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| Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
But I want to do one last look at the Senate races before we have a clear nominee (or a clearly contested convention), because it does appear at this point that most of the Senate contests are set. I do think that the strength of the Democratic nominee will matter greatly. As we discussed yesterday, Mike Bloomberg being the nominee could mean a windfall for Senate candidates financially, but someone like Joe Biden could be better for the candidates if he can carve a path in purple states in a similar way to how Barack Obama did in 2008 (think of what Joe Biden winning, say, North Carolina or Georgia or even Texas would mean for the candidates in those races). Conversely, if Democrats are unable to run alongside Bernie Sanders, Republican seats might be less vulnerable, and a seat like Michigan might be more in play than you'd think.
But for now, I'm going to not assume the top of the ticket is that big of a factor, and assume that the current state-of-play, which looks increasingly bright for Democrats, remains. Below are the Top 10 most vulnerable seats, with #1 being the most vulnerable for the opposing party. We'll revisit this in a few months once the presidential nominee is settled and we know where coattails may be an impact.
Honorable Mention: Two seats stand out as missing from the below list: Texas & Minnesota. I think that if Joe Biden is the nominee, or if Mike Bloomberg completely upends what we expect from a nominee, that Texas is a place to pay attention. I don't think that the Democrats will win there, but Biden is innocuous enough to get a lot of the voters who went for Beto in 2018, and if he can improve slightly on those numbers, that will matter. And coattails matter-in 2016 not a single seat switched sides from the presidential candidates. I don't think that happens again, but it could be down to maybe 1-2 seats that defy such conventional wisdom, so if Biden is given a shot to win, so should MJ Hegar (presumably the frontrunner). Conversely, if the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders, I think he'll struggle in the Midwest enough that Tina Smith of Minnesota should be concerned. Like Cornyn/Hegar, I don't think it'd be a slam dunk in this situation, but it'd be worth watching as while Smith's opponent Jason Lewis won't do as well as Trump statewide, he won't under-run him by much. If Minnesota ends up on this list at any point, the Democrats choose poorly for the primaries, if Texas shows up, the Democrats chose wisely.
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| Rev. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) |
This is the seat of appointed-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat by Gov. Brian Kemp after Sen. Johnny Isakson retired. The seat is unusual in that it's a jungle primary for the runoff, with the top two candidates advancing regardless of party if no one gets to 50% in the initial election. That's going to be a problem for both sides because while Loeffler is running and has the support of the NRSC, she has a serious opponent in Rep. Doug Collins, a longtime Trump favorite. The president's endorsement is highly sought-after in this more-pink-than-purple state, and if Collins gets it (entirely possible) or Trump simply refuses to endorse Loeffler, it could cost the GOP their "more moderate" general election candidate (as well as one of a very short list of women in their caucus). On the flip slide, the DSCC has not been shy about endorsing Rev. Raphael Warnock despite at least two other viable Democratic candidates (former US Attorney Ed Tarver and Matt Lieberman, the son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman). The Democrats' best shot at both of the Senate races in Georgia would be to win them outright, particularly if their presidential candidate is winning the state, but they have to hit 50%+1 to do that. Certainly in this race that won't happen if they have Warnock, Tarver, & Lieberman all running, so expect heavy pressure on the latter two men to get out of the race in the coming months. (Previous Ranking: 10)
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| Mayor Teresa Tomlinson (D-GA) |
This seat, unlike the other, doesn't have a jungle primary, so there will be just one Republican and one Democrat running, with the Republican certain to be incumbent-Sen. David Perdue. The Democrats have three serious candidates: 2017 House nominee Jon Ossoff (who has led in fundraising), failed 2018 LG Nominee Sarah Riggs Amico (whom you may recall may well have been cheated out of a victory in 2018 which surely would have made her the frontrunner in this race), or Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson (who has scooped up a lot of establishment support). The Democratic nominee here, whomever he or she may be (for my money, Tomlinson is the best bet and the best pairing with Warnock as a ticket), will need a couple of things to win. For starters, they also would need to hit 50%+1, which could be a struggle with at least one third-party candidate in the race (and possibly two); this was a concern in 2008 when neither Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) nor State Rep. Jim Martin (D) got a majority of the vote thanks to a Libertarian in the race forcing them into a runoff. The Democrats would be heavy underdogs in such a runoff (as Democrats in Georgia tend to vote more in the initial, rather than the runoff, election), but if the Democratic presidential candidate is winning here, this is a race worth paying attention toward as coattails could be a factor. (Previous Ranking: 9)
