and large rural population; to this point, Rep. Don Young even voted for a bill funding the service that President Trump has threatened to veto.  Gross will be able to correctly point out, though, that Sullivan didn't back the bill because he's unlikely to get to vote on it as Mitch McConnell won't bring it before the Senate.  Gross seems really intent on making this a central issue, which is a problem for Sullivan as this talking point is easy to understand (people can tell that the mail is slow), and going to put him in a position where he has to either defy Trump or risk a lot of sway-able independent voters, who won't even have to vote for a Democrat to get him out-of-office.  The attacks on the USPS had a lot of potential to backfire, and Sullivan is toward the top of the list of potential casualties if the Republicans can't figure out a way to get more people to their side.  (Previous Ranking: N/A)

Jon Ossoff (D-GA)

8. Georgia

We're also adding Georgia onto this list.  Unlike Texas, Biden seems to have a legitimate shot at winning here rather than an outside one, and unlike Texas, the Democrats have a candidate who can raise the kind of money required to take on a sitting US Senator in Jon Ossoff.  Unlike Texas, though, Ossoff has a major problem against incumbent-Sen. David Perdue, a problem that keeps me from moving this further up-this-list without a severe amount of polling showing Biden/Ossoff gaining.  Georgia has a unique elections quirk that requires a candidate to get a majority in November, otherwise the top two will advance to a runoff (this doesn't apply to presidential candidates, so Biden doesn't have to hit 50%, just a plurality, to win the state).  Ossoff plausibly could get a plurality, but I struggle to see how he gets to 50%, and historically Democrats have struggled to do well in Georgia runoffs.  One thing worth noting-it's almost impossible to see the Republicans winning the majority in the Senate without one or both of the Georgia Senate seats-if Ossoff/Perdue and/or Loeffler/Warnock runoffs become the key to a Senate majority, all bets are off on who wins.  (Previous Ranking: N/A)

Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT)

7. Montana

We move this race down slightly for a trio of reasons.  First, Iowa got way more competitive.  Second, Steve Daines has rebounded quite a bit in polling-while Bullock led from April through July, Daines has led in the last three polls to come out in this race, albeit by varying margins.  And third, this was always going to be a difficult race.  Federal contests are different than statewide ones, and Montana was never going to be in play for Biden, meaning that Bullock has to win over some Trump supporters.  I don't think this race is over by any means-Bullock has tons of money in a cheap state, and he is uniquely popular because of his solid handling of the Covid crisis.  Additionally, Montana is a large, rural state with an independent streak when it comes to electing its senators (see: Jon Tester), and shouldn't be discounted here, particularly with the USPS (an issue Bullock should be running on) so prevalent in the news.  However, this is an uphill climb for the Democrats & they'll need Biden to be doing at the top end of where his polls currently are to carry Bullock over the finish line (Biden can't win the state, but every point he narrows his loss by is less ground Bullock needs to make up).  (Previous Ranking: 6)

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

6. Iowa

All of the above races are contests that I'd consider still lean toward the incumbent party, even if by varying margins.  All of the below races I think are races that lean against the incumbent party, albeit by varying margins.  The one true tossup on the map for me is Iowa.  The contest is fascinating because Trump clearly has something of a lead here, even if it's not large (and certainly is something that could be overcome).  That would lend credit to Joni Ernst-it's very rare for an elected incumbent senator to lose while the top-of-the-ticket is winning.  But the problem for Ernst is that Trump's voters aren't necessarily translating to her.  Like Martha McSally & Thom Tillis, she's under-running him here for some reason, and while Trump is going to win, he's not going to win this state by much given current polling.  As a result, Ernst can't really under-run him without Theresa Greenfield being positioned to win the state.  Essentially, unless something strange happens, there's going to be either Trump/Greenfield voters or Trump/Leave-It-Blank voters, and Ernst can't afford either.  Gun-to-my-head, I'd probably still guess Ernst here-it's the logical choice based on history.  But polling would indicate Greenfield, and you ignore polling in favor of history at your own peril.  If you're donating to a race, this is the one that's probably the best investment as I think it's the race we might have to wait a week or two for because it's so close. (Previous Ranking: 7)

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)

