The Tricky Math of Geoff Duncan

Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (D? or R?-GA)

This past week, Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, the former lieutenant governor of the state of Georgia, announced that he was considering a run for Governor of Georgia.  This isn't surprising-the George Governor's mansion is open for the first time in 8 years, and a number of Republicans ranging from Attorney General Chris Carr to current LG Burt Jones to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene are looking at the race.  But the thing about Duncan is-he's not looking at as a Republican.  Despite having a very conservative record in the Georgia State Legislature and having run as a conservative in 2018 when he first became lieutenant governor, Duncan is looking at running for Governor as a Democrat.

Duncan's decision is complicated, and worth examining (hence today's article!).  For starters, his movement to being a Democrat is not really driven by ideology shifts, or at least that's not the primary driver.  In the state legislature, he voted with all Republicans (but virtually no Democrats) on a bill that would require tracking the number of juveniles who sought abortions.  While a state representative, he also supported conceal-and-carry, prohibited state-funding of sanctuary cities, required drug testing for state welfare, tried to stop the expansion of Medicaid, and voted to allow religious or faith-based organizations to decline to perform ceremonies that violated their religious beliefs.  This is textbook conservative stuff, and while occasionally you'll find 1-2 of these things happening from a major moderate Democrat like Mary Peltola or Henry Cuellar, there's no Democrat in an office as important as Governor of Georgia that would back them all.

Duncan's decision to run as a Democrat, if he does so, is entirely based on Donald Trump.  Duncan was one of several Republicans statewide in 2020 (including Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger) who stated that the efforts of the Trump administration to overturn the election there were unconstitutional, and that Joe Biden had successfully won the Peach State in that election cycle.  This led to Duncan having something of a change-of-heart about wholehearted support of the GOP, to the point that when he declined to run for reelection in 2022, he also declined to endorse in that year's Senate race between Raphael Warnock or Herschell Walker.  This was followed by the bigger step of endorsing first Joe Biden (and then, eventually, Kamala Harris) in the 2024 race against Donald Trump, making Duncan (along with Reps. Liz Cheney & Adam Kinzinger) one of the highest-profile cross-endorsements of that cycle, with Duncan even speaking on Harris's behalf at the Democratic National Convention that year.  This led to Duncan being expelled from the Georgia Republican Party earlier this year in the wake of Harris losing that election to Trump.

Which brings us to 2026.  Duncan said in an interview earlier this week with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he did not see anyone worth endorsing in the Republican Party, saying that they are all "embracing Donald Trump" and excoriated the "big beautiful bill" passing through Congress as being "an abomination of any sort of conservative values."  But while he didn't criticize the Democratic field as being unacceptable-for-governor (likely paving the way for him to perhaps make an endorsement down the road), he did say of gubernatorial frontrunner Keisha Lance Bottoms (former Mayor of Atlanta) that she was not "positioned well to beat a Republican."

Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D-GA)

Here's the thing-I think Duncan is right.  Bottoms is currently the frontrunner for the nomination, as the only other candidates running are State Sen. Jason Esteves and State Rep. Derrick Jackson, both of whom will struggle to compete with her in terms of name recognition.  The two best candidates (State Sen. Jason Carter and Rep. Lucy McBath) are skipping the race, and while there are other candidates that could come in and beat Bottoms from the Democratic Bench, the only one that feels like a slam dunk situation where she'd best her is former House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, who is even worse given she's lost two races for the top job and been embroiled in a campaign finance scandal over her 2018 gubernatorial run.  The Democrats are left with a very important race here, one that they need to put up a real candidate and compete for given both Georgia's position as a purple state (one where having a Democratic Governor could help in 2028) and the governor's Senate appointment powers (as both Sens. Raphael Warnock & Jon Ossoff are frequently name-checked as being national party ticket contenders in 2028).  Bottoms could win in a blue enough environment (or if she's running against Greene), but against Carr or Jones, I would wager the Republicans have the advantage given how historically big-city mayors have not done well in running for governor.

But Duncan has done little to quell Democrats concerns that they should sacrifice much of their platform to give him a chance.  Georgia is not, say, Mississippi where Brandon Presley was worth us putting up with him being anti-choice (something we discussed in that race a few years ago)-it's a purple state.  Jason Carter & Lucy McBath are left-of-middle candidates that could win this seat.  We shouldn't be putting up with someone who won't appoint pro-choice judges, who won't support left-of-middle views on education, gay rights, & healthcare in the state.  I'm not saying that Duncan can't change his mind here, but generally when this happens it appears opportunistic.  Sen. Arlen Specter, for example, struggled with this in 2010 when he switched parties, ultimately losing the nomination to Rep. Joe Sestak who ran as the "true Democrat" in that race (who then went on to lose the seat entirely to Pat Toomey).  It's hard not to think that Democrats won't say the same thing here, especially given (like Pennsylvania in 2010), there's a long-time Democrat already running.  When other recently-converted Republicans won the nomination as a Democrat (Charlie Crist in 2014, Barbara Bollier in 2016, Jim Webb in 2006) they did so largely by having the field cleared for them by the powers-that-be.

And it didn't go well.  Bollier lost, as did Crist (he'd eventually win as a House Democrat, but his initial foray allowed Rick Scott another term as Governor).  Webb won (barely), but party switchers usually run into trouble-their new base doesn't trust them (in some cases, like Specter & Crist, they've spent decades trying to defeat them), and they also don't feel super at-home in the new party either, espousing beliefs it's not clear are driven by a true change-of-heart or political expediency.  Duncan isn't the only person facing this concern in 2026 (Rep. David Jolly, who weirdly lost to Charlie Crist in 2016 for the House, is a former Republican congressman who is running for Governor of Florida as a Democrat), but I do wonder if he's done too little work to beat someone like Keisha Lance Bottoms...even if I do believe he's correct that Democrats do not have a winning candidate yet in the race.