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| Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) |
This seat moves down a couple of notches for two reasons. The first has been polling. While the Democrats have shown some strength in areas that Donald Trump won in 2016, Iowa has not been one of them, and the candidate who has done the best in polling, Pete Buttigieg, doesn't appear likely to be the nominee. Secondly, turnout in Iowa for the caucuses was abysmal, certainly not compared with the strength we saw in New Hampshire, which makes me wonder less if Democrats aren't excited to vote against Trump, and more "just how many Democrats are left in Iowa?" Sen. Joni Ernst has done a great job of putting her foot-in-her-mouth in Iowa, particularly in regard to the presidential impeachment, and if the Democrats are able to turn the election entirely into a referendum on Trump, it's possible that a ticket with strong play in the Midwest (say a Biden or Klobuchar-involved ticket) might tap into a state like Iowa (and like I'll keep echoing, if you can take the electoral votes, you're in the running for the Senate seat), but right now Theresa Greenfield is mostly hoping for things outside her control, and probably needs the current Democratic frontrunner to lose in order for her to best Ernst. (Previous Ranking: 6)
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| Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R-KS) |
This seat, despite not moving up or down much, has seen momentum toward the Democrats. In a huge sigh-of-relief for the Sunflower State Democratic Party, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declined a run for the seat, which might otherwise have made the seat out-of-their-reach. However, we now have a Republican Party primary with no clear frontrunner, and a potential nominee in Secretary of State Kris Kobach who could be toxic in the general and who has been doing everything he can to get Donald Trump's blessing, including recent meetings with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. If Kobach, who lost the 2018 gubernatorial race by a lot, is the nominee, and if Trump has a weaker showing in Kansas than 2016 (polls have shown both Biden & Bloomberg within single digits of Trump), that could be enough for the Democrats to win here. Keep in mind that while coattails are vital, they aren't everything. In 2016, if Hillary Clinton does just a few points better in Missouri, Jason Kander probably wins his race. Democratic State Sen. Barbara Bollier might be able to succeed in the way that Kander didn't if the Democrats get Kobach and a solid general election candidate, even if Trump will surely win here. Bollier's victory would be the first for a Democrat since 1932, and while it might make her a one-term wonder, it'd probably be enough to get Chuck Schumer a Senate majority. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| John James (R-MI) |
Moving up this list slightly is the Michigan Senate race, which continues to be the race that Democrats should be worrying about more than they are. In 2018, John James, an Iraq War veteran, did surprisingly well against Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who didn't come close to the double-digit wins that Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin and Pennsylvania's Bob Casey enjoyed. James has out-raised Democratic incumbent Sen. Gary Peters for two straight quarters, a bad sign considering almost every other Democrat has out-raised their opponents in competitive Senate races, and Peters only leads by a few points in head-to-head match-ups. Most common assumptions are that Peters will win if the Democrats win Michigan, and most polling shows that will happen, but I want to put out three quick caveats here. First, why is James doing so well if Peters is "safe"-candidates don't raise this kind of money against backbench senators unless there's a chance to beat him? Second, 2016 proved that Michigan can go red, so Democrats should assume nothing on a presidential level. And third-what happens if, like I suspect might happen in Arizona & North Carolina, Peters under-performs the Democratic nominee for president? If that candidate is winning by 5 points, that shouldn't be a concern, but less than that and suddenly this becomes a real question mark, and one that could still matter for the Senate math. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC) |
North Carolina has had some dirty politics happening recently (particularly the Republicans trying to prop up the candidacy of State Sen. Erica Smith, who is too liberal to win statewide in the state), but it doesn't appear to be doing any good, and while they have avoided an inter-party primary, they're now stuck with Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican that is weirdly unpopular for a first-term Republican in a state that Donald Trump won. The Democrats could have done a lot better in recruitment than former State Sen. Cal Cunningham, but I don't think that will matter when it comes to actually winning. The state will be a top battleground, particularly if a candidate with proven support amongst black voters (read: Joe Biden) is the nominee, and Tillis' low approval ratings creates an opening for the Democrats in that it's entirely possible Tillis does worse than Trump statewide. This is particularly a problem for North Carolina, a state that famously likes to throw its incumbents to the curb. Currently North Carolina remains the state that is most likely to flip control to the Democrats according to these rankings-the better Cunningham does, the more likely Chuck Schumer wins the Senate back. (Previous Ranking: 5)
