The Future of Jacob Frey

Mayor Jacob Frey (D-MN)

We're doing some history lessons on the blog today, and looking at hypothetical House elections in the process.  Earlier today, we talked about Andrew Cuomo's fall-from-grace, and what he might do next in his career (potentially a run for the House of Representatives).  A different story from Tuesday's elections, though, also begs a question about a mayoral candidate's future, but in this case it's one of success.  Jacob Frey, unlike Cuomo, won his race for Mayor of Minneapolis on Tuesday, in this case actually defeating the young Muslim progressive who had received an endorsement from a member of the Squad, but at only 44, it's worth wondering where Frey's career goes as he notches another victory as Mayor of Minneapolis, given he has a surprising lack of options (and the Minneapolis Mayor's office is historically a terrible place to launch into a promotion).

Let's first take a look at the race.  While in St. Paul the liberals were winning a surprise victory with State Rep. Kaohly Vang Her (even Her seemed surprised she won), in Minneapolis we saw Frey win by a not small 6-point gap (people saying Omar Fateh, his opponent, got close are stretching the definition of "close" here).  There are a lot of reasons that Frey succeeded where Cuomo failed, and I think pretending there isn't a difference between the two is a bit silly.  For starters, Frey has been better for housing than most mayors across the country (certainly not the case for Eric Adams), so Fateh using similar attacks to those employed by Zohran Mamdani on Frey felt hollow.  Frey is also considerably more progressive on issues like the Trump administration (Cuomo was seen as cozying up to the Trump Camp in hopes of winning over Republican voters in the general) and the environment.  The biggest issue with Frey for progressives was his criminal justice reforms and his views on pro-Palestine activism, but neither of these felt like they were particularly catchy for Fateh's campaign, in part because I think the public has gone back to the center on criminal justice reform (this is evidenced by how poorly some Democrats did in 2022 & 2024, and how often "Defund the Police" was used against moderates) and the latter because some of the attacks occasionally read as anti-semitic given Frey is Jewish.  Either way, Fateh simply wasn't able to do what Mamdani was able to do, and he has left Frey with a third consecutive victory over a real challenger.

But Frey now is in a position where he either can stay on as mayor, a sometimes thankless job that almost certainly will result in his polarizing celebrity ousting him given the erratic nature of off-year elections (again, see Melvin Carter's loss on Tuesday as evidence), or he can run for a promotion.  But here's the thing-being Mayor of Minneapolis is historically a terrible way to get into higher office.  Despite being the largest city in Minnesota since 1880, the last time that a Mayor of Minneapolis won a promotion was 1948, almost 80 years ago.

That promotion was won by Hubert H. Humphrey, elected Mayor of Minneapolis in 1945, and then winning a race for US Senator in 1948 (which led to inarguably the most impressive tenure of a Minnesota politician, eventually serving as Vice President and the 1968 Democratic nominee for the White House before returning to the US Senate).  But every other Mayor of Minneapolis has failed in their runs for higher office.  Of the 10 mayors since Humphrey (excepting Frey) one of them have run for Governor (RT Rybak), and he didn't even make it to the primary (dropping out beforehand, as the nomination eventually went to former Sen. Mark Dayton).  Mayor Arthur Naftalin ran to be the nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 1966, but (like Rybak) couldn't make it through the caucuses.  Richard Estall ran for the US House in 1976, but lost to future Mayor Donald Fraser, who went on to lose a bid for the US Senate in 1978 before becoming Mayor.  And then of course there's five mayors who just lost reelection (Eric Hoyer, Kenneth Peterson, Charles Stenvig, Sharon Sayles Belton, & Betsy Hodges), and I technically should add Albert Hofstede to that list, except he won the seat back in 1977 after losing in 1973.

To date, Hofstede & Fraser are the only two Mayors of Minneapolis since Humphrey to not end their tenure with either a loss or at least one failed run for higher office while Mayor.  This is hardly an optimistic argument for Frey's future, and its gets worse.  Frey is not running for the US Senate next year, and it's unlikely that the victor of that race will be a Republican, so (given how often incumbent senators win reelection) that's not going to be an option for a while.  Amy Klobuchar is not particularly old, and even if Tim Walz retires in 2030, Frey would take a backseat to Steve Simon and Keith Ellison in that race without some sort of second act in-between.  Frey could stay on as Mayor of Minneapolis, but given how often mayors lose reelection, that's a risky affair.  Frey likely needs to stay in politics another decade before he'd have a real shot at being the undisputed frontrunner for a statewide office...and there's a seat a lot safer than mayor that he could run for, if he has the guts.

Mayor Frey with Rep. Ilhan Omar during
friendlier times

Frey has spent much of his time as mayor in a rivalry with Rep. Ilhan Omar, first elected to Congress in 2018.  A member of "The Squad" Omar, like Frey, is both well-loved by her base and a constant source of anger for her opponents (and this, like Frey, is just in a Democratic Primary).  In 2021 and 2025, Omar endorsed one of Frey's opponents despite him being the incumbent (and a fellow Democrat), and in 2022 Jacob Frey endorsed Omar's primary opponent.  In all three cases, Frey & Omar backed losers, and couldn't beat each other with proxies.  Omar is likely to face an opponent in 2026 in the Democratic Primary (DNC Member Latonya Reeves seems to be the settled-upon option), but unless she falls in the same way that her fellow Squad members Cori Bush & Jamaal Bowman did in 2024 (which I don't think happens...Omar has gotten much better at constituent service, and has swiftly won backing from the Democratic establishment earlier this year than she has in the past), they're both probably going to be in office in 2028.

And if I were Frey, I'd consider running against her in that election.  Frey can't continue to stay on as Mayor without putting his career at serious risk with a loss.  Being a member of Congress comes with a lot more incumbent-protection, and is a far more practiced launchpad for statewide office than Mayor of Minneapolis.  Frey's base is diametrically opposed to Omar's (i.e. they are not competing for the same voters, which is rare to have going into a Democratic Primary), and he's a proven vote-getter in a way that Omar is not (Omar wins, but never impressive victories, and in both 2020 & 2024 struggled to get the kinds of margins that Joe Biden & Kamala Harris did in her district indicating soft support from Democratic voters).  This comes with an insane amount of risk-beating an incumbent member of Congress, particularly one as well-known as Omar, would be a challenge (and if he lost, it'd probably end his future career), but the potential rewards (being seen as next-in-line for future high office, maybe even for Walz's seat in 2030) are too great to ignore.  If Frey is looking at his future, I think the long chess match he's been having with Omar over the past half-decade is his best chance at getting a promotion onto the national stage.