The State of the Republican Primaries

Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC)

Former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley announced today that she is running for president (or announced she will announce...politics is weird).  Haley is, by pretty much all definitions, what you would consider a "serious" candidate for president in terms of her qualifications.  She's held a high-ranking cabinet position as well as served two terms as governor of South Carolina.  She has experience on domestic & foreign policy issues, handles herself relatively well in interviews & on the stump, and has run competitive elections (specifically her first election, which maybe shouldn't have been competitive, but that's a conversation for a different day).  Regardless of your perspective on her politics (I, personally, don't agree with her on virtually anything), she is not a gadfly, and were she to be the nominee, she would be the first woman and first person-of-color to lead a Republican ticket.

Haley, though, is not what you'd consider a "serious" threat at this point to being the Republican nominee, and since we haven't discussed the presidential race in a while (we skipped it during the midterms), I figured that Haley's candidacy warrants us looking at a prosaic and occasionally maligned framing device that I think will at least help illustrate why she is at once a candidate that we will hear from throughout the next year, particularly as she'll qualify for debate stages, and also why I don't think she'll be the nominee: the "political lane."  In my opinion, there are currently four lanes for the Republican nomination; this will change (it's less about lanes in modern politics as involvement in the nominating process becomes more involved & more people vote, and more so become about candidate vs. candidate), but right now I think you've got four lanes, and Haley's is one of the most crowded and least interesting lanes.  We'll start with the most prominent one, and still the one that I think is the most likely (albeit less likely than a few months ago) to be the nominee: the Trump Lane.

President Donald Trump (R-FL)

1. The Trump Lane

Until today, former President Donald Trump was the only major candidate in the race for the Republican nomination, though you'll be forgiven for not realizing Trump was officially running, as his campaign has largely been a series of social media posts and jabs via surrogates (to be fair, that was also most of his presidency).  Trump's entry into the race, at least from my vantage point, was likely to try and make it harder for Attorney General Merrick Garland to convict him on a number of legal fronts, including related to his storage of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago and his association with the terrorist attacks on January 6th.  You could argue that Trump has not been in this weak of a position since 2015 in his quest to take the presidency, and there's clearly an appetite for Trump to step aside for a younger opponent to take on Biden.  There's also the very real possibility that before the November 2024 elections, Trump will be indicted on one of the many criminal inquiries he's under investigation for, which would make campaigning difficult.

But I say Trump is the frontrunner for three reasons.  First, while he doesn't have as strong of support as he used to, he does have a core, devoted following in the Republican Party that will stick with him as long as he runs.  In a multi-candidate race (which the GOP will almost certainly face), there's an increasing chance he'd win in a plurality.  Two, Republicans seem reluctant to attack him even though they saw that not doing so in 2016 was a big mistake.  Trump will happily go after any of the frontrunners (just ask Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz) that are facing him, but because of his vengeful attitude (and the very real threat he could run third party if he doesn't get the nomination, stealing away crucial votes that the Republican nominee would need), they don't want to reciprocate in the same way.  And third, as we'll see-the Republican bench is weak.  Much of the best candidates either have no chance, seem disinclined to run, or were driven out of the party in the past six years.  Trump has proven twice that he can win or come very close-it's not clear any other Republican can.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)

2. The DeSantis Lane

That includes Gov. Ron DeSantis, the Florida chief executive who is generally considered to be Trump's chief rival for the nomination.  DeSantis is well-liked by the MAGA wing of the party for taking on red meat social issues (specifically transgender rights and immigration) that he has basically stolen pages out of the Trump textbook in to "own the libs" (nothing about that sentence made me happy to type it, but that's what Republican politics asks for in 2023).  DeSantis also seems to be a savvier politician than Trump, managing to actually grow his reelection margin in Florida in 2022, and showing some patience by refusing to enter the race until May at the latest.  DeSantis is smartly using his perch as Trump's chief rival to sort of a "Schrodinger's Candidacy" scenario, hoping that at least 1-2 chief rivals flame out before he even enters the race, since DeSantis knows the media will take him seriously, as will donors.

DeSantis' problems, though, lie in a couple of things.  First, he's not likable in the way that Trump is.  He's stiff on the stump, he doesn't come across as genuine (Trump, for all of his faults, is very much himself in every public appearance he makes & that helps with relating to voters), and his voice is high-pitched & whiny.  That might sound mean, but it's real-Trump will pretty quickly adapt a policy of mocking DeSantis's voice & speech patterns in the same way he did Jeb Bush, and you can expect Saturday Night Live to do the same.  DeSantis did very well in Florida, but that's a rapidly-shifting state that he rode the wave on...these sorts of social issue plays may work in the primary (and winning the primary is extremely important, probably more important, than what you can do to win the general), but what I've seen so far is a pale imitation of Trump...that didn't work when Mitt Romney tried to be an imitation of George W. Bush (or when Hillary Clinton tried to be Barack Obama).

Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) with Sen. Tim
Scott (R-SC)

3. The Establishment Lane

Here is where Haley would fit in, but she's not the only one trying for this spot.  You'll also see names that will likely be bandied about seriously (former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Vice President Mike Pence, Gov. Chris Sununu, Sen. Tim Scott, Gov. Glenn Youngkin) and slightly less seriously (Govs. Asa Hutchinson, Chris Christie, & Larry Hogan are looking at presidential runs...why, exactly?).  But the problem here is there's a lot of options, and this is not a big swath of voters.  Haley has hinted about how her youth & gender might be a good counterargument to Biden, and she's not wrong...but Republican voters don't agree with her.  The same with someone like Tim Scott, who is an excellent retail politician & arguably the most talented politician looking at running (give or take Trump) in terms of sheer campaign ability, but where exactly are the voters who will get out for him?  Even if there was only one person in this lane, 2016 proved there's not a lot of voters whose #1 concern in the GOP is electability, and sending the best candidate to the general election.  This is almost exclusively a Democratic concern, not a Republican one, and if you want proof of that you should look who at who currently occupies the White House or the Senate Majority right now.

Reps. Boebert, Gaetz, & Greene

4. The Wild Card Lane

I'm honestly more intrigued by this option.  The big question here is-what happens if Trump gets arrested (very possible) and DeSantis proves to be a joke or one whom MAGA crowds hate because Trump tells them to (also very possible).  The assumption is that's where the opening for someone like Haley or Pence or Youngkin could come in...but that's not how politics work, not in the post-Trump era.  The voters up for grabs would be MAGA voters, and they are going to be more willing to get behind an unorthodox candidacy, not someone who is doing interviews on CNN, but someone who is taking the Trump 2016 route to the presidency.

This lane features very few names that you'd expect in a Republican presidential race, mostly because Trump is sucking up this oxygen.  Sen. Ted Cruz has worked hard to try to get this spot, but like DeSantis, the likability factor is going to be a challenge with MAGA crowds who already rejected Cruz in 2016.  Instead, I think this would be filled with names like Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Donald Trump Jr., Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Lauren Boebert, & Kari Lake.  These are not what you'd normally think of as presidential candidates, and in most cases I doubt very seriously they'd run (or have the fundraising apparatus to run).  But if Trump totally implodes, I think making assumptions that DeSantis or an establishment lane politician will take his place is more Republican backroom wishful thinking than reality.