Ranting On...the Vice Presidential Vetting Process

Is this the Democratic Ticket...?

You knew it was coming.  Anyone who follows politics knew it was coming.  Today seemed to be the day that the "vetting" rumors began.  Vice President Joe Biden likely will not announce for at least a month, possibly as many as 2-3 months, who his running-mate will be.  It's a bad idea to do it too early, as there is generally a polling bump and so you want to strategically add that person to your list, but it's good press to have a lot of swirl around it.  At least that's the conventional wisdom.  After all, more people talking about your prospective presidency, especially in a pretty milquetoast way (the VP really has very little constitutional power, and most of their authority comes directly from the president themselves, so ultimately it's more important if the VP is someone that the president trusts more than what the VP's actual stands on issues are), is great.  Particularly for Joe Biden, who has made a point of already stating that he will be picking a woman, there is a historical credit to every woman that's being discussed.  The first black woman on a ticket, the first Latina woman, the first openly gay woman...all possibilities.  And of course, if the polls are correct, whomever the woman Biden selects would make history as the first female vice president, and the highest-ranking woman in the history of the federal government.

But Twitter, which has been insane lately (let's be real-it's gone off its axis with everyone overreacting to news as if it's landmark when it's really mundane) was chastising Biden's selections.  How dare he consider vetting these people?  "I am walking from the ticket if he doesn't pick Candidate X!" and other such comments.  So I'm going to break it down here, as best I can, because it feels like either people are new to the political vetting process or smart people are trying to sway the masses to their preferred candidate(s) rather than be honest about what the vice presidential process looks like, and what the nominee ultimately will mean for the success of the Biden ticket.

...or is this the ticket...?

First, let's sort of lay down what seems to be happening.  Whether through confirmation from the actual candidates or from "people in the know," it does appear that at least five candidates seem to be being vetted at this point, and almost certainly that list is going to grow.  The five that feel like the rumors are coming from a credible place are Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN), Sen. Maggie Hassan (NH), Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM), and Rep. Val Demings (FL).  Sen. Tammy Duckworth (IL) also seems pretty probable that she's being vetted, though she's not playing the same game that other candidates (specifically Whitmer & Demings) are in pretending she's not being questioned (don't read too much into someone's chances by how they answer these questions-I've found that whether confirming or denying, that doesn't feel like it affects people's chances).  Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (NH) has purportedly put a kibosh on being considered for the VP spot, and has declined to be vetted, effectively taking her out of the running.

You'll notice right off that there are some names missing there, and I don't think anyone should read too much into that.  Though a lot of the vetting process is cloaked in secrecy & rumor, it does seem that roughly 8-12 people are initially considered & given the vetting process treatment if history is an indicator, at least to some degree.  It would be pretty odd for Biden to not consider more candidates, and indeed it's probable he will.  Frequently named figures like Sens. Kamala Harris (CA), Elizabeth Warren (MA), Tammy Baldwin (WI), & Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), as well as House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (GA) and National Security Advisor Susan Rice (ME) are probably going to show up as rumors in the next week or so, as the Biden camp (or these politician's respective camps) try to test balloon their names in the mix.  It's also worth noting that the Democratic Party has a weird history of floating a random name late-in-the-game that ended up being considered seriously last minute (In 2016 it was NATO Commander James Stavridis, in 2008 it was Rep. Chet Edwards, in 2004 it was Rep. Lee Hamilton & Sen. Sam Nunn and in 2000 it was the return of Sen. Bill Bradley as a genuine option), so look out for some mayor or former administration official high-ranking military official to be a part of the conversation (Lori Robinson, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Hilda Solis, & Michelle Howard are my current wild card bets).  As hard as it is to believe in a presidential election that has now been going on for years, we're still relatively early in the process, and it's worth remembering that only one of these women will be given the job of Joe Biden's running-mate, and most of them ultimately won't be seriously considered for the position.  Biden will likely get this down to 2-3 names in the end, to the point where they have been vetted so thoroughly that they should seriously consider the idea that they're going to get a call.

...or perhaps this is the ticket...?

The large public spectacle of the running-mate process & having a long public list accomplishes three things.  First, it puts Biden's name in the newspapers, and treats him a like president.  Especially when faced against an incumbent who gets to be treated "like the president" every day, making an important decision, the first really history-defining moment of a hypothetical administration, is the first time that Biden gets to show the American people what decisions in his administration will look like, and the kinds of leaders he's going to rely upon to execute his vision for the country.  As a result, the multiple names give Biden the first public barometer of what people think of his presidential leadership.

Second, it's a good time to actually vet the candidates, and a wider pool is probably smart.  None of these candidates have been on a national ticket before, and with the possible exception of Elizabeth Warren in 2016, none of them have seriously been considered for this position in the past.  We don't know, therefore, what might come up in a vice-presidential vetting process, and could disqualify them (it's worth noting that because of the secrecy surrounding the process, it's probable we will never know what might have disqualified someone).  But these are accomplished, longtime public figures-there are hundreds of past speeches, votes, public statements, newspaper editorials...you name it, it's probably going to be reviewed by someone, and that takes time.  The months of public speculation, gossip, and swirl keeps Biden's name in the papers, but it also gives researchers time to do their jobs.

...or maybe this is the ticket?

Lastly, and here's where I want Twitter to take a chill pill-this is also a moment of respect.  Getting to be considered for the vice presidential nomination bestows the idea that someone that is very close to becoming president (and may well become it) like Joe Biden, thinks that Candidate X is worth considering as a potential future president.  Even if Biden doesn't pick someone like Amy Klobuchar or Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren, having them be a part of this conversation is really good for their careers.  It gives them more stature for future potential national runs (look at someone like John Edwards, who was considered in 2000 and then made the ticket in 2004-Tim Kaine is a similar situation between 2008 & 2016).  It gives them more authority and press on Capitol Hill.  It allows Biden to start to forge real relationships with the lawmakers and governors who are going to make-or-break his legacy.  And it gives some splash of pride to a number of different states whose "favorite sons/daughters" are being considered for the vice presidency, showing off the value Biden sees in different regions of the country, and showing how he sees these regions as important to his administration's successes.

So if you're on Twitter suddenly having a panic attack that Biden is vetting someone as moderate as Klobuchar or Hassan, you need to relax and check yourself.  This is how the process works.  He should not just be considering the one candidate you have your heart set on-that's foolish, that's playing a bad hand.  It's not gaining any of the press that might come from a dozen or so initial candidates to consider, and it's assuming your favorite candidate doesn't have skeletons in their closet.  Klobuchar & Hassan are sitting US Senators from swing states with long resumés & Biden would be foolish not to consider them for his ticket.  If they might help his campaign, and if he finds that they'd make the best ticket to beat Donald Trump through his vetting, that's what this is supposed to do.  And if you want to get mad then, get mad.  But right now, while the Biden campaign is working hard to get through to find the right running-mate, don't confuse some of the public speculation for reality, and don't be so obtuse as to think that every candidate that is going to be publicly vetted should meet a specific, rigid criteria, as that's a terrible way to look at how to win a campaign.