5. Maine

This is moving down the list, but unlike Montana, it's not moving down because I think it's improving for the incumbent-if anything, she's in a tougher spot.  It's only moving because I think North Carolina is getting out-of-reach for the Republicans.  Susan Collins is the one Republican on this list I know will outrun Trump in her vote count-she's been able to get crossover votes for years & does much better than him when pollsters do also include a presidential question for the Pine Tree State.  The problem is that Collins isn't outrunning him by enough, and Biden appears to be doing better in Maine than Hillary Clinton.  Collins has not led in a non-partisan poll in 2020, and keep in mind that Maine is a RCV state, so Collins has to not only win, she has to win 50% or rely on third-party candidates who are probably going to rank Gideon above her (since third-party voters tend to value change).  Maine is a state that over the next decade should become friendlier to Republicans (white, rural, etc), so Gideon could struggle in a reelection campaign.  But those demographic changes aren't enough right now to save Collins-I think the last New England Republican in Congress is looking like an underdog for the first time since 1994.  (Previous Ranking: 4)

State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC)

4. North Carolina

One of my favorite accounts on Twitter, Tyler Dinucci, recently posted his genuine confusion over the North Carolina Senate race with the quote, "I don't really get the Cal Cunningham thing but it seems to be working?"  This is a really strong point-Cunningham was not the first choice for this race (several higher-profile candidates declined to run against Sen. Thom Tillis), but his polling is extraordinary.  Tillis has not led in a nonpartisan poll since February, and Cunningham has gotten 8-10 point leads from reputable pollsters.  It's hard to tell what's going on here (Joe Biden is doing decently, but nowhere close to that in presidential match-ups), and the assumption is either that North Carolina hates incumbents (historically, if your name isn't Jesse Helms they tend to throw you out after a term or two), or that Tillis is uniquely unpopular (he wasn't well-liked as House Speaker, and only won because of a wave election that year).  Either way, this is a dangerous place for the Republicans to be in, because they can't afford to lose both Tillis & Collins (and Pence), and right now they are positioned for all three to lose in just over two months.  North Carolina is also the first state to start absentee voting, so Tillis' window to reverse this is getting thin since in 11 days the populace of voters-whose-minds-he-can-change will begin to dwindle.  (Previous Ranking: 5)

Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ)

3. Arizona

I genuinely toyed with moving this race up a slot because it feels like a lost cause, but the presidential polling (which shows Biden leading, but not by an immeasurable amount), makes me think that the margins could close.  Martha McSally, however, is in a terrible position for an incumbent with just weeks before voters will start casting ballots by absentee.  Polling has shown her in a terrible position all year-McSally has not led a non-partisan poll against Mark Kelly since July 2019, and she is being grossly out-fundraised by the former astronaut.  In hindsight, the Republicans made a foolish mistake in backing McSally for a second race after she lost to Sinema.  A fresher face might have made this an easier field, but instead the state rejected McSally and she got into the Senate anyway, putting a clearly bad taste in voters mouths.  I wouldn't be stunned if she's able to pull in some of the Trump voters who are tepid on wanting to vote for her, but it's next to impossible to think that there will be Biden-McSally voters (Trump-Kelly seems more plausible), and with Biden continuing to show strong results in Arizona, McSally can't win if Biden does. (Previous Ranking: 3)

Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)

2. Colorado

The Colorado polls don't look that much different than Arizona's-McSally isn't in much better shape than Cory Gardner, and Gardner actually appears capable of winning over a couple of Biden voters.  The problem for the senator is that he's not going to win enough Biden voters.  Colorado has moved very quickly to the blue, with the party drawing great strength from the blue Denver suburbs (this is what cost Rep. Mike Coffman his reelection last cycle despite him being well-liked in his district), and they're looking like straight-ticket voters, to the point where the Democrats didn't need to recruit popular former Governor John Hickenlooper to run here.  That they did was the nail in Gardner's political coffin-Gardner lost the day that Donald Trump won, as it's too difficult for him to get daylight between the president, and Joe Biden is assured a win here (whereas it's still a tossup in Arizona).  As a result, Gardner will become a one-term senator for certain, whereas it's just probable that McSally & Tillis will.  (Previous Ranking: 2)

Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL)

1. Alabama

Cory Gardner lost the day Donald Trump won.  Doug Jones lost the day he won.  Alabama is a super red state, and while Doug Jones will do considerably better than Joe Biden, possibly by a double-digit margin, this is a super red state, one that Trump is guaranteed a victory in, and Jones isn't going to be able to overcome that margin even against a flawed candidate like Tommy Tuberville (Tuberville's baggage may make for some headaches for Mitch McConnell down the road, but that's a conversation for a different day).  Jones will lose, and you can kind of tell that he knows it as he hasn't been afraid to take tough stances on criminal justice reform that won't play well in Alabama...but will to a hypothetical president that has been a long-time admirer of Jones & will be looking for an Attorney General if he wins in November.  Yes, I am buying into the hype that what Jones is really running for right now is to head Biden's Justice Department, and the appointment of one of his chief competitors for this position, Kamala Harris, to the VP slot makes me believe in this theory even more.  (Previous Ranking: 1)