Why the DGA is Playing Long Odds in the Midterms

State Sen. Lynne Walz (D-NE)

This past week, Democrats got two very strong candidates in a pair of ruby-red states in the South.  In Alabama, former US Senator Doug Jones decided to run against the man who beat him in 2020, Sen. Tommy Tuberville, setting up not just a rematch, but (as far as I can tell) the first gubernatorial general election to feature two US Senators since the dawn of the Republic (certainly since the passage of the 17th Amendment).  In Nebraska, former State Sen. Lynne Walz has set up an exploratory committee to run for governor; Walz was term-limited in 2024, but she held a district that went to Donald Trump by 33-points, a gargantuan achievement given the letter behind her name.

Jones & Walz are on top of a really impressive recruitment cycle so far for the DGA in states that Donald Trump won by more than 10-points in 2024.  From key state legislators in Alaska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, & South Carolina to former members of Congress in Florida to statewide officials in Iowa to prominent government officials in Ohio, the DGA has kind of knocked out of the park in terms of recruitment in states that Donald Trump won by a large enough margin that, well, Democrats are likely going to lose.  In the Obama era, and exacerbated even more so in the Trump & Biden eras, ticket-splitting, even for gubernatorial races (where voters are historically more willing to look at the other party than in federal contests), has started to go out of fashion.  So is there a purpose to getting candidates this quality into these races if they're just going to lose?

Since 2009, twelve states that Obama/Trump/Biden won by 10+ points still flipped to the other party in a gubernatorial election while they were in office: NJ-2009, ME-2010, MI-2010, PA-2010, NM-2010, WI-2010, IL-2014, MD-2014, MA-2014, KS-2018, KY-2019, and VA-2021.  Given that all fifty states have had elections 4+ times during that run, that's not a lot, and that number is inflated by President Obama's gargantuan win in 2008 (making swing states like Pennsylvania & Wisconsin just barely inch outside of the regular 10-point margin).  Since Trump first won, it's only happened three times: Laura Kelly, Andy Beshear, & Glenn Youngkin, an infinitesimal number of races (it's worth noting that Kelly is currently the DGA Chair and Beshear will be for 2026, so they picked the right candidates for this job if they want to get more red-state Democrats elected).

But those Trump numbers underline that there's more going on below-the-surface than what we're led to believe.  In 2018, for example, Democrats got shockingly close to winning the governorship of South Dakota.  Same with Mississippi in 2019, and on the flip side, Republicans nearly winning New Jersey in 2021 and Oregon in 2022.  These are all races that the party out of power was able to recruit a really good candidate, like we're seeing this cycle, and then hope the party with the clear advantage falters in the process (which it's too early to tell if that will happen).

When you hear of quality candidates like this, you oftentimes hear "even if they lose, they'll help down-ballot" which isn't wrong.  While Jack Ciattarelli was doing surprisingly well in the gubernatorial race of 2021 he'd ultimately lose, Republicans picked up 2 seats in the State Senate and 6 in the General Assembly.  Same in Oregon in 2022, where the Republicans picked up two State House seats and a seat in the State Senate.  Winning, though, matters more (Republicans picked up 7 seats and the majority in the Virginia General Assembly in 2021 on the coattails of Glenn Youngkin's statewide victory).

But ultimately none of these candidates are doing this out of the goodness of their heart-they want to win.  They want to pull off that Kelly/Beshear/Youngkin moment, and find a way to become the very rare red-state Democrat in modern culture.  And to be honest...my guess is one of them does it.  Even with long odds, betting this big this many times is a really good way to try to get at least one victory, which the Democrats will probably need to get a clear majority of the governor's mansions for the first time since 2009 (technically staying in seats that Haris won or lost by less-than-ten-points could get them to 27, but that would mean flipping New Hampshire & Vermont, which at this vantage point seems unlikely).  And in an era where Democrats are outperforming in special elections, and Trump is increasingly unpopular, voters wanting to give the other party a chance, particularly when it isn't in a federal race, could be back in fashion.  People like Walz & Jones usually lose, but a couple of them have won in the past decade, and I suspect we'll see at least one who does next year.