The State of the Race

We are in the middle of the election cycle, and I have been asked quite a bit in recent weeks if I think that Joe Biden or Donald Trump is currently winning.  This is a question I don't have a proper answer for at the moment.  In December, I wrote about how Donald Trump was a mild favorite to win.  Five months later, I feel very much like his odds have decreased.  I would now categorize the race as a "tossup"-both sides are roughly the same in terms of getting the victory.  But a friend of mine pressed me a bit on this, and asked "gun to your head, who is going to win in November," and so I decided to turn that posit into a post.  We're going to do a "State of the Race" (if you're a fan of my "State of" articles I have every intention of doing one specifically about the Senate in the next couple of weeks, but my To Do list is really long presently so I won't promise it even if I have the bones for that article in my drafts folder right now).  This article is specifically about "if I had to call every race TODAY for how I think it would land, this is what I'd predict."  This will change between now and November, and I will point out some of the inconsistencies I'm allowing myself right now that I would never allow myself in an official prediction as we're writing.

President

We're going to pull the bandaid off right away-I will predict that Donald Trump wins as of today, primarily because he has broken the "Blue Wall" (the nickname for the states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, & Michigan).  I will note, to start, that I think that Biden has gained ground here.  In December, I would've predicted Wisconsin & Arizona as being red-that's not the case now, as Biden (and the Democrats) have done the ground work there and I think he'd come out on top, albeit in a tight election.

This map clearly shows that Biden has to pick up at least one more state to win.  That is a lot to put on an election, and it's not entirely clear to me which of these states it would be.  Nevada and Michigan stand out primarily because Democrats did decently there in 2022-Catherine Cortez Masto defied the odds and won the state, while in Michigan you have Gretchen Whitmer as the poster child for "how to be a popular governor."  We are talking in millimeters here, but I think both of these states are likelier to go blue than Wisconsin & Arizona are to go red (Pennsylvania being the likeliest to stay blue), so this is a very, very close election, and these are probably the four states that decide it.

Outside of them, I am increasingly wondering what both sides strategies will be as we continue into the Spring and Summer election season.  Trump has a clear advantage in North Carolina & Georgia, but these are states that Democrats are capable of winning in-Biden needs to start showing that, though, for them to be seriously considered part of the electoral math in 2024 (the closeness of the Senate means Republicans are likely ecstatic neither of their NC Senate seats are up, while Democrats are jumping for joy that Jon Ossoff gets a few more years before he's on the ballot again).  No other states matter (these are the only seven anyone cares about), and I'm not seeing any signs in New Hampshire, Minnesota, Texas, or Florida that the side that won in 2020 should be concerned.

Senate

I said above that this is not how I would predict this race if it was an actual prediction and not just a snapshot I know is going to change, and the primary reason I said that is the Senate and POTUS maps are not in alignment.  This map, specifically, has the Republicans flipping three seats (Ohio, Montana, & West Virginia), but in reality-if Trump won with the above map-they'd almost certainly take more.

Here's the reason why: since 2016, only one Senate candidate (Susan Collins in Maine in 2020) was able to win while her party's presidential nominee was losing the state at the top of the ticket.  That is increasingly impossible to do.  It's the main reason why I'm predicting Brown & Tester to lose in November based on this map even though they are running really superb campaigns.

But if this map happened, that number would double-Jacky Rosen (NV) and Elissa Slotkin (MI) would both win in this scenario, outrunning Joe Biden.  I do expect that Democrats will outrun Biden at this point (particularly in states like Wisconsin & Pennsylvania, where the incumbent Democrats are basically superheroes in their electoral prowess).  But if Trump is winning, at least one of Rosen & Slotkin are going down with Biden, if not both of them.  The question between now and November is-can Rosen & Slotkin get Biden any sort of victory in their states (which would ensure they get their W's), or will they fall with the tide.  There are other questions with the Senate that we'll get to in the State of the Senate race (namely, do the Democrats have a shot at a trifecta still, and yes, I think they do), but the big one for a snapshot situation is around Nevada & Michigan.