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| Sen. Martha McSally (D-AZ) |
This is movement on the chart only because I think the Democrats have gained so much in the #3 state on this list, because Sen. Martha McSally (R) has struggled. Her behavior during the impeachment trial was appalling, and wreaked of desperation. Her fundraising and poll numbers have been sloppy, particularly compared to the pitch-perfect campaign run by Mark Kelly (D), and I think she knows it. McSally has both the unfortunate stench of someone who is appointed (never a great look for an incumbent, and one that basically has similar odds to an open seat), and someone who recently lost (cause she did, to Sen. Krysten Sinema). Her making critical decisions for the state despite the state rejecting her is a bad look that she was never going to avoid, but having to do so on such consequential things as impeachment is rough for the senator. Like Tillis, I think she'll under-run Trump, but unlike Tillis I don't think that there's room for a candidate to under-run Trump in a state that could be decided by a percentage point or two for the presidential race. McSally should not be counted out-Democrats are still the exception, not the rule, in the Grand Canyon State-but you'd be foolish to not want to be Kelly right now in this race. (Previous Ranking: 3)
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| House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-ME) |
I'm moving Sen. Susan Collins up not only because I think she's lost her strong position recently, but because I think she's going to lose, and have felt that way for a few weeks now. Collins may have lost the day Trump won, but I don't think that's entirely the case (like it is for #2 on this list). I think she lost when she voted for Brett Kavanaugh, and if not then, then certainly the day that Mitt Romney voted to acquit while she didn't. Her "he's learned his lessons" when she knows he didn't was a foolish move to make from a generally smart politician, and while she will have countless examples of bipartisan support (any bill that's actually passed with bipartisan support to Trump's desk in recent years had Collins' blessing), it's probably not going to be enough. Collins will out-run Trump, but Maine should be blue enough that it won't matter, particularly considering that Collins won't gain from the RCV aspect of the seat. The state is moving red, and it's possible that the same demographics that help House Speaker Sara Gideon in 2020 hurt her in 2026, but I'm not predicting that cycle, and right now Gideon has a clear shot to turn Collins into Gordon Smith or Lincoln Chafee-someone that was once well-liked but got too red for their blue state. (Previous Ranking: 4)
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| Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) |
McSally & Collins are candidates I'd bet against, but not by much. The same is not the case for Sen. Cory Gardner (R). Gardner, like I said above, lost the day that Trump was elected. His candidacy depended on an unpopular Democratic administration (that's how he won in the first place), and without it, there's no way he wins this race. It's the reason why you haven't seen him try to take occasionally hard votes like Collins has, and instead stick close to the president, perhaps hoping for a second-term cabinet position or a lucrative lobbying gig come 2021. The Democrats doubled-down on Gardner (they didn't need to), by putting popular former Gov. John Hickenlooper as their nominee, and Hickenlooper has run a near flawless campaign for the Senate after a befuddled run for president (remember that?). Hickenlooper looks likely to get a second act (something other presidential candidates might not be so lucky to do) in DC in 2021, and may have a lasting legacy if he gets there as a member of the majority.
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| Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) |
Sen. Doug Jones will never serve in the majority, but his legacy is already assured. After besting Roy Moore, he kept Obamacare safe until the Democrats won the House, and kept his honor during the Kavanaugh & impeachment votes. His campaign is admirable, and certainly he'll out-perform the Democratic nominee by 15-20 points in November...but that won't be enough in a state this red. Republicans don't appear like they'll make the same mistake as Kansas GOP-ers, and so the nominee won't be Roy Moore, Jones' only real shot at a full-term. Jones seems to be aware of this, and is voting not like a Senate candidate, but as someone who might well be the next Attorney General of the United States if the Democrats were to win the White House. He'll have more than earned the opportunity considering what he's meant for the party over the past three years.
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