5 Thoughts on Last Night's Elections

It certainly feels like the sort of thing that should be taking a backseat right now (or perhaps it's the sort of thing that needs to be pulled immeasurably to the forefront), but last night eight states and the District of Columbia voted in presidential and congressional primaries, and while there weren't a lot of surprises (if anything, there were a lot of early calls), that doesn't mean there weren't stories.  Below, I recap some of the five biggest takeaways from last night's primaries:

Rep. Steve King (R-IA)

1. Steve King is Dethroned

Despite a lot of talk about who might be the next Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 2020 has been bereft of incumbents losing primaries.  The only incumbent who lost was Dan Lipinski in Illinois, and that was against a challenger who basically had as much institutional support as a challenger can get in a primary.  Last night, the Republicans matched Lipinski by finally throwing white supremacist Steve King to the curb.  King's list of racist public statements are heinous and well-publicized, but it took until 2020, when he had been kicked out of the House GOP caucus & had been publicly rebuked by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, before he would finally see the end to his political career.  Honestly, despite losing one of their own, Republicans have more reason to celebrate here.  With King replaced by State Sen. Randy Feenstra, this seat goes from potentially competitive to Safe R, and keeps Sen. Joni Ernst, already in a precarious position, from having to defend King on the campaign trail.  Feenstra is a devout Trump supporter, so don't expect a lot of change when it comes to the actual votes coming out of this seat, but Iowa finally ousted the most notorious member of the House GOP last night.

State Sen. Yvette Herrell (R-NM)

2. A Night for Rematches

Rematches, in both directions, have become the norm in House elections this year, and that was the case again last night as two of this fall's most competitive contests gained clarity.  In Iowa, Rep. Cindy Axne, a first-term congresswoman, will face former Rep. David Young, whom she beat in 2018.  Iowa's 3rd is one of many Obama/Trump districts, and so the question for Young and Axne is-can Biden win back some of the people who voted for him in 2012, or are they already a given for Donald Trump.  With public polling showing Biden doing better-than-expected in Iowa, Axne is likely going to be hugging him pretty closely-a statewide Biden win would almost certainly need this seat to make it happen; this district is one of about a dozen districts where the presidential victor seems like a genuine tossup, and that will trickle down-ballot.

In New Mexico, Democrats have another rematch, with Rep. Xochitl Torres Small competing once more against State Rep. Yvette Herrell.  This is a district that has gone for Republicans for decades, but also has a large Hispanic population, a demographic that Donald Trump has done poorly with (hence how Torres Small won in the first place).  Herrell was the candidate Democrats were hoping to take on here-they even ran ads to help her in the primary-but it's probable that Torres Small, who has been a dynamic fundraiser, will have to outrun Joe Biden.

Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D-MT)

3. Can Either Party Score a Hat Trick in Montana?

Arguably the state that had the most high-profile contests last night was Montana, where we are expected to see competitive races for the Governor's mansion, Senate, and House this fall.  It's not entirely clear either party got the nominee they wanted in the governor's race, where Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D) defeated businesswoman & daughter of former Rep. Pat Williams, Whitney Williams, while Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) bested Attorney General Tim Fox.  The Democrats have held the governor's mansion in Montana for sixteen years, eight of which were held by incumbent Steve Bullock, who is running for the US Senate against Sen. Steve Daines; this is setting up one of the premiere contests of the fall.  The House race is considered less marquee, but still interesting-Kathleen Williams won the Dem nomination for a second time (she was also up in 2018), and will run against State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R), who lost a contest for the Senate in 2018.  All three of these are achievable for either party; Donald Trump is expected to win the state, but Montana has shown a willingness to split their ticket in the past, even in the Trump era (just look at Bullock & Sen. Jon Tester)-how many Democrats can do the same in November?

State Rep. Christina Hale (D-IN)

4. Competitive Indiana House Race Takes Shape

There has been a lot of chatter in recent days about whether Biden is polling so well that not only is the House off the table, but the Democrats might gain more seats in the lower chamber (we'll address this theory this weekend).  If they are going to do so, one of their pickup options appear to be in Indiana.  Rep. Susan Brooks (R) is retiring, and last night State Sen. Victoria Spartz (R) won a hard-fought race for the Republican nomination, and will soon face former State Rep. Christina Hale (D) for the nomination.  This is a district that Donald Trump won in 2016, but by a smaller margin than either John McCain and Mitt Romney, and the Democrats have reason for hope in elections since.  Despite losing statewide, former Sen. Joe Donnelly did win the seat in 2018, albeit narrowly (by less than a percentage point).  If the Democrats are going to expand their majority, they're going to be doing so in districts like the 5th, which has almost twice as many college graduates as any other district in the state & makes up a large part of the Indianapolis suburbs, both demographics that have moved away from Republicans since Trump was elected.  The question is if Donnelly was the ceiling for the district, and if so, if Hale has the ability to reach that ceiling.  Worth keeping an eye on.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA)

5. Does Pennsylvania Race Spell Trouble for GOP?

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) won renomination last night, but not by much.  He was challenged from the right by a more Trump-supporting Andy Feehan, and Fitzpatrick failed to hit 60% in the primary, a pretty pathetic performance for an incumbent congressman.  While Feehan didn't have the president's endorsement, it was noteworthy that Trump spent most of the past few days giving endorsements for many incumbents, except Fitzpatrick & Steve King.  Fitzpatrick has been perhaps the most outspoken critic of Donald Trump in the US House (a low bar, to be sure), condemning him for his attacks against four Democratic congresswomen (including Reps. Ilhan Omar & Rashida Tlaib), saying that Trump had been manipulated by Vladimir Putin, and opposing Trump's Muslim ban.  This is particularly intriguing because while Fitzpatrick won in 2018 against a weak incumbent, he is one of only three Republicans in the US House to occupy a seat that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.  If Joe Biden is doing stronger in Pennsylvania than Hillary Clinton did (this is the case according to polls), Fitzpatrick cannot afford any weakness on his right flank for risk that Democrat Christina Finello could get in solely based on Biden voters alone if Fitzpatrick has to lean right to win the general.