House

This was the main reason I wrote this article-to illustrate just how close the battle for the House is.  This is an insane margin, somehow even smaller than the current one, but it does get the Republicans a trifecta that would terrify pretty much every progressive issue known to man.

Obviously, this map underscores two things.  The first is that every district will count.  At this juncture, I don't think either side would get above 225 seats, meaning we'd be looking at a very tight margin on either side, and while that could change, I think individual races matter at this point for the House in 2024.  This is not usually the case.  While we're used to one Senate race potentially deciding control, that's not the case in the House, but looking at a map like this, if, say Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick were to lose his primary to a hard-right Republican (Fitzpatrick's district is Biden-leaning, but he's favored if he's in the general), that would get the Democrats a guaranteed pickup & another seat.  Every seat in a contest this close can matter, so watch for individual scandals, especially as we get to the fall.

The second is that I was somewhat pessimistic in a couple of areas for Democrats.  While certain places (Arizona, Oregon, Nebraska, parts of California & New York) I assumed Biden's coattails would help him out, on the flip side, I favored a lot of competent Republicans in marginal seats.  David Valadao, Tom Kean, & Jen Kiggans all represent districts Biden won in 2020, and could well win again (in Valadao & Kean's cases, that seems probable), but I am assuming they can outrun Biden by enough to get through.  If they don't, the House flips.

I also was pessimistic about Democrats running in Trump territory or new territory.  Six races specifically stand out as crucial here.  Currently, I'm predicting Matt Cartwright, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, & Jared Golden aren't able to buck Trump winning their districts, and that would cost them their seats, while Don Davis running in a new, tougher district I also have losing.  Since I have Trump winning up top for Michigan, I'm also predicting two marginal House districts (the 7th and the 8th) currently held by Elissa Slotkin & Dan Kildee, would go down in this map.  If the Democrats were to stop these six losses, again, they'd have the majority.  The House, more than anything this year, is a battle of inches.

Governor

Last but not least, we're going through the governor's mansions.  I'll be honest-this year is super boring for governor's.  There's still the giant question mark over whether or not Phil Scott will run for reelection in Vermont (my working theory is he's waiting to see if Bernie Sanders retires or not, as he could easily run an Angus King-style campaign and win).  If he retires, this flips, if he doesn't it doesn't.  It's that simple.

So the only two races that matter are New Hampshire & North Carolina, and in both cases I say the Democrats are currently favored.  Biden appears likely to win in New Hampshire, and Chris Sununu's weird sharp right turn is only going to hurt the Republicans (likely former Sen. Kelly Ayotte) in their quest to win back this mansion.  Add in that this is the best way to combat the New Hampshire Republican trifecta, and I think Democrats get the only flip on the map.

On the other side, I think that Attorney General Josh Stein is favored in North Carolina.  This shouldn't be a win for the Democrats-they've held the office for eight years, and Trump likely wins this state in November.  But nominating Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, maybe the most extreme Republican running for a major race in the country in 2024 (that's not hyperbole-I truly mean that) puts the Democrats in the position where we will see a number of Trump/Stein voters similar to how we saw a number of Trump/Cooper voters in 2020, enough to get Stein the victory.

The Lowdown

All-in-all, this is a rough picture for Democrats.  Not only are they losing all three branches of federal government, they're also losing them by tiny margins.  The good news is-they're still over 6 months out from the election, and the Republican nominee is currently on trial in NYC.  The bad news is-every day they don't regain the leads is another day that this becomes less about campaigning and more about blaming.  In the digital age where everyone wants to be first, if Biden is at the numbers he's currently at by late September, an upset becomes less likely not because of Biden's lack of time to do it, but more because his party will throw him under the bus far before votes are actually cast.  The blame game in a tight race can oftentimes become self-fulfilling prophecy.