I have been very busy this week both at work & outside of it (I get a three-day weekend, though, so hopefully I'll soon be relaxing a bit), hence why I didn't get our usual "day after" article out about the primaries this week, but I didn't want to neglect the contests in Connecticut, Vermont, Wisconsin, & Minnesota. The biggest election on the ballot (in terms of looking to November) wasn't really contested. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is a mild favorite to win a third term, but Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) recently cleared the field, and has to be looking at the recent run of solid polling for Democrats in places like Pennsylvania, Arizona, & Georgia and thinking "I represent a state that went for Biden in 2020...if those marginal states can go blue, why can't Wisconsin?" It's honestly a good question, and I'd love to see some polling soon. But there were competitive races on the ballot on Tuesday, and it's worth seeing how they will impact the midterm elections which are less than three months away.
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| Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) |
The biggest news was not an incumbent losing, but an incumbent barely winning. Rep. Ilhan Omar, who represents the bluest district in Minnesota and is one of the founding members of the liberal "Squad" caucus that includes Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez & Rashida Tlaib, barely beat back former City Councilman Don Samuels in the Democratic primary, which is a de facto general election given the district's very progressive slant. Omar's close call was a surprise, though perhaps it shouldn't have been. No incumbent Democrat in the House was outrun by Joe Biden's numbers in their district as much as Omar, winning the seat by 39-points while Biden was winning it by 63-points. Samuels was championed by Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who recently won a commanding reelection, and while he has not indicated as such, you have to assume this was a trial balloon of sorts. Frey & Omar immediately shared attacks coming out of the primary, hardly a sign of unity (though, again, in this district it doesn't matter), and in a state where Tim Walz looks like he'll likely win reelection in November and both of the state's senators aren't going anywhere, the 41-year-old mayor has to be eyeing Omar's squeaker victory as a potential place to get onto the national stage in 2024.
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| Rep-Elect Brad Finstad (R-MN) |
The other big news in Minnesota was in the first congressional district, which held a special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R). Republican State Rep. Brad Finstad won the seat, but by only 4-points, despite Donald Trump winning this seat two years ago by 10-points. Republicans will be quick to point out that Finstad actually did better than Hagedorn in his last election, but that's not really a great point in their favor given that this is supposed to be an environment where Republicans outperform Trump, given both the midterm election and that there are more Biden districts than Trump districts in the House. On top of recent over-performances in Nebraska and Kansas, it's becoming clear that the best driver for Democratic turnout in midterms is going to be on abortion rights & overturning the Dobbs decision through Congress. Finstad won, but there are districts a lot more marginal that are currently held by Republicans that could be vulnerable if Democrats outperform like they did on Tuesday.
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| Tim Michels (R-WI) |
While the Wisconsin Senate race was a status quo victory for Johnson & Barnes, in the governor's race, it was a huge face-off that once again went to a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate. Though former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch started out as the favorite to take on incumbent-Gov. Tony Evers (D), she was displaced by businessman Tim Michels, who has never won a Republican primary before despite races for State Senate and US Senate in 1998 and 2004, respectively. Michels is to the right of Kleefisch, and though he's clearly attempting a pivot (initially removing an endorsement from Trump from his website after the primary before adding it back), he's made a total abortion ban and overturning the 2020 election (which is not legally possible) central to his campaign. Michels is yet another Republican running for major office in 2022 as a political novice against a long-time Democratic officeholder (Evers has held statewide office for almost 12 years), and similar to Republicans like Mehmet Oz & JD Vance, his connection to the state he's running in is tangential at best: Michels has spent most of the past decade living in Connecticut rather than Wisconsin, an issue Evers (who has lived in the state his whole life, even for college) will surely bring up in the coming weeks.
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| State Sen. Becca Balint (D-VT) |
In Vermont, Sen. Pat Leahy (the only Senate Democrat retiring in 2022 by choice) saw his successor chosen, and it went as expected, with Rep. Peter Welch (D) winning the Democratic primary, which in sapphire-blue Vermont is tantamount to a general election victory. Welch, at the age of 75, is a questionable choice to be a freshman senator (particularly for a small state, how much tenure will be able to accrue when he'll be in his 80's before he's done with his first term?), but with him out of the House, Democrats have an opportunity to correct a 231-year injustice. Vermont is the last of all fifty states to send a woman to Congress, and the Democrats nominated State Sen. President Becca Balint, who is assured a win this fall, and will in the process become the first woman to represent the state in DC. Balint, who is just 54 (a mere infant by the standards of the elderly Vermont congressional delegation) may not be in the House for long. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who will be 83 on Election Day in 2024, will endure a lot of retirement rumors in the coming months, particularly if Joe Biden runs for reelection & Sanders' shot at becoming president is closed forever. Were he to retire, Balint's spot as the sole member of the House would put her in a position to succeed one of the country's most famous progressive legislators.
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| State Sen. Pat Ryan (D-NY) |
In the wake of over-performances in Minnesota, Nebraska, & Kansas, it's clear at this point that Democrats are enjoying some sort of bounce electorally from their pro-choice base reacting to the Dobbs Supreme Court decision. What that bounce ultimately entails for November (and if it can be sustained for another three months) is not clear, but what is clear is that it's worth keeping an eye on. So far this has not yielded an unexpected congressional win, but that's possibly going to change in New York in two weeks. The 19th district, which is being redistricted slightly in a few months so it's entirely possible both of the candidates (Democratic State Sen Pat Ryan and Republican County Executive Marc Molinaro) are members of the next Congress, is a very swingy district, going for Biden +2 in 2020 but for Trump +7 in 2016. The seat is being vacated by Antonio Delgado, who resigned to run for lieutenant governor, so it wouldn't be a pickup for the Democrats if they won, but given this is a Biden +2 district that went for Trump in 2016, it's the sort of seat the Republicans should win in November if they're regaining their majority. If they don't, it's worth wondering just how much water is in the potential midterm red wave.
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